Touchstone Exploration Share Discussion Threads

[mount teide] 11/3/2021 12:43

As I know from personal experience, a 40ft container will also hold 11.1 million cigarettes (or 60,000 Apple iPhone 12's) - that gives an insurance value north of £6m.

Having had a 40ft container loaded with cigarettes stolen from a Port I ran, we considered it a seriously good result to get an offer of £750k(subsequently paid out by our insurers), accepted by a well known global cigarette manufacturer as full and final settlement of the loss.

The criminals effected the theft with one of the most simple, well planned and brilliantly executed scams I'd seen in a long career in the Ports and Shipping industry.

All containers loaded with cigarettes for shipping out from the Port were given a Police escort from the manufacturing plant to the Port. One of the gang that carried out the theft, noted down the number of the container arriving at the Port with the Police Escort.

The gang then had a set of duplicate container numbers for one of the empty containers in storage at the port made up, and during the dead of the night sent their heavily disguised 'truck driver' to the terminal in an unmarked white truck/trailer with false plates and paperwork to match to pick up this empty container ..... but, after being given access to the terminal, he drove around the container storage park to the stacks where the container loaded with cigarettes were stowed and out of shot of the scanning CCTV camera's, put the made up container numbers over the actual numbers on the side and rear of the container.

Then promptly found and asked the terminal container lift operator on duty to load that container onto his road trailer. When he arrived at the terminal exit gate with the container, the paperwork checked out with the numbers on the side and rear of the 'Empty' container, and off he drove with circa £6m of cigarettes.

The truck/container was subsequently tracked by police through the use of roadside CCTV camera's to a small warehouse on a local industrial estate - the cigarettes long gone!

[pro_s2009] 11/3/2021 12:33

With regards to Kraken moving backwards and also no talk of Steelhead.

If you have just discovered a buckload of oil, and an updip location that might deliver 100 million barrels of oil and appraise Chinook at the same time...........I think thats more priority than chasing unknowns........

All will come out in the wash with time :) I am super relaxed.

[spangle93] 11/3/2021 12:29

KS/HBR - that's right - oil could deliver $1MM a month, and cover ongoing costs, but $1MM a month doesn't bootstrap fund a drilling campaign.

Anyway, just trying to add some realism. I wasn't able to see the presentation last night, but recent events have had discussions about development drilling in parallel with exploration and activity on the shallow oil, so I just wondered how far our pot stretched

[junky monkey] 11/3/2021 12:22

For the Drilling rig shipping. It will be more like some 20ft container sized units, maybe some 40 ft containers, and some odd sized modules that will be sent on the deck of a ship. The ISO containers might go with this, or just normal container ship, but anything odd shaped or without ISO corners will go on the boat with the derrick. All in all, not a difficult thing to ship, just costs a bit. Depending on how much equipment, might just rent a vessel and stick everything on it. Hope it doesn't sink, or there will be a delay to get a new vessel and buy another rig. not that many vessels sink anymore anyway. No nasty weather places between the gulf and Trinidad either.

[buffythebuffoon] 11/3/2021 11:50

Well, and I know this won’t help, a 40ft container can hold 12,000 shoes boxes.

I’m not sure if that applies to a big order from Richard Osman and Greig Davies though.

Buffy
Never knowingly useful

[captainfatcat] 11/3/2021 11:47

Out of curiosity Im wondering how many containers it takes to ship a high-powered telescoping drilling rig?

[buffythebuffoon] 11/3/2021 11:46

Spangle,

“
I don't want to morph into rossannan, but unless there's a clear line of sight to money coming in with certainty, the idea of 2 or even 3 rigs in continuous operation is fanciful.”

He seemed to confirm that we wouldn’t have three rigs drilling. Sounds good to me. He has a history of saying one thing and doing another, so IMO the chance of running three rigs simultaneously has gone up; but not before mid 2022 at the earliest. :^}

I think there’s very little chance we’ll be sold this year. Majors are looking for visibility and an appropriate IRR, not huge multi-baggers like us PIs. They can wait.

I don’t imagine anyone would think they can make an opportunistic bid.

Buffy

[stockport loser] 11/3/2021 11:43

I doubt that PB would be planning a dividend early 2022 if they did not have cash flow for ops. PB has always stated he will not add debt for explo but can for development - the facility can be upped if needed post Coho/ pre Cas revenues. Also comparing time to deliver production to Coho pre deal to now is not realistic. Although the timeframe is firmly in the hands of the operator

[king suarez] 11/3/2021 11:41

There is still PPT (and the green levy and corporation tax) to pay out of that legacy oil-field cash flow, so the net-cash flow won't be as high as the gross cash flow MT has stated imho. Still, could be netting us around $1m a month free cash flow after taxes I would expect, which is a huge improvement?

