Trans-siberian Gold Share Discussion Threads

[rhuvaal2] 19/2/2020 09:46

bignads, quite so

[jeanesy] 19/2/2020 09:14

Nice to see a bit of blue today !

[bignads] 19/2/2020 06:11

But the dividend depends on cash flow. Think we might be able to pay for exploration and special dividends at these gold prices.

[rhuvaal2] 18/2/2020 20:19

One in my basket of seven gold stocks, but I haven't been able to call this correctly since selling some @ 129p. Shall hold what I now consider to be a useful income stock, with entry price @ 36p (lucky or astute I don't know which)

[creme de menthe] 18/2/2020 17:44

Its not so much the share price as the dividend or maybe special dividend?

[bignads] 18/2/2020 16:57

1600/ounce with Aisc of 1000. Every dollar extra on the gold price is pure profit for tsg. Wildly undervalued!

[jeanesy] 18/2/2020 16:22

POG through 1600.. not having any affect here though !

[1tarquin] 18/2/2020 12:13

I am no longer a shareholder here so have no reason to following up with the company anymore.

Felt given I had posted some positive remarks here that I would also have the courtesy to disclose I have sold and moved on.

Good luck all

[creme de menthe] 18/2/2020 10:31

I think you should mail the company secretary and insist on a response.

[wind dancer] 18/2/2020 10:29

But an NED only works 1/2 days a month. doubt he’s exceedingly busy, just not very good at his role.

[rhuvaal2] 18/2/2020 09:40

It's quite normal for a company to save efforts by getting on with the job in hand.
1tarquin = have you been a senior manager yourself ?

[1tarquin] 17/2/2020 20:20

So as PI's you don't think if we have questions of management that we feel aren't addressed in an RNS that we should ask them and keep them accountable?

Each to their own but I tend to find burying your head in the sand and hoping for the best doesn't work out too well.

[brasso3] 17/2/2020 19:01

I would rather the BoD focus on driving the company forward then take calls from all the PIs with a few £ks worth of stock.

[bo doodak] 17/2/2020 18:55

Managements are frequently guilty of forgetting who the owners of the company they work for are. A distasteful trait.

[rhuvaal2] 17/2/2020 16:42

Don't be upset by a failed response ~ sometimes management are exceedingly busy or have other important agenda etc

[1tarquin] 17/2/2020 15:09

Yes, sent several follow ups and not had any response.

[jeanesy] 17/2/2020 14:44

have you tried to contact him again?

[1tarquin] 17/2/2020 13:54

Agreed. He replied to say he had a full schedule of calls and perhaps we can speak on the phone tomorrow?

I replied to accept and asked what number and time to contact him on and then the radio silence ever since.

[zangdook] 17/2/2020 13:47

He asked you to call him but didn't give you a number? That's odd.

[1tarquin] 17/2/2020 13:33

Have sold my starter positions here, reason being I asked management some questions about Q4 production and why when the share price dropped management weren't showing the market this was cheap by investing out of their own pockets.

To be fair I got an almost immediate response from one of the NEDs to have a call the next day which I gratefully accepted and asked for the best number and time to speak. Since then radio silence. That was about 3 weeks ago and despite following up have never had another response.

Shame as I do think the value here is potentially excellent but all this unfortunately makes me think they could be hiding something. Not the sort of company I want to be invested in and feel I can trust so felt better to be safe than sorry and moved on.

Good luck all.

[zangdook] 17/2/2020 06:06

Only a fool would click on anonymised links with no real explanation from an account set up a few days ago which posts nothing else.

[callmebwana] 16/2/2020 14:26

Brasso thanks for the above post.

