Trakm8 Share Discussion Threads

[blondeamon] 03/12/2017 09:46

Very fair point, top slicing is always a prudent strategy. I aim to take 25% off every time the share doubles but it depends how convinced I am it will keep going.

For TRAK I would have to think twice before selling anything below £4 and would be much happier with £6. Never had success with trading, long term buy and hold is my style but each to their own, especially if you don't hold a full time job and you trade for a living like I suspect nod is doing (just guessing). All perfectly good based on subjective views and lifestyle, no right or wrong ways.

[nod] 03/12/2017 09:20

Simple question, but an irrelevant one as I don't hold and don't need to spend time guessing price movements every week.

You said you bought in 2011 and have held. So you've missed selling at 350p, 300p, 250p, and 200p

A feature of shares with limited liquidity is that they can be highly volatile on small volumes, both up and down.

I have nothing against investors holding but its wasted knowledge and lost opportunities if you don't trade as well. I've held GAW since 2009 but also traded along the way.

If I were to guess TRAK's share price for next week, I would guess it will not reach 200p.

You have obviously spent a lot of time analysing and promoting the company but haven't taken any payment for your time or knowledge.

[michaelmouse] 03/12/2017 08:14

Quite the opposite nod. It's one to hold long term, as are all companies with limited liquidity in their shares. Long termers can just ride out the volatility if they've done their research and have the courage of their convictions. Buy the shares outright at a sensible price and sit back hold and relax. Most posters sadly appear to be gamblers using spreadbets, CFDs etc. that's why 80%+ lose money as they guess short term movements.

Here's the acid test for you nod. What direction will the shares take next week? Will they end the week up or down or stay where they are? Simple question.

[nod] 03/12/2017 03:18

This looks like a good trading share. It's not one to hold long-term without regretting missed opportunities.

[wilmdav] 02/12/2017 20:19

Thanks, blondeamon. All good points. And thanks especially for the immense amount of research you have done on this company.

[she-ra] 02/12/2017 19:29

Its had its big fall. Its now cheap. Especially when you consider recent M&A premiums have been 4 times revenues.

[blondeamon] 02/12/2017 19:24

Someone please ban she-ra from this thread, for the love of god.

Wilmdav, reason why QTX doesn't do that is because they don't have any R&D. That's why their product is inferior in the market and imo will soon start to go downhill.

TRAK on the other hand spends huge amounts in R&D and so they have big amounts of tax credit to use. Why is this not as good as cash? If they didn't spend on R&D their costs would be roughly down by the equivalent amount so the net effect would be the same.

It's a high growth tech company, people should judge it as such. Every single metric the company is judged against improved massively on the half year. It could be that in 6 months time they have no debt at all, the market would love that and this would be a lot higher.

And the year end result promises to be a lot better as well. Its valuation right now is absurd and sooner or later will correct itself but first it will have some big falls and some big rises.

[she-ra] 02/12/2017 19:11

A "wary holder" is an oxymoron. You're not a holder.

[wilmdav] 02/12/2017 18:20

I have done quite a thorough review of TRAK's accounts covering the last 5 years. The results can be seen in bar chart form here:



As most subscribers here know by now, TRAK capitalises a questionable amount of their development costs. In contrast, QTX charges all against profit. In order to illustrate the effect on profit and eps I have reconstructed the bar charts after deducting capitalised amounts from TRAK's reported figures. The effect becomes progressively more significant with each successive year. The adjusted charts can be seen here:



If you have access to two computers, it helps to view the equivalent charts together.

There are a few inconsistencies in the presentation of accounts over 5 years which was irritating and time consuming to deal with. Nor was I impressed with the following headline statement in the recent H1-18 interim results:

"Cash generated from operating activities" £3.574m (£0.128m previous) Improvement £2,962%

The actual figure against this line of text in the cash flow statement is £1.917m (£0.015m).

The figure quoted in the headline actually refers to:

"Net cash inflow from operating activities",

which incorporates the benefit of a £1.643m tax refund.

This refund is correctly referred in the text of the RNS but I felt the error was another example of careless reporting which could mislead the unwary. TW drew attention to a similar but more significant mis-quote a while ago in relation 'net cash', which he called a 'red light'.

I am a somewhat wary holder.

[she-ra] 02/12/2017 12:55

Well if they keep generating cash like they have done they will be in a net funds position before not very long. £1.92 million was pretty impressive and you can see why some are trying to talk it down wanting to stock up on Trakm8 as everything is going right for it.

[michaelmouse] 02/12/2017 10:01

An interesting read. Not sure if it's been posted before? Best bit is about the automotive revolution and Trakm8's positioning within that revolution. Valuation comparisons also make for interesting reading. Only two criticisms. Firstly, Trakm8 only had one fund raise last year (not two) and secondly it illustrates the danger of trying to predict short term share price fluctuations in illiquid companies. Apart from that interesting and informed comment imo.

[she-ra] 01/12/2017 22:10

jamiemp - Research Tree don't tip. What's your game?

[jamiemp] 01/12/2017 17:52

Just been tipped on research tree. Wouldn't be surprised if it makes a Sunday paper tip too. Could be bring in some new money in December.

[she-ra] 01/12/2017 17:20

But like Blondeamon has said in the past Trakm8 could be a takeover target and the outlook statement was very positive. Compared to Quartix this is cheap.

You're right to stick with Volex (I'm in it too)but a takeover or directors purchases could see this shoot well over last weeks highs.

[brucie5] 01/12/2017 17:08

I'm not convinced this is a bad investment, just a share retracing after a sharp rise. I held off buying today, but in two minds. Chartwise it reminds me of SSY, which I do hold. I particularly like stock crossing the 1£ threshhold as there seems to be something very energising about the whole number, and thereafter, if it proves a bagger, it can bag several times over. I will wait and see how far back down this goes.

[michaelmouse] 01/12/2017 14:11

I bought all my shares in Trakm8 in the teens in 2011 and it's always been an illiquid company to deal in hence the extreme movements in the share price. It's not the most illiquid I hold though. If you don't like it then don't deal in illiquid micro-caps.

I've already expressed my views about Trakm8 in my blog. Quite frankly if Trakm8 achieves its full potential then you won't care whether you paid 10p, 100p or 150p for the shares in the long term.



You might like to read post 2963?:-

[she-ra] 01/12/2017 13:09

rogash below is a deramp from today by him.

+++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++
blondeamon
1 Dec '17 - 09:47 - 2173 of 2189 0 0

Management could do a lot better to reassure shareholders but they are not so this will not go positive again until we see a new contract or the next TU in February.

[pj 1] 01/12/2017 12:44

she-ra

Please keep to TRAK. This is usually a constructive BB. Any personal issues can be communicated directly with the person involved. TIA

[rogash] 01/12/2017 12:36

she-ra can you tell me the posts where blondeamon de-ramped?

[she-ra] 01/12/2017 12:16

blondeamon you're not convincing. You aint pumping yet like you did pre-results.