Touchstone Exploration Share Discussion Threads

[zeusfurla] 09/3/2021 19:08

Seems to be high volume in Toronto this week - any reasons why?

[thebull8] 09/3/2021 18:45

I contacted TXP to ask about inflation linked to the gas contract. They replied"Although I am able to tell you that the gas price is a fixed price with an annual escalator tied to inflation and then after five years there is a price reopener if either party requires"

[apad] 09/3/2021 18:43

Homebrewruss.
Blimey, that's impressive research! 😊
I did a redartbmud trade on a boring, but mildly profitable, GSK holding and bought some more TXP in a desperate search for excitement in lockdown land.
I guess tomorrow's presentation will disappoint a few folks.
apad

[thebull8] 09/3/2021 18:31

We will definitely benefit from fund/ETF buying as we start producing and the share price goes higher. TXP was added to the S&P500/TSX small cap ETF in November with a weighting of 0.3%. Only about $149m in funds track this ETF but it's a good start.As the market cap increases we could see inclusion on the S&P/TSX completion index and numerous MSCI indexes which have billion of dollar tracking them. It will also bring attention to TXP for other funds aiming to beat the market. iOS TXP listed in the main TSX market? Could be a long time before upgrade to FTSE250 in fairness

[homebrewruss] 09/3/2021 18:30

Fingers crossed for the current oil production test, this from an old paper from 1958:

'Since 1936 the Penal oil field of Shell Trinidad, Ltd., situated in southern Trinidad, B.W.I., has been developed into a 6,500 b/d field producing both from a shallow pool and from deeper, Miocene Herrera sands at depths ranging from 4,000 to 10,000 feet. The Herrera has been proved productive from three superimposed tectonic levels, of which the intermediate one forms an overturned limb or an intricately built wedge. About 60 Herrera wells produce oil, condensate and/or gas; some of them came in with an initial production of more than 1,000 b/d, and five wells have reached a cumulative production of more than 1,000,000 barrels. The sands range in thickness from 50 to 300 feet in the overthrust, and are more than 800 feet thick in the second (intermediate) and third level (underthrust).'

[red rook] 09/3/2021 18:12

... thebull8 ....''Not sure how you suggest they can force more institutional investors to buy?''...

... its true that we're in the fortunate position that TXP doesn't need a placing. It's cashed up, and a 'wall of cash' will soon be inbound
... if a takeover bid doesn't arrive before the end of year, then IMO TXP will move to the main market. Many big institutional investors will not look at AIM stock. Once on the main market they will be very interested.

[thebull8] 09/3/2021 14:42

Hmm down 1.21% then up 2.83% (Canada) Think the shorts have decided this is low enough to grab the profit

[onedayrodders] 09/3/2021 13:53

yep .. nothing has changed

In these situations I make sure I never look at the hit to my portfolio value.

You know it's there but it helps reduce the stress.

[stockport loser] 09/3/2021 13:30

Weve had this several times since the 20p days, mainly North but Edale also. In these down periods theres just not enough buying pressure, plus the reduction in liquidity due to IG. But the story and the upside have not changed, if anything they are stronger given the " tremendous " potential of these new oil plays. Delays in O&G companies is par for the course.

[thebull8] 09/3/2021 10:54

Remember that these dips are healthy. No stock goes up in a straight line. While frustrating - trust me I'm cursing not selling at 180p and re-buying at 140p - but this dip allows newer investors to come in. These newer investors will be looking for a good returns well past 200p per share. People only buy at highs if there is a genuine, market capitalisation altering event. Nobody expected Cascadura to be as good as it was which resulted in investor buying at highs and pushing it higher. If Royston comes in anything like Cascadura then we can expect similar levels of buying IMO.

[1domus] 09/3/2021 10:41

2 weeks extended flowtest

[davidblack] 09/3/2021 10:24

Henley it’s clear Paul Baay is more than comfortable with promotion and in that context you wonder why he isn’t touting TXP as a ESG Gas Transition play with secure revenues? He is certainly not shy about pushing the story?

