Trakm8 Share Discussion Threads

[jamiemp] 27/11/2017 11:17

Few stale bulls bailing selling on the news I would think. Finncap have published a new note and reiterated their previous targets. Will be intersting to see if the tipsters pick it up now.

[nurdin] 27/11/2017 10:52

Disappointing reaction to H1 results..but guess they were as expected.Looking to add once the price stabilizes

[jamiemp] 27/11/2017 09:52

Yes good products for sure - they seem lightyears ahead of competitors - and I would think Trakm8prime addresses much of what Quartix had identified as their USP's.

[blondeamon] 27/11/2017 08:51

Nice average Jamie, I would hold out until we get at least back to where it was 2 years ago at £4 and potentially a lot higher if new clients are booked. I think this will get bought out within 2-3 years and we'll have a nice payday then.

After being through the hard part past year, now it's the time for shareholders to be rewarded. It will be slow and guided IMO so no big surprises but quarter after quarter the figures should be improving.

Telematics business by nature becoms highly cash generative if you do nothing. Only danger is that competitors will steal all your clients with new tech (look at QTX) but that's nothing TRAK has to worry about, these products are state of the art and will be for the next 3 years at least. No one else even has a fully integrated camera/telematics product, let alone in 4G with 1080p HD and route optimisation.

[kmann] 27/11/2017 08:42

Yes, update as expected, good.

[jamiemp] 27/11/2017 08:40

Good to see the cash generation and revenue growth. Happy to hold but looking at historic H1/H2 weightings, it seems vanishingly unlikely they'll smash the profit forecast this year.


She-ra, you're right - too early in the morning for me - its 72490 shares. Valued at £102,935 this morning. Average purchase price 83p. 71%/£42,768 profit.


Need my NI number?


Seriously I should thank perma-bull blondeamon as his commentary was what really drew me in for more research.

[blondeamon] 27/11/2017 08:38

He just whines a bit but he's invested for sure, no one that complains that much does it for fun :)

I get his pain too, this share was a momentum trap for the last year but now I think it's back to its old self. Everything goes really good on all fronts, especially the recent marketing efforts I see for Trakm8prime, this is truely a cheap and excellent solution for SMEs benefitting from technology usually reserved for behemoth fleets.

[she-ra] 27/11/2017 08:27

jamiemp - Sure you do.

[jamiemp] 27/11/2017 08:25

She-ra, I hold about 50k shares so not really interested in de-ramping.

[she-ra] 27/11/2017 08:25

blockchain - Think you've got the wrong board.

[blondeamon] 27/11/2017 08:20

I also think the demand comment is also more retail/economy related than company related. Cash generated have exploded and that was the market's biggest concern.

This is the typical RNS from a company that is coming out of the woods from a bad time and prepares to do a massive turnaround. A humble start to ease the market's concerns, throw in a few comments about uncertainty and all scenarios are covered.

Most Fleet devices comes with 1 month free so H1 recurring revenues being +17% is extremely encouraging for H2 as all these 4000 new devices will count fully, along with all the Calor Gas ones that were not installed yet.

The Car Genie and ANWB Connected devices are sold to retail clients full time now so revenues come in without much on our side, TV ads and marketing paid by AA and ANWB.

Very happy with the progress and think it will surprise in April.

[michaelmouse] 27/11/2017 08:09

"we have visibility to support our second half expectations"

Visibility is underpinned by recurring revenues now and they are less dependent on winning new customers. This is great for shareholders. The statement about end-user demand relates to the recent offerings e.g. Car Genie where customers have to opt-in.

My guess is that existing projections are pretty much covered but they could surprise to the upside if customer demand outstrips these projections.

[she-ra] 27/11/2017 08:07

jamiemp - That's the most desperate deramp I have ever seen.

[jamiemp] 27/11/2017 07:59

Look good. Pre-tax profit somewhat lower than I would have thought. There are some mentions of reducing fees and uncertainty of end-user demand.

[michaelmouse] 27/11/2017 07:39

Excellent set of results, recurring revenues now showing their worth with high visibility looking forward. Profits and cash generation ramping up and will continue to do so in future years because of their business model.

Even stronger second half to come.