[captainfatcat] 11/3/2021 11:41

Crikey just been looking over my ISA account and realised I still had my full 2020 allowance to go in!

Funny how things work out as it's perfect to re-home my closed TXP IG cash.

I don't often worry about a few pence here or there but it would certainly be nice to catch the bottom of the re-trace here as it surely must happen this week or next.

Only a few weeks ago sub £1.40 seemed unimaginable but the market if nothing else is very good at reminding us of its ability to do crazy unexpected s#it sometimes.

Ps thanks for all the feedback from last night's AJ Bell investors presentation.

[homebrewruss] 11/3/2021 11:36

MT agreed, Paul mentioned last night that the oil is now paying all company costs.

I think it's worth us doing some modelling of cash requirements for this year based on known well commitments and scenarios for what more they can do depending on when cash comes in from Cascadura etc.

I'm sure TXP will have done this already :) but of course we are not privy to it.

Any news on the drilling contract will be a tell but I guess they do have some flexibility already with debt including the previously trumpeted relationship with their new bankers in Trinidad.

[herschel k] 11/3/2021 11:34

spawny,

you should never have to apologise for selling shares you've made a profit on, even if you still like the company.

no-one knows your personal circumstances, financial or otherwise; and if they did, I'd suggest you're giving out too much information on a public forum (LOL).

I could sell some shares today and pay off my mortgage completely, buy a new car (a very decent one), etc.

I don't, only because mortgage rates are exceptionally cheap and my mortgage is small anyway.

To be honest, if i did sell any here, I wouldn't post that I had as my attitude towards TXP wouldn't have changed, just my personal circumstances that necessitated the sale of some of my holding (doesn't actually matter when it is forced, or through choice!).

You took a big risk here many months ago.

Despite the fact that I don't know you from Adam, I for one am really pleased for you that it worked out.

Cheers,

H

[davidblack] 11/3/2021 11:33

One drill rig only until the new one arrives at which point Cascadura will be just about there.

Also the dry season starts in January so that’s when the new rig will be required.

Plenty of cash in place plus a lick of finance if required to cover all the drilling especially with Coho producing $500k a month.

The interesting dark horse upside is the Extended Well Test. Assuming Chinook comes after Cascadura production wise and that EWT produced say 200 barrels a day that might well be left producing?

At $45 net thats worth $270k to the partners so $216k to TXP plus a very long test period for data.

[mount teide] 11/3/2021 11:32

After a brutal 2020, don't forget to factor in the cash flow contribution from the legacy oil business, which like the oil price has since risen like a phoenix from the ashes into 2021!

In the first 9 months of 2020, the legacy oil business generated a $14.66/bbl netback at a circa average $37.50/bbl Brent price.

At today's $69 Brent the net backs could be north of $45/bbl.

As a consequence, today with 1,350 bopd of production and no SPT below $75/bbl, the legacy oil business is probably generating around $20.0m-22.5m of annual cash flow at the present oil price.

AIMHO/DYOR

[awise355] 11/3/2021 11:23

Will buy it all back mind just supercharging it on various other short term ops with good prospects should I not be able to buy back the 35,000 shares

[awise355] 11/3/2021 11:22

Similar actually 35% sold

[spawny100] 11/3/2021 11:19

Precisely my concerns with timing spangle. Also Paul himself said timing is the biggest potential challenge. I don't want to post frequently as it puts others backs up thinking I'm trying to talk the price down or justify my selling. I'm not. I'm just following my general adage that if I wouldn't buy more of a share at current prices I should consider selling ones already held. I've been very open with selling here from 170+ until this week. Kept 30% of my holding. It may prove to be a terrible misjudgement in the longer term but I'd just done too well here and made significant money for me to risk leaving it all here.

[milliecusto] 11/3/2021 11:11

We may get snapped up prior to realising full value, clear share price wills be at multiples medium term

[herschel k] 11/3/2021 10:48

russ,

thanks - replied.

H

[king suarez] 11/3/2021 10:43

I'm expecting some debt financing, based on the reserves - to fast-track initial production wells?

[spangle93] 11/3/2021 10:42

Let's say spawny is correct, a feeling I also share based on past delivery against self-set timetables, and that the wall of cash doesn't start in Dec 2021 but in March 2022.

How many wells could then be drilled in the next 12 months from what remains of the November $30MM raise, plus some revenue from ongoing operations and Coho, perhaps April probably May, plus whatever cash was left in November?

I don't want to morph into rossannan, but unless there's a clear line of sight to money coming in with certainty, the idea of 2 or even 3 rigs in continuous operation is fanciful.

[homebrewruss] 11/3/2021 10:32

Hershel I've sent you a pm

[herschel k] 11/3/2021 10:31

thanks bull

[thebull8] 11/3/2021 10:30

They said they'd look to put it on the shares magazine website within a week or so