Trakm8 Share Discussion Threads

[jamiemp] 04/12/2017 09:39

Allenby Capital covered Trakm8 in a note today. Good to see them get some air time.


Really I think they've reached a plateau where they're streets ahead of similar sized competitors but far too small to achieve real economies of scale on cost like the larger players.


What this needs is someone in the same space to snap it up and gut the shared services portion of the overhead: senior management, business development, accounts, HR. At this price even Quartix could make money off it.

[jamiemp] 04/12/2017 08:42

Worth every penny.

[pj 1] 04/12/2017 08:35

I cannot if I wanted to, Blue poster

[she-ra] 04/12/2017 08:13

PJ 1 - I was called a psycho by jamiemp I see you haven't removed that

[pj 1] 04/12/2017 08:08

she-ra. Keep to Trak. Calling people clowns for expressing their views will not prompt intelligent discussion will it?

Alternatively please keep to the other BB which certain posters have tried to resurrect

[arthur_lame_stocks] 04/12/2017 04:47

This company is hopelessly overvalued IMO. The shares are worth about 50p.

Arthur

[3500sr] 04/12/2017 01:51

My concern is with the product. I was a shareholder in Trakm8, liked the idea of the product and was interested to try it when Direct Line offered us a black box in return for a lower premium when we added our daughter to our insurance. I didn't know how it worked till we fitted it. Each time you drive you get a score out of 100, based on about 5 different aspects of the drive. Some of it, which relates directly to your driving is fine. However, one of the five aspects you get a score for is the time of day you drive. We discovered that if you drive the car around the time school starts or finishes you automatically get a red danger score even on quiet country roads miles from the nearest pedestrian. It was similar if you drive mid evening. My point is that your insurer determines your next year's premium based on your scores during the year. If you have no choice but to drive at those times of day to get to work, then your chance of an optimum score is severely reduced and your insurance premium could rise.
We chose to return the black box after 2 weeks for the reasons above. We tried to give feedback but were not confident that our concerns were listened to. Perhaps we are unusual in our reaction but we felt it was a bit of a blunt tool as it stands. Michaelmouse, I was surprised and disappointed to be blocked on twitter when I responded to your Trakm8 re-tweet. I think the product must surely be important when considering holding a share.

[jamiemp] 03/12/2017 23:15

Enjoy your echo chamber gentlemen.

[michaelmouse] 03/12/2017 21:12

jamiemp - "The results narrative has references to uncertainty and falling margins absent from (but germane to) the TU."

she-ra has given the context around your "uncertainty" comment in post 2218, and gross margins were maintained at 48%.

Your statement as I said before is simply untrue.

I don't think it's me that's lost the plot. :)

Anyway, let's see what happens in the next few weeks and months.

[she-ra] 03/12/2017 20:12

Paul you don't sound like someone who "holds a position in" this company.

Sad to read you suffered in the financial crisis (and I genuinely mean that; it must have been horrific) but with regards to your comments on Trakm8 I know this is not the way you talk about shares you do have a position in.

I think you want in Trakm8 at a lower price and desire others to sell to push it down. This is probably the line from the results that excites you about the company:

"The outcome for the full year is less dependent on securing contracts from new customers than in previous years. The outcome is dependent on existing customer contracts where there is a level of uncertainty of end user demand. The Board remains confident that the market expectations will be met for the full year."

And you know if it wins new contracts, which it probably will, expectations could be easily beaten.

[jamiemp] 03/12/2017 19:43

Deception? Think you've lost the plot too my friend.

The results narrative has references to uncertainty and falling margins absent from (but germane to) the TU.

[michaelmouse] 03/12/2017 19:02

I summarized the facts (re: interims) here in case anyone missed it:-

[michaelmouse] 03/12/2017 18:20

In fairness, I think she-ra is probably angry with the (at best) inaccurate statements made by paulypilot and jamiemp. I quote them below:-

jamiemp - "The thing I found disappointing was they dropped the effusive tone of the TU which was only a few weeks before."

paulypilot - "However, it's really the company's fault - it trumpeted strong cash generation in a trading update, but that turned out to be somewhat misleading when the figures were published - the cash generation actually mainly came from a tax credit, and favourable working capital movement."

I have read both the trading statement and the half-year report jamiemp. Please point me to the effusive tone in the trading update and where the half-year report differs? In summary, they both say trading is in line and the second half will be stronger than the first half.

I can't find any reference to strong cash generation in the trading update paulypilot? So how can it be misleading? The trading update merely referred to the reduced debt and cash on balance sheet which was totally in-line with the reported results. It did not refer to cash generation.

On the face of it gentleman the evidence points to an attempted deception on your part.

I am also baffled as to why paulypilot appears to be promoting spread betting? Surely this would have put him off for life:-



"This is what he said in the City AM interview: ““I lost the lot and had to start all over again in the financial crisis. It was horrendous, it ruined my life at the time. I had to sell my house, I lost all my savings, I ended up £2m in debt. It was a catastrophe.”

