Touchstone Exploration Share Discussion Threads

[thebull8] 10/3/2021 11:23

Come on let's keep the board nice and friendly.....makes a change from some of the others I read Spawny is entitled to his opinion. Doesn't really make much of a difference now does it?

[spawny100] 10/3/2021 11:22

Lol. I still have plenty here SL. I've sold quite a lot from 170 down as have concerns about time lines being hit that's all and have made a life changing amount of money here. I'd prefer to hear about gas volumes as opposed to barrels for a company that's primarily into gas. Hardly putting my cubic foot in my mouth is it?

[pro_s2009] 10/3/2021 11:12

10th March 2021

Interview with Paul Baay of TXP.



.

[hiddendepths] 10/3/2021 11:06

Correction over, methinks. All aboard! Any more for any more?

[11_percent] 10/3/2021 10:37

'will probably announce results as we go' for current testing

=====

Good stuff.....so, 2 results (Casc & Chinook) coming up.

[spawny100] 10/3/2021 10:13

Lol. I don't like the habit at my 'beloved' SAVE either SL. Why do you get so chippy anytime anyone criticises your beloved TXP for anything? Never fall in love with a share.

[stockport loser] 10/3/2021 10:10

Think you find its industry standard, go read the reports on your beloved Save, they do the same. Barrels of oil equivalent.

[homebrewruss] 10/3/2021 10:08

'will probably announce results as we go' for current testing

[homebrewruss] 10/3/2021 09:53

Here's the new Director's talk interview:

[spawny100] 10/3/2021 09:44

Just listened to the Directors Talk interview. I wish Paul would stop referring to the reserves as barrels when it's gas. It's a disingenuous sleight of hand imo when the cash values are wildly different.

[highly geared] 10/3/2021 09:43

Thebull8 , superb and balanced post 👍

[dunderheed] 10/3/2021 09:42

17271, yes but likely "industry" will take onboard "before" market revaluation?

[thebull8] 10/3/2021 09:38

You make a fair point but the figures are too simplistic in my opinion. The figure before tax for 2P reserves is $689million. If the figure after tax is $289million then they are discounting 57% for taxation. Having spoke to TXP around taxation they confirmed they are working towards 35% net tax which is in line with the figure used in Finncap broker note. This is made possible due to the lower taxation on gas and accounting discounts. Shares are valued on earnings rather than reserves. The flow tests from Cascadura showed incredible flow rates which will allow a huge jump in free cash flow given the fantastic contract Paul negotiated - no CAPEX costs, no transportation costs, no debt - just instant capital. Remember that Cascadura maxed out the testing equipment at around 5100bopde at each zone. TXP confirmed they have submitted plans for eight production wells at Cascadura. Each zone provides 10,000bopde then we're looking at 80,000bopde from Cascadura alone. This is equivalent of 464,000 MCF. Given TXP are getting around $2.50 per mcf a $1 profit per mcf is not unrealistic - $170million free cash flow per year. Don't worry about the reserves. These will get bigger. Cascadura is unbounded and they have found additional zones lower than Cascadura ST1 depth. The RNS confirmed Cascadura Deep gave them knowledge to target individual gas pools so each production well could yield further reserves. The market probably won't get this until the financial reports start coming out

[davidblack] 10/3/2021 09:31

Valhamos rather hoping that in a years time that a bit of hope value is in the price rather than a discount to the NI51-101 based numbers which under Canadian rules are designed to understate the facts materially.

Canadian resource rules are skewed towards being overly conservative because of the Bre-X scandal in the 1990s.

Initially just metals and then hydrocarbons because it permitted the embedding of lots of fees for professionals and later it permits cheap takeovers by bigger companies thus increasing investment banks M&A fees and those are the people with the ear of the regulators.

So don’t assume those NI 51-101 numbers are “True and fair.”

[homebrewruss] 10/3/2021 09:14

Not impossible is it Valhamos?
They have the intermediate zone at Cascadura, Chinook, plus more pay in lower zone now first found in Cascadura ST1 and then anything from Royston etc all to add into reserves this time next year.

[valhamos] 10/3/2021 09:07

DB - the reserves last Friday produced a 2P NPV10 after tax amount of $289.2m which gives $1.38 or £1 per share. So wouldn't the reserves, at least on a 2P basis, need to more than treble to justify a share price of £5 in a year's time?

[spangle93] 09/3/2021 22:57

HBR - well remembered on your research. It just goes to show that they don't state of the art drilling equipment to make successful wells here.


Not sure this has been posted, apologies if I'm behind time. This link courtesy of Lynn Anderson, subsurface manager, Touchstone, on LinkedIn

[davidblack] 09/3/2021 22:27

£5 with treble the reserves of last Friday in my case.

Based on Royston coming good but not blowing the doors off and TXP focusing on infill drilling at Cascadura and Chinook to set up the wall of cash for 2022.

It’s will also make Heritage and NGC very happy which should cascade up into the Government being very helpful elsewhere.

[milliecusto] 09/3/2021 21:48

What kind of share price do we expect in say a year time

[davidblack] 09/3/2021 21:42

From Oilnow magazine

The success rate of global conventional oil and gas exploration has declined in recent years, but the most painful blow has been to onshore wildcat wells, a Rystad Energy analysis reveals. In 2020, the success rate of these drilled wildcats plummeted to an all-time-low of 10.6%, marking an annual decline for a fourth year in a row.

Someone clearly needs to tell TXP to not screw up the numbers by hitting strike after strike!

[thebull8] 09/3/2021 20:55

What answer did you expect? A full chapter and verse on the price action with reference to individual buyers and sellers

[dunderheed] 09/3/2021 20:49

17261, he he.

[ngms27] 09/3/2021 20:43

Yes it's a guess and not substantive

[thebull8] 09/3/2021 19:11

I was watching the price action earlier. It jumped from down 1.20% or something like that to up 2.83% in 10 seconds My guess that shorts are closing at these levels.