Trakm8 Share Discussion Threads

[axdelta] 04/11/2019 20:11

I know from experience that what matters when supplying the AA is not the contract but the Purchase Order.

[trakm8fan] 04/11/2019 20:07

No Dave. This business can be much bigger just with insurance even if rh600 becomes a dead duck. Quick Google search shows contract win with LexisNexis risk solutions. I think they're owned by a large multinational with 30000 employees. Sounds big to me.

[dave2608] 04/11/2019 19:59

I know they have an ace up their sleeve if the going gets tough. It's called the RH600 camera.

[trakm8fan] 04/11/2019 19:55

No Dave. There was another big deal. Even without the AA this deal can transform the business.

[trakm8fan] 04/11/2019 19:54

Let's not forget that Microlise put up a lot of money to buy a share of this business and keep it afloat when everyone else thought it was junk. Would they have done that if the outlook was not good. Or maybe they are just fools with money to burn.

[dave2608] 04/11/2019 19:53

Yes of course there is that significant tie up with the AA where they both end up riding into the sunset together. Silly me for forgetting that one.

[trakm8fan] 04/11/2019 19:45

The deals done or rather the contracts secured have been public knowledge for sometime. Words used were like significant insurance customer or something along those lines. I'm sure they named one or two of them but I cant remember now. I just know they are big and that's all I need to know.

[knowbodyyouno] 04/11/2019 19:34

Yes. Hopefully the half-year results will tell us more. Until then it's just speculation. Given what happened last year anything is possible and you could be right. Who knows?! I guess we'll just have to wait and see.

GLA

[dave2608] 04/11/2019 19:34

Do you engage in satire often trakm8Fan?

[trakm8fan] 04/11/2019 19:32

It does look grim yes. But if these contracts are just delayed and close to shipping soon then does it still look so grim? It's not entirely impossible that they will start shopping soon and then volumes will start increasing and therefore revenue too. That's the gamble here. It seems simple enough to understand.

[dave2608] 04/11/2019 19:27

Lol, trakm8Fan is surely on a wind??? Things looks grim here. To reiterate Davros's point, with half year results only a few weeks away, they might indicate whether death spiral territory has been entered.

[trakm8fan] 04/11/2019 19:27

I honestly believe the delay is just a delay nothing more. And currently the price here reflects that everyone thinks the delays are not delays but that this business is going down the potty and therefore its just junk. And therefore I see this a great opportunity to make money when the market wakes up to the fact it isn't junk and the delays were just that.

I think the price could do much better than 60p. I see 100p plus.

[knowbodyyouno] 04/11/2019 19:24

The answer to your question is simple: most here have a lot invested and some, like me, believe recovery is possible. Not to the dizzy heights of yesteryear, but I personally am only looking for 50p or so. It's very tightly held, as we know - to the point where it's almost a private company - so 50p is not too big a mountain to climb in my opinion, if it continues to show signs of recovery. Of course, I may never get my money back, but it is worth the risk to me and that's what matters.

[davr0s] 04/11/2019 18:17

Sorry guys - you need to recognise when a stock/ company has had its day. Know that's an unpopular view but the majority won't ever recover but many will spend a lot of energy trying to get the price back up. But there are 2000 UK listed shares out there so why keep clogging this one

[trakm8fan] 04/11/2019 18:05

Let's talk money. Does anyone know how much revenue they generate now from their insurance customers. If we were to see that increase by a factor of 3, 4 or 5 times then where would that put their revenue. Can anyone then predict how the profit would look.

[knowbodyyouno] 04/11/2019 14:57

Just because the terminology isn't used in a article that probably provides a snapshot of everything that was discussed during the interview doesn't mean they've canned SB. In their latest RNS (which is what I pay attention to)they said:

Significant progress with the development and roll-out of new products and services; Smart Breakdown launch in Q4.

In a more recent RNS they said:

We are making significant progress on our strategic plan (of which we know SB is an integral part).


However, if you're right and the AA has cancelled the SB contract (which I don't buy personally), then I would think Trak will have to update the market asap, as such a development would surely be considered 'material'.

Personally, I think things are ticking along, if a little slower than one would hope (Trakm8fan, gave some credible reasons as to why). No long until the next update and we'll have a little more certainty around the current trajectory of the business.

[trakm8fan] 04/11/2019 14:55

I think that's just aimed at fleets. The smart breakdown is a more consumer product - I think. Fleets are already getting sold to about these devices already. That's not to say the AA cant also sell them. Surely with fleet vehicles they are a lot newer and therefore shouldn't really break down. Even if they do then the manufacture warranty should cover that part.

I can see a benefit for the AA to use a smart device in their customer's cars which are 5 to 10 years old. But I'm not sure the customer sees enough value in paying too much for it. I'm sure the money the AA can save by predicting which cars will have a flat battery is quantifiable but probably doesn't cover the cost of putting a device in every one of their consumer customer's cars.

[40toolong] 04/11/2019 14:19

I think the CFO is probably like lots of us and thought he was buying into a good game.

I saw the below link. Looks like they have canned Smart Breakdown. Not surprised really. Not a single mention...

hxxps://www.businesscar.co.uk/analysis/2019/beyond-breakdown

[trakm8fan] 02/11/2019 07:02

How what?

Why are people forgetting the good news here just because there have been some delays.

The CFO put 30k into the shares when he first started at a price over £1 and then he put 125k into shares when the price crashed down to 20p. Ok he now gets paid 150k per year but let's gloss over that.

They found money - a lot of money - when they needed it from microlise who paid more than the share price at the time. Why would microlise do that unless they see growth here.

They sold the building down south because they didn't need it. They had moved to Birmingham. Nothing else needed to say about this.

They took a bigger building in Birmingham in anticipation of the increased volumes expected which would require a bigger facility to manufacture. Makes sense if the volume is coming or looks like madness if it is not.

They are currently increasing debt because they are not bringing in enough money but either this is because they are all incompetent or because they know the money is coming.

They could start laying people off if the money was not going to come. They are not doing this. Again either because they are incompetent or because they know it's coming.

All I see here is a company which landed some very large contracts which could have broken their business due to their size and - obviously with deals like this - complexity. And maybe it nearly did break their business. There have been some delays getting these over the line and into production but once these delays are over they will start generating money at much higher levels than the business did previously by a factor of 3, 4 or 5.

Yes the delays have been longer than anyone anticipated. I'd imagine JW would be the first to admit that. But you cant play around with big contracts and yes you are putting all your eggs from one big basket into one or two other big or bigger baskets but that is what has happened here.

Will the AA be big - we don't know yet. But clearly the AA is a big company to do business with and they chose trakm8. It is only one of the big contracts.

You either believe these contracts have happened, are much larger than they could have coped with previously and are delayed while kinks are worked out or they are just bogus.

Make your choice.

[emptycup] 01/11/2019 21:07

How? Come on Blondy/TrakFan (maybe the same person) this co needs to focus and organise itself better. Easy to pick holes or say Jam Tomorrow - harder to think of a solution.

[trakm8fan] 01/11/2019 20:52

I've also been here since 260 ish. Maybe I'm a fool and maybe I'll be proven wrong or maybe I'll be a winner. If you think its all over then close your position and move on. I don't think it's the end. I think it will come good.