Tribal Share Discussion Threads

[billf2003] 28/1/2009 11:26

Tribal Group is one of the listed service suppliers to the Public Sector that I rate highly since its refocusing in 2007. The good news is that it has released a positive statement on trading for the year to 31 December 2008 – "it is confident the Group will perform in line with its expectations for 2008". I would expect an annualised profit of around £12M (eps around 14p) – and with the new acquisition, annualised revenue in excess of £200M going forward.

However, I note some caution, both in the wording of the trading statement – e.g. "our business model continued to prove resilient" - and the statement that Tribal entered "the new financial year with approximately 38% of 2009 planned revenue already committed", disappointingly less than the 40% reported going into 2008 and, given Tribal's supposed focus on longer-term projects, a figure that I would regard as quite low. I somehow feel that Tribal's confidence on its ability to achieve significant organic growth in 2009 is somewhat muted.

However, I suspect that this is no more than would expect in the current financial environment, and I would fully expect Tribal to use its "resilient" business model to help it avoid cost wherever possible and achieve some profit growth in 2009. Tribal has made great steps forward since the disposal of it Mercury Health venture, and I remain a strong supporter.

[bletherer] 28/1/2009 11:16

Liable to be strong resistance at £1, but I liked the statement. I'll continue to hold.

[qs9] 28/1/2009 07:14

decent statement...

[qs9] 16/1/2009 08:10

Looks a good strategic fit, need to work through numbers, but statement says earning enhanching this year.....very interesting.

[qs9] 11/1/2009 21:33

Next few days could be key to where this moves IMO, breakthrough £1 will be good sign IMO, any chartists knocking around here?

[qs9] 08/1/2009 20:36

Still going....!

[qs9] 05/1/2009 18:21

Kiss of death usually huntie2, but relative strength looks good IMO. ANy chartists got a view?

[huntie2] 05/1/2009 17:59

topped up again, today, so hope you are right QS9!

[qs9] 05/1/2009 10:22

Hopefully the bounce will continue, trading update cannot be too far off, if debt is reducing from the previously reported c.£17.5m (DYOR) then this IMO should begin to look cracking value again....

[qs9] 11/11/2008 20:16

Trading in line, and off 30%, wow.

[qs9] 31/10/2008 06:27

Trading in line, debt (for latest deal) manageable and IMO should be paid down reasonably quickly given cash flows, decent sector to be in (Keynesian spending by government may continue to help likes of TRB IMO).....all lead to this IMO being oversold.....DYOR

[the_beagle] 21/10/2008 16:54

On 28/8 Henry Pitman (the founder) sold his holding down from 11.6% to 6.6% and stated that he had "no intention to reduce further in the forseable future". On 15/10 (7 weeks later) he reduced to 3.63%. Does anyone know a reason for the sales eg illness, or if he is likely to still be a seller? Company looks interesting but that is quite an overhang. Today's 100k sale looks odd among several small deals. Any ideas?

[qs9] 03/9/2008 19:53

AM just going to sit on it/yield until someone takes it out...may take a while....

[bletherer] 03/9/2008 15:32

Duh, so much for the great analysis. Fortunately I don't generally buy breakouts - that was one nasty bull-trap. I still think this looks pretty promising, but it seems the sceptics haven't been totally persuaded yet.

[qs9] 01/9/2008 19:40

OR as I think IMO it will get taken out if the share price does not improve, little or no debt, increasing profits, decent forecasts, delivery, management performing.......interesting...

[bletherer] 28/8/2008 10:58

Yup - looks like it's been worth the patient wait. This looks even better if you look at the long term chart as it's broken above the old declining tops pattern going back several years. Still plenty of resistance levels at about 20 point intervals but pointing in the right direction now at least. I'd expect it to make at least 160 before the next significant pause.

[lanzarote666] 27/8/2008 15:42

Breakout! At last!
Here's hoping for a move up to 160p now she is out of that trading range (which I agree does count for a market out-perform)

[qs9] 08/8/2008 07:31

moving up nicely on the open for a change

[bletherer] 04/8/2008 12:19

It's having a go today. A close over 140 would certainly be pretty exciting after this long period of doing nothing (which in itself already counts as "market outperform").

[lanzarote666] 31/7/2008 17:52

There will also be a shout of 'breakout' if/when the price hits 140p.

[qs9] 31/7/2008 17:29

Hopefully, probably IMO needs this next RNS results to show that the new management are delivering, once market takes that and net cash/decent sector / growth on board hopefully it will start to motor!

[peladon] 31/7/2008 17:05

Bought in today because of both the chart and the basics. I wonder if this is the start of a significant move up?

[qs9] 30/7/2008 14:22

At last it moves....

[mick33] 20/6/2008 15:27

hmmm , nice work if you can get it ,,,directors awarding themselves thousands and thousands of pounds worth of options...------greedy bar - stewards....