Trans-siberian Gold Share Discussion Threads

[bignads] 28/1/2020 14:26

Thanks Casual - that seems like sensible logic. I think we've probably seen a bit of a market over-reaction to the results though. Did a number of investors buy-in on anticipation of a special dividend and sold out when there was no mention of it. Most probably. By any measure, the share seems over-sold and under-valued at the moment.

[casual47] 28/1/2020 14:11

Big, 43% of the gold resource went up in smoke.

They didn't give info on whether they had to change their mine plan in q4 but presumably they did. The q4 ore was from stoping plus from stockpiles.

In the previous release they said they expect guidance to be in line with previous years, which would be good.

All we know is that they're implementing an accelerated exploration programme and "are confident that we have the time, capital and skills to upgrade the mineral resource at Asacha"

This upgrade needs to first replace the 240k oz that was written off, plus the oz they mined out in 2019 and will be mining out this year, before they can talk of an increase. It seems a big ask to get this done in one year.

[bignads] 28/1/2020 13:44

Casual47 - you're making a big play of the mine collapse. What information do we have on this? I note the reference in the resources update. Is there anything else?

[casual47] 28/1/2020 13:24

This is the problem: there is no clarity.

It seems to me the q4 performance is a direct consequence of the mine collapse rather than the usual geological transition that happens with every miner. If so then that raises plenty of questions: will there be an impact on q1 (and beyond), how does it impact AISC, did the mine collapse force them to mine in areas that are not as profitable and when can they move on to better areas? What will be the cost of the additional drilling they need to do? Presumably this additional drilling will be longer term as they need to make up for at least three years worth of lost resources, so potentially the exploration budget will need to be increased into 2021 as well.

A first glimpse of what is going on will be guidance - it may very well be lower than what it was last year. If it is higher then that would be promising, but at the moment we can't know.

[kickingking] 28/1/2020 13:16

Thanks, I saw his post. There are many reasons why last quarter can be down. One being not to get too far ahead of last year results. Put lower grade materials through once they passed. Company want to increase year after year. What the point being 10% ahead and then reporting lower next year. Small increase each year is better. For short time trading yes let's have 20% but this will not good in the long term.

[phillkay] 28/1/2020 12:49

See casual47 post. Spot on.

[1tarquin] 28/1/2020 12:20

Unless I've missed it, I've not seen a RNS saying UFG have been selling. Surely they would be closest to the company and had the opportunity to offload on the way up to the 120's if they had wanted to.

They clearly see the long term value here.

[kickingking] 28/1/2020 12:12

Can't see why it has fallen so much. Results were not terrible. Record revenue, record gold production. Apart from special dividend, what was market expecting. It's bad for us holders that gold is 1570 and we are close to year low. I will keep my shares and see what happens in April. GLH.

[klosters65] 28/1/2020 12:08

It seems to me that there has been a persistent seller since New Year. The seller seems to be still around even at today's lower trading price circa 52p. Either a substantial holder has financial problems or there is some bad news that us shareholders have not been told about. Any other views ?

[breaktwister] 28/1/2020 12:05

Bargain opportunity for those thinking longterm here

[1tarquin] 28/1/2020 10:44

It's a business being run for the long term, so if they can be at the top end of guidance and take the opportunity to put through lower grade ore than that seems a sensible business decision to me. All whilst having record production and revenue, seems a strange decision to me to sell at this point when the share price has fallen so much already. Each to their own but the key for me at this stage is the business is performing well. That could change with additional news but at this stage no change to my investment thesis.

[casual47] 28/1/2020 09:15

They had a 30% drop in gold dore for q4 compared to 2018 q4, even though they processed more tonnage. That's why they are down.

There is no clarity on how long into the year the impact of the ground collapse will last. Q1 could be affected also.

Sounds a bit similar to what happened to CEY - it took them about two years to recover.

Need to wait to see what guidance will be. The extra drilling that they need to do to recover the resources that they lost (about three or so years worth) will probably rule out any special dividends.

[bignads] 28/1/2020 09:12

Not bad results at all - These miners typically try and hit the upper end of their production targets. If they are ahead of guidance during the year, they often look to reduce their grades and mine marginal parts of their estate during the last quarter so that they can still meet targets but utilise less productive parts of the mine. These are good results. Revenues beat market cap we would expect record EBITDA and post-tax profits this year too. Not sure what the market was expecting, but I think the price drop has been engineered slightly to get cheaper shares. Should rebound as the news sinks in.

[mick1909] 28/1/2020 09:11

I think because of the small amount of free float in shares the share price can swing in high percentage in either direction of relatively small volume

[return_of_the_apeman] 28/1/2020 09:09

Anyone know the aisc and profit after taxes here?

Can't see why these are down, unsure what I have missed except no profits stated - have local taxes/end of tax offset or large capex expenditure kicked in this year

Just curious

[mick1909] 28/1/2020 08:56

It dont state the profits after tax anywhere so yes a special dividend could still come and if like last year anything over 5p equates over 10% yield

[zangdook] 28/1/2020 08:53

They had their tongues hanging out for another special dividend. It may yet appear.

[1tarquin] 28/1/2020 08:45

Only have a starter position here but all time record production and revenues - what were folk expecting to be so disappointed by this RNS?

Revenues were $63.1m vs forecast in Stockopedia of $57.8m, seems like they did what they said they would do in terms of production and then revenues benefited from the recent gold price.

[paleje] 28/1/2020 08:28

Q4 let things down but still 2019 was upper end of forecast. It will be interesting to see formal 2020 guidance soon.

[phillkay] 28/1/2020 08:16

Good YoY growth

[jeanesy] 28/1/2020 08:12

Disappointing results im afraid .

[kickingking] 27/1/2020 18:06

Another late reported sell from last Friday 150k@55.125p.

[breaktwister] 27/1/2020 16:33

Some buying today, maybe news tomorrow?

[klosters65] 27/1/2020 14:22

It appears that the recent large seller is finally out of the way.I hope I am not jumping the gun. In which case with the current rising price of gold, the S P should be on the way back up.