Trans-siberian Gold Share Discussion Threads

[book5] 08/4/2020 23:02

Is it roughly valued at 4 years worth of dividends?
Problem is that there are only 3 years remaining life of the mine.
We are:
-extending mine life by drilling for new reserves
-prefeasability study for another new greenfield gold+silver mine within this quarter
Stg may buy another mine, but would require rising cash
Tsg has a story of handsome dividends
Resources is the risky part, company seems trustworthy

[redtrend] 08/4/2020 13:42

I don't expect huge amount of profit taking at this level unless there is another huge market wide collapse and liquidations/ margin calls, but I could be wrong.

It's cheap as chips already if they follow through on guidance as per RNS of 29-Jan:

Production: 38,000 - 42,000
AISC: $900 - $1,000
Non-sustaining/ Growth Capex: $10.4m (outside AISC)

The March RNS confirmed there was no production impact to COVID-19 (Kamchatka, very remote region in Russia - don't want to jinx it but out of all global mines, if workers work on site in camp, must be one of safest mine sites from COVID-19 - as long as any cargo deliveries/ crew rotations are strictly controlled). In fact with depreciation in rouble and collapse in oil prices, they should easily be at AISC of $900 or below.

Their EBITDA could therefore be: 40,000 Oz (middle of guidance) x ($1,600 - $900) = $28m. If Gold is higher at $1,700 avg. over yr and production 42,000 p.a., $33.6m

All for a market cap of only £52m and I assume they are now Net Cash + Dividend of perhaps 7% yield at this share price

They had Net Debt of $9.6m end June 2019 (Cash $17.7m, Debt $27.3m). I would have expected this to improve over 2H 2019. We know from unaudited Q3 & Q4 2019 Reports they had:

Revenue: $32.3m (1H 2019: $30m)
Production: 21,590 Oz (1H 2019: 21,889 Oz)
Gold Price: $1,485 (1H 2019: $1,312)


April + Q2 could be very busy:
a) Q1 2020 production in April
b) Scoping Study for the Rodnikova Gold Deposit.
c) FY 2019 Results, hopefully confirming Net Cash position or close to

I really think they should add the unaudited Net Cash/ Debt position into each of the Q reports - improve transparency + share price. Otherwise there is a considerable delay from Interim & Financial Accounts.

[jeanesy] 07/4/2020 19:58

there has been a nice move up from 42p already. I expect some taking profit. I am sitting on sidelines until we get an update. The last one was not great so could get cheaper still

[avsome1968] 07/4/2020 19:46

Looks like 2 sells 200k end of day stopped this moving today.

[klosters65] 07/4/2020 18:20

This is the only gold share that I follow but has not gone up today. I think we are just unlucky and have to assume that a large shareholder needed funds urgently.

[avsome1968] 07/4/2020 13:48

This will start to tick up in the coming weeks first quarter update just round the corner, think last year 29th April.

[kickingking] 07/4/2020 13:06

I think market makers are trying it on. Too many small 10000 sell from pi. It's up 2.5% on the frankfurt boerse. I can't find any bad news and update should be later this month.

[corrientes] 07/4/2020 12:08

or does somebody somewhere know something we plebs aren't privy to ?

[corrientes] 07/4/2020 11:33

That echoes my feelings and it seems to be more of a specific rather than a Russia type problem where there is a lot more stability (naysayers apart)than in many of these other gold producing areas. That to me is a bit worrying, but as said let's hope its a staircase situation where its a steep climb upwards, rather than falling down from the top landing !

[kickingking] 07/4/2020 09:48

Can not see why TSG is not partaking in the gold rally today. Have not seen any bad news. I'll expect once it starts, we can easily see 20% rise in one go.

[cyberbub] 06/4/2020 23:11

Just looking in here. The last Aisc I can find was $950, so a clear profit of $700 at today's price X 40k Oz = $28M. Ok taxes bla bla say $23M or £18M. Current market cap with 110M shares (incl treasury shares) is £66M. So on a p/e of under 4. Debt is a 'relatively' reasonable $20M so nothing to worry about. A good divi payer for the majority owners.On the downside, Russia so politically risky. A majority owner is also risky. The reserves at Asacha are dwindling significantly, so they need to get a move on with developing the other site, which will be expensive but it seems to have high grades.Does that about sum it up from my half an hour's research?