[nw99] 27/11/2017 07:22

Really on track now to deliver strong growth and profits

[blondeamon] 27/11/2017 07:21

Strong set of results, progress on all fronts and company normalising back to more sensible levels of investment and profitability.


Cash generated 3.5m from. 0.12 last year, the company's biggest pain in the past. Worst is behind us, onwards to profitability reaching new highs now.

[blondeamon] 25/11/2017 13:12

Remember nurdin that margins will be a lot higher too this year. They got rid of 3m worth of microlise contracts that barely made a profit and replaced with own high margin.

In Netherlands they have already sold 10,000 car genies for 110 euro per year. Austria goes live in 2018 as well.

So a lot higher revenues on higher margins, while costs stabilise and continue to decrease. No dividend, no acquisitions and 1.5m cost savings to take place this year.
I believe this will be their best year ever as the Roadhawk 600s all break even and start to bring juicy margins for years to come.

Then imagine they land another big contract soon in this mix. Market completely ignoring this company, below anyone's radar and any news were negative (TW). First time 2 weeks ago this was Trendwatch's pick of the month which led to the volume spike.

[nurdin] 25/11/2017 12:26

Blondeamon

-they reported net profits of just £1.47m on revenues of £26.8m in 2017.

-for 2018 revenues are forecast at £32.5m (+19%) but net profits will jump 51% to £2.6m

-for 2019 revenues are forecasts at £35.5m (+11%) but net profits are penciled in to jump 38% to £3.6m

That is the power of operational gearing.I suspect debt will at least half from the current levels in 2018 and disappear completely by 2019.

-

[allstar4eva] 25/11/2017 12:02

I think debt of 2.3 mil is nothing and if the trajectory continues they will be debt free before long. If the market believes the story then the shares may re-rate further. It would be good to get confirmation that the heavy investment phase is over for now. Hoping for a nice rise on Monday however guessing short term movements is far from easy with illiquid small caps. Key thing is no nasty surprises as the fundamentals look good.

Further I don't think that this lot is fully priced in yet...

"...The Board's outlook for the year is unchanged. The Group is well positioned for growth in its chosen markets and the Board is confident about Trakm8's future prospects; a further update on trading for the current financial year commencing 1 April 2017 will be provided in conjunction with the 2017/18 half year results.

John Watkins, Executive Chairman of Trakm8, said: "Trakm8 has regained good momentum in growing revenues organically, particularly in our core higher margin telematics solutions sales which provide recurring revenues, following the wide range of contracts secured and the planned significant investments in engineering, sales and marketing across the Group in 2017.

"We are pleased to have significantly reduced the net debt this period, providing a stable platform from which to pursue our strong pipeline of sales opportunities.

"The second half of our financial year has historically achieved higher revenues, profitability and cash generation over the first half and we expect this year to be similar..."

[blondeamon] 25/11/2017 11:22

There's also another positive side to this year compared to 2016 when it comes to reporting.

H1 2017: Revenues up 12% / Profit before Tax -77% / Net Debt £4.40m
H1 2018: Revenues up 12% / Profit before Tax ?? / Net Debt £2.31m

Comparables will be very good on Monday as last year's numbers were not so good but not a disaster either.

Now check out what happens when they report Full Year:

Assuming the momentum continues and their current guidance for 32m revenues holds this is what it is going to look like.

FY 2017: Revenues up 4% / Profit before Tax -77% / Net Debt £3.90m
FY 2018: Revenues up 19% / Profit before Tax ?? / Net Debt ??

With full year figures so down, exceeding expectations seems like a very feasible reality against very low comparables.

The turning point for Trakm8 will be when they announce they are back to net cash as this is the #1 worry of the market here. As soon as cash is back on the positive, this share's risk profile will improve dramatically as growth is still spectacular and recurring revenues continue to rise every year, along with margins.

[jamiemp] 24/11/2017 16:51

I bought another 10k today, hope I don't regret come Monday! Good luck all holders

[blondeamon] 24/11/2017 15:50

In my opinion, this will be a lot higher by year end than it is today. People will look back at these prices and wish they gotten advantage of them.

My biggest holding and plan to hold for a very long time.

Edit: Nice 50k buy today, someone spends some serious cash.