[brasso3] 16/2/2020 10:53

From Chips thread:-

chipperfrd16 Feb '20 - 10:17 - 7942 of 7943
0 0 0
Mike,

Here is TSG:

Company ...... Trans-Siberia
EPIC ......... TSG
Graham Ratio . 0.54
... MC$m . Debt$m . Cash$m ... Ev$m . FR . FCF$m . Z-Score ...... CR .. Gearing
..... 79 ..... 27 ..... 18 ..... 89 . 6m ..... 3 ..... 2.9 ..... 0.7 ...... 11%

Year .............. .... 2014 .... 2015 .... 2016 .... 2017 .... 2018 .... 2019
Gold Sold(koz) .... ...... 37 ...... 38 ...... 36 ...... 34 ...... 46 ...... 22
AISC .............. ..... 824 ..... 522 ..... 499 ..... 553 ... 1,049 ..... 850
Div Yield ......... .... 0.0% .... 0.0% .... 9.5% .... 7.0% .... 7.0% .... 8.0%
FCF ............... ... 16.6% ... 24.4% ... 21.2% .. -10.2% ... 14.5% ... 11.3%
NPAT Margin ....... ... -0.3% ... 11.9% ... 14.1% .... 5.8% ... 20.8% ... 20.4%
Debt/Equity ....... ... 23.8% .... 9.7% .... 4.6% ... 15.8% .... 8.5% ... 12.4%
Debt/EBITDA ....... .. 124.1% ... 45.3% ... 18.0% .. 101.0% ... 26.3% ... 67.2%
ROE ............... ... -0.2% .... 6.7% .... 8.1% .... 3.2% ... 14.3% .... 7.9%
ROCE .............. .... 1.3% .... 6.8% .... 9.5% .... 3.1% ... 16.1% .... 8.2%
MAGIC formula ..... .... 5.1% ... 33.3% ... 23.5% .... 7.4% ... 47.6% ... 19.6%
EBIT/Ev ........... .... 3.8% ... 26.4% ... 14.0% .... 4.3% ... 31.5% ... 11.3%
P/E ............... . -121.6 ..... 3.3 ..... 9.1 ..... 9.0 .... 18.5 ..... 6.5
Price/Book (PBV) .. ..... 0.2 ..... 0.2 ..... 0.7 ..... 0.7 ..... 0.5 ..... 1.0
Price/Sales (PSR) . ..... 0.3 ..... 0.4 ..... 1.3 ..... 1.3 ..... 0.8 ..... 1.3
Ev/EBITDA ......... ..... 2.3 ..... 1.5 ..... 3.1 ..... 5.7 ..... 1.9 ..... 3.1
Price/Cashflow .... ..... 1.4 ..... 1.2 ..... 3.1 ..... 5.6 ..... 1.8 ..... 3.8

Notes
Graham No. is an estimate of target share price The Ratio is Current SP/Graham No.
Ev is the Enterprise Value. It is MktCap+Debt-Cash
FCF is Free Cash Flow (ie OPCF - Investment outlays)
Z-Score is a measure of solvency risk. A figure below 1.8 is considered risky.
Cash Ratio (CR) is Current Cash/Current Liabilities.
Gearing is Debt to Equity (ie Net Debt/(Net Debt+Equity). -ve num = net cash.
NPAT Margin is bottom line Profit after Tax compared to Revenue.
EBITDA is Earnings Before Interest, Tax, Depreciation & Amortisation.
Magic formula is Earnings Yield + ROCE
EBIT is Earnings before Interest & Tax.
Price/Cashflow is current MktCap/Operational Cash Generated.
ROE is Return on Equity
ROCE is Return on Capital Expended

Average Ratios in sector
FCF = 0.7% Margin = 6.0% Debt/Equity = 6.9% Debt/EBITDA = 110% ROE = 2.2%
ROCE = 2.7% Magic = 5.4% EBIT/Ev = 2.4% P/E = 13.5 PBV = 1.5
PSR = 2.3 Ev/EBITDA = 7.4 PCF = 8.4 AISC = 988

Financials are from last June and only 1H gold sold is shown.
2H should have been better due to gold price - as for most goldies of course!
Debt ok, Costs good, Dividend excellent, FCF% better than most, good margin, ROE and ROCE are fine compared to most, hence Magic formula better than sector, low P/E, PBV, PSR, Ev/EBITDA and PCF are low compared to average - hence it scores 3rd in my under-valued table.

As mentioned above, it has had to restate it's resources downwards - so share price suffered.
Chip