[avsome1968] 30/3/2020 23:07

Mining
Gold & silver

Alastair Ford
11:39 Thu 26 Mar 2020
Follow Alastair on:

Investor deep dive

Equities offer far greater leverage in a rising gold market, and share prices are already on the move
Gold has been the traditional safe haven throughout the ages




The gold price has hit record highs in several currencies in recent days, including the British pound, Canadian dollar, South African rand, and Australian dollar. It’s also recovered much of the ground lost in US dollar terms when investors sold heavily to cover losses elsewhere in the market. That selling is now abating, and the buyers are coming in for gold again, seeking the traditional safe haven.
That means that the companies that find and produce the gold are set to benefit too, a process which is already getting underway.
For those that are able to continue production and development work – and at this stage there are many – a high gold price combined with ongoing low fuel prices means that the opportunities for wider margins are considerable.
Among those companies who’ve already made this explicit is Ariana Resources PLC (LON:AAU), which said on 19 March that while precautionary measures have been taken against the spread of coronavirus at its operations, no disruption to production from its Kiziltepe mine is expected. Trans-Siberian Gold (LON:TSG) was also earl off the mark, issuing a release on 20 March that spurred a 25% increase in the company’s share price, as it pointed out the significant drop in input costs.
Other companies that have followed include Resolute Mining Ltd (LON:RSG)(ASX:RSG) , which on 26 March stated that it’s continuing with production at its African projects; Anglo Asian Mining PLC (LON:AAZ), which stated that production at its mines in Azerbaijan is continuing; Caledonia Mining Corporation PLC (NYSEAMERICAN:CMCL)(LON:CMCL)(TSE:CAL), which said that production at the Blanket mine in Zimbabwe remains on track.
Among the explorers and developers, many companies remain in operation, most notably Greatland Gold (LON:GGP), which has seen significant interest in its shares in recent days, as investors buy into the potential for a major re-rating if Newcrest takes an early development decision there. Gold above US$1,600 and set to head higher certainly can’t hurt that decision-making process.
Other companies likely to benefit from a prolonged period of gold price strength include Baker Steel Resources Investment Trust (LON:BSRT), which has significant gold investments in Russia, Africa and Asia, and Chaarat Gold Holdings Ltd (LON:CGH), which has production in Armenia and development projects in Central Asia.
But why is it worth looking at these companies, rather than just taking a speculative position in a gold ETF?
The answer is that the leverage to the upside is greater, albeit that the risk is too. With a gold ETF you don’t get the benefits to margin of lower oil prices and higher gold prices – all you get are the daily moves in the price itself. Thus, a rise in the gold price such as we’ve seen in the past couple of weeks, as gold moved from below US$1,500 to above US$1,600 amounts to a rise of slightly less than 7%.
On the other hand though, the Trans-Siberian gold share price rose more than 25% on its margin-based announcement, and the price could go still higher as investors start to come back to gold equities.
Greatland Gold’s share price has also jumped by more than 20% over the past few days, albeit that they are down on where they were in February before the coronavirus infected markets.
Meanwhile, at the larger end of the market, shares in precious metals producer Polymetal (LON:POLY), currently worth well over £5bn, have jumped by 33% since a six-month low of 1,039p was hit on 19 March. That’s a stunning jump for a company so large, but it’s by no means unique.
The US$48bn Barrick Gold (NYSE:GOLD)(TSE:ABX) has enjoyed a 25% jump in its share price since six month lows hit a week ago. That kind of action just doesn’t happen on the gold market itself, however wild the commodities markets are at the moment.
And it means that those on the lookout for big gains will always still look to the gold equity markets

[book5] 30/3/2020 11:38

No related to tsg
PharmaMar new antivirus drug could eventually lift the whole market, news this week or next, drug is been tested in patients in Madrid hospital (12 de Octubre name of hospital).
It is an antitumoral drug now been tested for other used: Aplidin. It is expected that Very low concentration required so very mild side effects if any
Low risk bet bcs 1st of April a 3% of shares buyback programe is starting with 4.5 euros per share

[philby1] 30/3/2020 07:51

jeansey - It was on Friday afternoon, 27 March 2020.

[jeanesy] 29/3/2020 17:52

I understand philby1 . When was this article realeased to those who subscribe please ?

[zangdook] 29/3/2020 03:49

don't click the link in 1103. magicnumber is a spambot.

[mny1] 28/3/2020 15:06

Russia seems to be putting lockdown in place is Moscow, I feel like we are safe in the rural East. Anyone know if we have any large settlements nearby? Opinions?

[philby1] 28/3/2020 11:31

Sorry jeansey, it's subscription only. It is the tip of the month for March and is looking for a 50% quick gain on the anticipation of a fast rising gold price.

[jeanesy] 28/3/2020 11:05

Thanks philby1 - do you have a link please ?

[philby1] 28/3/2020 08:05

jeanesy - Hot Stock Rockets - Shareprophets.

[jeanesy] 27/3/2020 19:11

tipped where ?

[fillipe] 27/3/2020 14:28

TSG - tipped today.....tp, 90p.

f

[avsome1968] 26/3/2020 16:47

Gold motoring again this will be up tomorrow.