So you then have to ask the question do they actually believe that the other targets may well be oil with gas rather than oily gas as at Cascadura and Chinook.

Mind you if either Royston or Kraken turned out to be a nice sweet API 35 as being tested at Chinook that might add a bit of omph! to the value. Just musing of course.

[henley2] 09/3/2021 10:14

They can force them to buy by getting out and marketing the story to institutions so they see what a compelling investment the TXP story is.
Lack of interest in oil and gas? Have you seen the performance of the sector recently?
Not everyone has an ESG focus, they are interested in performance.

[davidblack] 09/3/2021 10:09

The Bull it would be nice to see PB to do some promotion on Canadian media. In the last year with all the promotion via London we have seen Canadian shares being migrated to London it would appear.

Just a little promotion there because that also spills out south of the border.

[mount teide] 09/3/2021 10:00

Well, to this shareholder, the fundamentals suggest considerable confidence about where the valuation is likely to be in 2-3 years time....everything else is just short term noise.

Buy value, then sit back and let great management and time work its magic.

Long term buy and hold investing, although deeply unfashionable today, is what a good number of PI's have been doing at TXP since summer 2017 - its proved a strategy that has looked after us very well - why change a winning strategy for a 20% IG driven pullback.

At CMS, employing a 15-20% rolling stop loss I would have been stopped out at least 15 times over a seven year period....... missing out on over 500% of capital growth on top of receiving my original investment back in dividends.

AIMHO/DYOR

[thebull8] 09/3/2021 10:00

Not sure how you suggest they can force more institutional investors to buy? They have some decent ii holdings and I'm sure they are out there selling the company as much as they can - the presentations are exceptional. The only way I can think they can get ii investors is through placements but we are in a position where we don't need any. There is just a lack of interest in the oil and gas industry at present. On the flip side - the poor liquidity and small share registry works well on good results in that nobody can buy and the share price goes up very quickly

[hiddendepths] 09/3/2021 09:54

I think that's harsh henley. The company has had to wait and wait for others. It's often like that in this industry - factors outside the company's control.

What Paul has unfortunately got a habit of doing, however, is giving dates which are on the assumption that everything happens like clockwork, no hitches, no delays. This hardly ever happens in life and it particularly doesn't in the oil and gas industry. So realistic dates, assuming the inevitable slippage, would avoid the succession of disappointments that investors feel. This is a very common failing in company management but someone needs to tell Paul that he's not helping anyone when he gives optimistic dates and timelines. Someone needs to persuade him that he should assume, say, 30% slippage on absolutely everything. If, on the odd occasion, everything happens without any delays everyone thinks the company has done very well and management is praised.

It's managing expectations, which seems to be harder than rocket science in this business!

[dunderheed] 09/3/2021 09:54

Agree with that too h2 but still doesn't mean an opportunistic bid may present itself.
Got to land Royston first of course and hopefully oil reserves in Chinook. IMHO.

[henley2] 09/3/2021 09:50

The company also needs to strengthen its share register.
For a £300 million market cap it has too few institutional investors and pathetic daily liquidity as highlighted by the IG forced selling by margined PI’s.

[dunderheed] 09/3/2021 09:47

Exactly h2 which, is why post Royston the likelihood is for an opportunistic bid, IMHO.

[henley2] 09/3/2021 09:42

Just stating facts.
The company seems very good at E but very poor at P.
Just wondering if the company has the requisite skill sets to monetise all the gas and oil it has found/hopes to find.
The example of Coho doesn’t fill me with great confidence that the timeline for first gas from Cascadura/Chinook is achievable.

[11_percent] 09/3/2021 09:37

Its about confidence, once its gone, takes a while to get it back.

[stockport loser] 09/3/2021 09:27

Your not here to make friends are you?

[henley2] 09/3/2021 09:24

Using usual TXP timelines you’ll be lucky to have any new news before May!