Trans-siberian Gold Share Discussion Threads

[callmebwana] 15/2/2020 15:09

Well worth a watch if you are invested in Gold miner. Only about 10 Minutes long.
ATB and enjoy the weekend.

[jeanesy] 10/2/2020 20:35

very muted reaction to what i thought was good news !

[brasso3] 10/2/2020 11:44

I thought this was good news and seems odd that the market has not reacted.

[zangdook] 10/2/2020 10:53

If, as I think was suggested, the downgrade in the Asacha resource had something to do with using JORC rather than GKZ standards, then this news should be reassuring.

[casual47] 10/2/2020 10:10

The Rodnikova update confirms what was already known last year, except in JORC terms rather than GKZ. So, arguably, this would already have been priced in.

In practical terms this asset is not even at development stage so in the medium term its valuation and contribution to an increase of the shareprice will depend on further firming up the asset through more drilling and the usual stages, such as scoping etc. I expect any further value increase to be incremental as they prove it up as I don't think there will be surprises here in terms of exploration.

[1tarquin] 10/2/2020 07:32

Agreed

"It is pleasing to confirm a 1million ounce gold Mineral Resource Estimate at Rodnikova. The JORC Mineral Resource Estimate validates previous reported estimates under the GKZ classification and also the value-created following its cost-effective acquisition last year".

[nickwild] 10/2/2020 07:19

new RNS looks favourable.

[novicetrade68] 04/2/2020 23:33

The ore from the Rodnikova deposit is 50km or so away and they plan to use existing facilities for processing it by trucking it back. I think they will just go for the easier parts of the Indicated and Measured parts there, that should keep their production stable for years to come and should also favour odds for dividend for years to come.

[sh0wmethemoney] 03/2/2020 13:55

Let's hope so and this now pushes on

[mick1909] 03/2/2020 13:22

Else where

[mick1909] 03/2/2020 13:22

The seller must be gone I wonder if it was a pi with a decent holding needed the funds as where?

[bignads] 02/2/2020 21:59

Gold is going to fly this week as uncertainty over the impact of the coronavirus on the economy continues to grow. Suggests TSG is due a rerate again as people buy back in after the over-reaction to recent news.

[1tarquin] 31/1/2020 13:08

GKZ Russian classified resource of 1Moz gold at 5.3 g/t and 8.3Moz silver at 44.6g/t.

The Group expects to publish a JORC-compliant Mineral Resource Estimate for the Rodnikova deposit in the first quarter of 2020 and thereafter expects to prepare an internal scoping study to assess the development options for the deposit.

We also know they have already discovered a new vein extension at Asacha

[mick1909] 31/1/2020 12:49

Has rodnikova got 1m oz of unproven reserves if so that would prove valuable

[casual47] 31/1/2020 11:47

Apart from #1, these points have been the stone in the shoe for me for a while now, all the way up past 130p. Compared to e.g. HGM there is very little transparency here.

UFG have total control so they can do what they want and clearly they are aligned to PIs by the sheer size of their holding but in terms of governance I think the way TSG operates makes it more likely for 'accidents' like the collapse to happen.

[casual47] 31/1/2020 10:53

Some thoughts on what would, for me, strengthen the case to invest here:

Given the extent of the loss of resource there should be an updated BFS to restore confidence.

I'd like to see them adopt JORC reserves rather than the Russian state defined ones

The annual report needs to have a lot more detail. It's impossible to properly scrutinize the numbers as only the topline is given.

Ideally they would further reduce the control of UFG and related parties.

Basically: more transparency

[casual47] 31/1/2020 09:51

Bad news tends to stick around longer.

Just look at what happened to HUM and CEY. Arguably the situation here is worse.

[paleje] 31/1/2020 09:39

They've got more spending to do though, we don't know how much or how effective it will be, bit of faith required. Even so fair point, PE around 4-5 seems too low with a divi locked in, new mine JORC due within weeks and work underway to improve Asacha.

[1tarquin] 31/1/2020 07:57

Market Cap now just over £40m for a company that made PBT of $17m last year, we know they did $8.5m PBT in H1 2019 and just announced record revenues for FY19. 2020 guidance broadly in line with 2019 but the strong gold price could easily mean another record year for revenues.

[kickingking] 30/1/2020 17:51

Gold up day and TSG down. Another share that is going to the bottom of the drawer. Will have to wait until next update. From 130-80-60-48p is massive drop. Let see where we are in April. You would have thought that this company was making a loss the way the share is falling. At 130 it got ahead of itself, but 48 it's ridiculous. GLH

[kop202] 29/1/2020 16:49

But what about the drilling?If there is a good outcome some hope for the sp?

[macmuck] 29/1/2020 16:00

It does not matter if the dividend is 4% if the share price drops 20% or whatever. I'm neutral here but casual makes some good rational points here..IMNO (novice)

[casual47] 29/1/2020 10:26

It will probably take at least a year before they will be able to publish a revised resource statement which will replace the lost ounces.

Q1 2020 will probably be similarly poor as q4 2019 as I imagine they will need to keep blending in ore from stockpiles and are unlikely to already have solved the grade issues from production.

The strong gold price is a godsend.

There is some risk that management hasn't got to grips fully in terms of unexpected low grades. If so then there could be a profit warning, though the 2020 guidance has given them some room with the lower end being at 38k oz. They could possibly feed through more stockpile to still meet the guidance on oz even if it means overshooting the AISC target.

[creme de menthe] 29/1/2020 10:18

I think it is a bit too soon to buy in or average down in my case. When the yield gets to around 5.5% might be the time.
This would provide a bit of a cushion at least.
Of course gold rising would help but I do not see gold storming ahead until we see widespread talk of global recession and that is not happening at the moment.