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[bullster] 31/1/2017 12:22

Easy to follow.




LIVE TRADES

[timojelly] 31/1/2017 08:35

Thanks in advance for any feedback mw99

[croasdalelfc] 31/1/2017 08:23

Bought a few this morning with a 8p target

[timojelly] 31/1/2017 06:49

I can smell that RNS from here..

[pavey ark] 30/1/2017 20:46

nw99, a bit far for me but I'd love to be there, I take it you're going ?

At the end of his presentation last year Simon kings did say that they had a stand at the show so people could meet up with them there.

If you are going you could get a chance to ask him a few things and if you do it would be great if you could post the details of his answers.

Off the top of my head I would sound him out on :-

1. How significant are the MoD contracts ? (big deal or just a formalisation of contracts they would have got over the 7/8years anyway)
2. Will the D&T unit ever make a profit ?
3. Acquisitions ? how much cash can they realistically carry on the books before things get a bit silly ?
4. MS unit, how are things going ?
5. from this event last year until today have things gone better,worse or just as you had hoped ?

From the above you can get an idea of the sort of way I'd go but each to his own and you are the one making the effort to go.

Again I hope you let us know how you get on and I am assuming we will get a video like last year but of course we can't ask questions.

[nw99] 30/1/2017 13:25

Investor day tomorrow at 10.35 who else is attending

[timojelly] 29/1/2017 16:22

Over 10p this year without a doubt

[pavey ark] 29/1/2017 14:41

Well the most recent comment from the company , besides the notification of the substantial rise in the cash pile, is that the full year results should be more in line with the revised broker's forecast.
The house broker has now increased their figures for this year by 33% so everyone should now be singing from the same sheet.
The EBITDA figure looks like being c. £1m but it would have to be c. £1.3m to give an overall, pre tax, break even figure.

Safe to say that cash is now being generated and we can look forward to Simon Kings giving us more info on Tuesday.

Before we leave last year's figures it is important to note that they suffered from the very last of the tidy up costs in the D&T (compressor) unit and the large loss in the engineering unit in H1.
I confidently expect a further reduction in D&T losses from £1m to c. £500k and a £1m turnaround in engineering, giving an immediate boost of £1.5m in 2017.(I think the engineering unit will be a star next year and could produce even better figures.)

The MoD contracts and numerous others in the pipeline means that the Maritime business will continue its inexorable advance.

I would like to hear more from Simon Kings on the MS unit as he was very enthusiastic about it last year.

I confidently predict a minimum EBITDA of £3m in 2017 and cash of c. £11m.

These figures would comfortably support a 9p share price and an EV/EBITDA ratio of 9.

In broker speak "I see upside risk to my forecasts"

On the acquisitions front they are obviously being very cautious but in fairness they have had plenty to be going on with.
As I am using a ratio of 9 for EV/EBITDA it looks to me that the right addition will quickly show up on the bottom line.
Buying a small/medium bolt on it should be possible to absorb their central costs and put additional work their way so that your return exceeds the value of the cash.

Overall there is plenty of obvious upside with little obvious risk as lots of cash is always a comfort, even if the market gives it very little value.

[bullster] 27/1/2017 12:57

Easy to follow.




LIVE TRADES

[glennborthwick] 26/1/2017 20:28

I know what you mean. Nothing worse than a thread ruined. I do quite a lot of work with apprentices as well which is good.

[supernumerary] 26/1/2017 20:20

A pity - I was in Berlin just before and after the wall fell and it was such an exciting place - I've no doubt fortunes were made there as they were in most of the Iron Curtain countries. Of course it helped if you started as a member of the KGB ;¬)

My early retirement stuck, thankfully, but not without its challenges. I bet most of your sixth formers are on these boards, posting 24/7 - it sometimes feels like it...

[glennborthwick] 26/1/2017 20:09

Yes split from business partner during the banking crisis. We struggled to get mortgages. Luckily I'd invested loq profits and other stuff in uk properties so not all bad. Took early retirement at 48 but actually back teaching sixth form

[supernumerary] 26/1/2017 19:45

Hi Glenn - good to hear you're doing well. I'm surviving - always well buoyed by acso of course. I was in here a very long time ago, but sold out when Cartmell and co took over - happy to take my 16-17p although missed out on much greater profits by not running a stop loss.

Cartmell grossly underestimated the problems here when he arrived and couldn't cope, but the company's been completely rejigged since then to fit a model he's familiar with - he has form doing the same thing at Vega - so I think the prospects look at the least decent. He's still a greedy sod who hates PIs, so take care though ;¬)

OT What happened to your Berlin stuff - did that all die a death?

[glennborthwick] 26/1/2017 19:09

haha nice to see you here. Are you looking?
I'm on quite a good run recently. Zin trebled in a few months, distil doubled, currebtly holding both plus cssg zoo and here.

[supernumerary] 26/1/2017 18:50

glenn - keep up! It's fifteen quid a share these days...

[timojelly] 26/1/2017 17:56

I hope this one works out for you at that return! £1 will definitely do me!

[glennborthwick] 26/1/2017 17:09

very eloquent Bullster

don't worry about me though I'm a big boy playing in the aim cesspool with the sharks with money I can afford to lose.

I'm ok at this game.

Done well over the years with various micros however tend to sell too soon

I bought LOQ at 5p and thought id done well selling at a £1. 6 years later its £14 a share.

Wont make the same mistake again, Buy and hold now for me.

Successes for me, loq pla, rtc, did, zin, cssg

failures zzz, pip - you cant win them all

[timojelly] 26/1/2017 16:46

Next leg up coming

[tday] 26/1/2017 15:13

Topped up with another 206,000 in two tranches.

[bullster] 26/1/2017 15:01

Well done glennborthwick.

You will now be lowered down a dark, deep, narrow hole, to suck out the gas of prosperity, biding time at a thousand fathoms until the pure air can give astute forethought before launching a trident like armageddon of wealth explosion.



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[glennborthwick] 26/1/2017 13:22

been watching for a while. Dipped my toe in today.

[pavey ark] 25/1/2017 08:36

I said in an earlier post that the cash figure should give an insight into the actual bottom line performance and these figures strongly suggest an overall profit, not just at an EBITDA level.
£250k redundancy payments, a complete revamp of the engineering unit, a new paint shop installed, money spent on building up the MS unit and still cash rises by £2.2m!!
A few years ago this company was losing £5m a year and has got to where it is by means of a logical and steady improvement which now looks to have moved into overdrive.

[paulgo] 25/1/2017 08:06

That £9.2m cash 'alone' works out at 2.1p/share....important distinction.