Trans-siberian Gold Share Discussion Threads

[casual47] 09/1/2020 11:25

Gold and gold miners are not equivalents.

Paper shares can be much higher risk than "fiat currency" as gold miners are subject to far more acute risks than sovereign countries are. A nominee shareholding is a degree worse of course, compared to certificates, as even the company that holds your shares can go bust.

[costax1654x] 09/1/2020 11:16

Anyone noticed ORM ?Gold asset in Salamanca and 5 mil £ Cash,no debts, for 3 mil mcap!

[callmebwana] 09/1/2020 10:44

Fuji, Good morning to you too.
I could not agree more with your above post. Gold has been used as a safe haven/currency for centuries,that is why all the central Banks are net buyers of Gold right now.
Follow the Central Banks and you won't go far wrong IMO.
A week $ will light the fire under the Gold price, the FED can't keep printing money for ever !! Keep an eye on the inter Bank REPO rate. It has been going up slowly !!
Market correction will happen for sure,the only question is when ??
Buy physical Gold or have shares in a Gold miner is my motto at the moment.
They best way to protect your wealth IMHO of course.
ATB.

[fuji99] 09/1/2020 10:30

Good morning callmebwana - Agree with you regarding the FED. In addition if one looks at the 10 year DOW chart, it is due for a correction at some point. This is also when Gold/Silver become a safe haven. Regarding TSG, I think their error will serve as a lesson for the future. I am sure that from now on they will triple check everything before releasing any reserves figure or making a statement. Overall, the business is sound, the company makes a profit, has a dividend policy and is located in a very safe geographical zone, far away from any geopolitical turmoil. So, to me this is a medium to long term hold.

[mick1909] 09/1/2020 09:46

Is the end of year financials due this month too? So could expect a special dividend if all is good

[callmebwana] 09/1/2020 09:03

Good morning all.
I think this share is under valued now so I have bought a few more this AM.
The JORC figures will come in and increase the LOM. I am in no rush to be rewarded.
Gold price has fallen back to $1546.70, it will go up when we get the weak $.
The FED can't just keep printing money !!
There is far too much fiat currency sloshing about and something has to give sooner or later. Gold is a safe haven so anyone invested in a Gold miner is doing the right thing IMHO.
ATB.

[kickingking] 08/1/2020 15:10

I think both reports could have be reported the same day. The company knew the markets would mark the price down. Report negative first. The next news will be more positive and up goes the price. This is only my opinion. I can not see price going lower then 50p. Buy at 60p and maybe make 20% profit or loss.

[casual47] 08/1/2020 14:16

Based on the data provided the current LOM appears to be four years, until 2024.

[bignads] 08/1/2020 14:03

Its a bit of a hit to the stomach today, but I think there's been a bit of an over-reaction for the following reasons:

Strategy: I would expect that management will want to get bad news out in one go to create a floor for recovery. With the Rosniviko report and production update due this month (both of which they will know the content of by now), I would expect these to have positives.

Production: we have already had indications that production will be at the top end of the 40-44koz of gold in guidance. This should show an increase on last year's production figures.

Price of Gold: The last time that the share price was at these levels, POG was at $1400. Given that the price of gold has now been above that level now for much of the last six months and we now have a technical floor for the POG in the short to medium term of $1550, we should see TSG benefiting from this. (in their last interim report, they were getting just over $1300/oz on average). This should add between 5 and 10% to cash flow.

Shares in circulation: Looking ahead, we now have 10% fewer shares in circulation too (at a buy-out price of 33p, that looks like clever business by the firm), which should be a multiplier in terms of dividend per share figures. Given that dividends last year amounted to over 8 cents, we should see the dividend yield being over 10% this year. In today's yield-starved world, that's pretty good going, particularly given that there's still 4 years production available solely from proven reserves at the Asacha mine.

[casual47] 08/1/2020 12:32

Rodnikova is an exploration and development asset so won't contribute to overall LOM for some time yet?

[mick1909] 08/1/2020 12:29

Hopefully this a base level share price to build on for the rosniviko report due this month

[mick1909] 08/1/2020 12:27

True but on a caution not sure of the capex and feasibility to mine but will need all this presented to then show In the share price

[breaktwister] 08/1/2020 12:25

But Rodnivoka data is incoming. I think its a mistake to focus only on Asacha for valuation.

[casual47] 08/1/2020 12:21

Presumably it will take at least another year until there will be clarity on extending LOM.

Not only have the depleted resources due to 2019's mining activities not been replenished by last year's drilling but more than 100k oz resources (20% of the end of 2018 resource statement) have been taken off the table in addition. So there is some catching up to do.

[breaktwister] 08/1/2020 12:10

Bullish data. Perfect buying opportunity today.

[breaktwister] 08/1/2020 12:09

25% dump seems way overcooked to me. Already fully invested here but would love to top up.

[mick1909] 08/1/2020 12:05

Operational Highlights-- Gold dore production increased to 21,889 oz, up 26.1% YoY (H1 2018: 17,361 oz.) -- Refined gold production increased to 23,155 oz, up 11.9% YoY (H1 2018: 20,698 oz.) -- Average gold grades 38.7% higher YoY at 8.6g/t (H1 2018: 6.2g/t) -- Average selling price for gold remains flat at $1,312/oz. (H1 2018: $1,324/oz.) -- Reduced Total Cash Cost per oz. gold by 24.6% to $672/oz (H1 2018: $891/oz) -- Reduced AISC per oz. gold by 38.0% to $850/oz (H1 2018: $1,370/oz.) -- Enhanced asset base with acquisition of development and exploration licence for Rodnikova deposit

[bignads] 08/1/2020 11:47

novicetrade68 - I would suggest that the special dividend might be smaller this year but only because the company will want to withhold some cash to pay for the exploration work that is due. One should remember that the company has 7 years of production at Asacha so they have the time and money to make further exploration and discoveries.

[mick1909] 08/1/2020 11:36

Less that 1% of total shares traded today and down 25% Sure the potential resources has reduced but potentially will gain from the rodnikova deposit

[costax1654x] 08/1/2020 10:13

Bought some Kefi and tsg today!Kefi for short term

[novicetrade68] 08/1/2020 10:12

I wouldn't be so sure about the dividend now, 22km of new drilling to make up for production is going to cost a bit of money and TSG is very sensitive to their total AISC when production falls short, you can see in 2017, with lower production their AISC is over $1300.

[bignads] 08/1/2020 09:52

Yep, dividends added up to over 8 cents last year so not far off 6 pence

[paleje] 08/1/2020 09:44

6-8p you sure about that?

[mick1909] 08/1/2020 09:24

Also it is still paying a nice dividend and approx 6-8p so at this share price approx 10% yield so nice returns

[mick1909] 08/1/2020 09:16

Also this could add some significant resource??RodnikovaThe Rodnikova deposit is not reflected in this Mineral Resource Estimate. The Company has engaged a different Competent Person to prepare a Mineral Resource Estimate to be reported in accordance with the JORC Code (2012), which should be complete in January 2020.