"The article suggests Scott made two mistakes: “One was investing in stocks with low liquidity. The other was gearing up on them through spread-betting. When the crisis hit, he couldn’t get out.”"

It doesn't really sit well with his earlier post does it?

Anyway, all views bull and bear are welcome of course, but please keep them factual.

[blondeamon] 03/12/2017 17:12

I asked PJ1 again to ban her, I have her filtered since ages. Looks like a clinical case.

[jamiemp] 03/12/2017 16:52

She-ra I've seen all sorts on these boards but you are an absolute psycho.

[she-ra] 03/12/2017 15:18

Its interesting that Paul Scott (PaulyPilot) should take issue with the strong cash generation and imply they they "trumpeted" the higher figure and then sneaked in the actual figure after the tax credit. Well they didn't it was in the very next sentence. You would think they had it in the notes to the accounts but I suppose Paul thinks that if he repeats this assertion people will start to believe it. Very Donald Trump.

What I find interesting from Paul "I used to be a finance director you know" Scott is that when I was pointing out the terribly bad financials of DX he was ignoring it. I think you lost 60% in the same day you bought them didn't you? Didn't mention anything about any nasties being hidden in DX's results. Oh and then they needed a rescue fundraising. But your an accountant and I suppose you knew best. Shame your followers had to lose though wasn't it.

And then there's your investment in Indigovision, a company that isn't profitable, where cash is going down and operating in a saturated market. You must be down at least 50% there?

But hey ho you keep telling us Trakm8 were somehow trying to hoodwink us all by telling us in the very next sentence about the tax credit.

£1.92 million cash generation for one half is pretty impressive.

But I suppose Paul knows that and wants in. I see Blondeamon has toned the negative stuff down but his colleague at Stockopedia turns up and slams it. Interesting.

[jamiemp] 03/12/2017 14:54

I'll admit to being confused on the cash issue: I understand where it came from but in the end, you can't pay off debt by overstating your accounts. My own company does some work for which it receives tax credits. But if we didn't get them, we just cut the associated overhead. I'm certain trak would cut down on r and d if they weren't offsetting it. I can't really see how it's different from any other form of revenue.

The thing I found disappointing was they dropped the effusive tone of the TU which was only a few weeks before.

[michaelmouse] 03/12/2017 14:02

I've thought long and hard about how to answer the last three posts reasonably succinctly. Here goes:-

nod - I bought the majority of my holding in Avesco between prices of 20p-30p. I just rode the waves (with some top-up at 80p), the take-out price was £6.50 with hefty dividends and a £1.10 special along the way. That's because I got to know the company inside out over the years. It always looked cheap. Why on earth would I have traded or top-sliced? I can't predict short term share price movements which are often exacerbated (manipulated) by traders/short sellers. Frankly I don't give a monkey's what they do. Just as well eh?

blondeamon - "Very fair point, top slicing is always a prudent strategy." Not always. See above.

paulypilot - Your point about the strong cash generation is largely irrelevant. They generated £3.56m however it's accounted for. Net debt has virtually halved at £2.32m and cash has improved to £2.72m, and hence the balance sheet is looking increasingly healthy. I think it'll look even better at the full year.

Finally, you say, "It's been rather disappointing to see the recent share price peak at 152p, and now drop back to 107p."

Trakm8 are likely to make around £30m in revenues this year. Given that similar companies are being bought for at least 4 times revenues, that suggests fair value for Trakm8 (now) is around £120m or £3.30 per share. Why would an investor with a long view care about short term price fluctuations?

Incidentally, I believe that a bid will eventually come at a minimum of £5+.

Ride the waves and relax.

Good luck.

[paulypilot] 03/12/2017 12:53

Spread bets are not just for short term trades. I use spread bets for tax efficiency, and a moderate amount of gearing. Plus you can balance up longs with shorts in a spread bet account, to reduce overall market risk.

For example with TRAK, I've got long spread bets open with Spreadex, which were opened between Mar 2017 (at 65p) and Sept 2017 (between 79-92p). These positions just roll automatically every night.

It's been rather disappointing to see the recent share price peak at 152p, and now drop back to 107p. However, it's really the company's fault - it trumpeted strong cash generation in a trading update, but that turned out to be somewhat misleading when the figures were published - the cash generation actually mainly came from a tax credit, and favourable working capital movement.

I'm afraid this is something of a pattern with this company - over-promising, and exaggerating the positives. They need to reign in the urge to selectively highlight positives out of context, and instead just tell it like it is. That's a much better approach long term.

Overall the interim results looked OK to me, and certainly makes this share worth continuing to hold, in my opinion. Hopefully the continued investment in product development should pay off at some point.

I might buy more if the price continues to slide, haven't decided definitely yet, but it's coming back into possible buying range, IMO.

Regards, Paul.

[she-ra] 03/12/2017 12:11

I'll stick to discussing the company in future. Ok Blonde?