Touchstone Exploration Share Discussion Threads

[hiddendepths] 06/2/2023 19:13

Kraken is certainly the Guyana well if it delivers. Can't wait!

Dunderheed - easy enough to keep levelling accusations of incompetence at the company. I was told by an oil company CEO, a good friend, a few decades ago just how difficult it was to get anything at all done in Trinidad.

I am far from surprised by the company's failure to get any progress beyond a snail's pace. If it was as straightforward as you seem to think it ought to be, the prospects would have been brought discovered and brought onstream long, long ago. My sympathies are with the company and Paul Baay in particular. I do not agree at all with the widespread view that he is incompetent!

[homebrewruss] 06/2/2023 14:54

Chargg the market still needs convincing that TXP can produce from Royston commercially. Touchstone think they know where the water is in the overthrust and can selectively produce from there to make it economic.
The intermediate on the other hand produced at a very good rate and with no water from a relatively small intersection but was overshadowed by the inconclusive overthrust result.
Fingers crossed it's crystal clear from this well that the intermediate sheet is highly productive and maybe we also get something good from the subthrust exploration.

[charggg] 06/2/2023 14:41

And came across an interesting comment on the Kraken prospect by a poster called Richard Sneller on Twitter."TXP. If Kraken comes in ... Trinidad becomes the new Suriname/Guyana. Most exciting drill of 2022. Hat-tip to a boozy Frenchman who got me in years ago. Not investment advice. Obviously."hTTps://twitter.com/trickytenbagger/status/1450911305506906115?s=46&t=1blcxaDHYvu2tnR6wwSzWw

[charggg] 06/2/2023 14:36

Is Royston still an exploration prospect?Slide 12 is titled " Royston development", which follows Slide 11, titled "Cascadura development"Royston is already a discovery, and current well seems more of a development well than exploration?Then follows Slide 13; "Kraken – Cretaceous Prospect"January '23 presentation file;hTTps://www.touchstoneexploration.com/wp-content/uploads/2023/01/Corporate-Presentation-January-2023.pdf

[homebrewruss] 06/2/2023 14:27

Yes. IMV.
It also depends what any failure is due to, it may be drill specific.

They have previously said they have another 20 odd other exploration targets post Royston implying that they view these as separate.

Cascadura is very close to Royston.for instance but so far completely different with a highly stacked formation and lots of gas.

[joey1998] 06/2/2023 14:20

HBR, I need to go back over some of the old presentations to check on those targets. Are you saying you think a failure at Royston won’t impact any of the other prospects?

[joey1998] 06/2/2023 14:17

If Royston fails for geological reasons then I would expect any exploration in Ortoire to be re-evaluated. I mean, why wouldn’t they do that?

[ballymoss18] 06/2/2023 14:16

Eventually Cascadura seems extremely negative.Sounds like you are just trying to talk it down.

[homebrewruss] 06/2/2023 14:14

Joey, what about for instance drilling the extension (exploration) of Cascadura into the newly acquired block which I think they already have mapped out (but not shared), also updip at Chinook, Steelhead which is in the Karamat and Krakken in the Cretaceous.
Lots of different exploration targets to go for.

[johnoxxx] 06/2/2023 14:07

Would the next steps not be to follow the exploration phase 2 previously announced? Which wouldn’t take 2 years ?

[joey1998] 06/2/2023 13:49

If Royston-1X is failure then it could call in to question the assumptions that are driving the exploration programme. (It would depend why it failed).

Moreover, if it does fail, the producing assets would be Coho and - eventually - Cascadura, with nothing else on the horizon even close to production, as nothing else has been discovered. Drilling would be limited to in-fill wells at Casc whilst they go back to the drawing board to figure out next steps. That could easily take 2+ years.

[johnoxxx] 06/2/2023 13:27

Joey, why would exploration be years away- if at all? Casca when online will produce plenty of cash to drill, even if they just drilled Casca out to achieve max production. They would still have cash to explore after this which wouldn’t be years away? Not sure what you mean by “if at all”, you suggesting a poor result at royston would stop all future exploration? Lol

[ballymoss18] 06/2/2023 13:27

Surely either get out now or wait for Cascadura to start producing.Waiting for Royston to fail and then sell would be madness.They must be pretty confident on Royston to go in again imo.

[joey1998] 06/2/2023 12:58

I wonder what the floor is here.

Let’s say Royston-1X fails. Maybe another f’up with equipment lost in the well for example.

Where does that leave the SP? Somewhere around current levels? ‘Cos the allegedly-imminent Cascadura cash flow seems to have had zero impact on the share price

Just tying to think what makes a sensible exit price in case Royston fails again. If it does fail, I think surely any substantial new exploration would be years away (if at all?), and I wouldn’t fancy hanging around for that jam-tomorrow.

[homebrewruss] 06/2/2023 12:06

Hard to say, there are multiple permutations. Intermediate success would could give maybe $50m per year cashflow assuming 8 wells so that would be very material. Any similar success in the subthrust could add the same (subthrust possibility looks larger) but the subthrust is untested to date whereas the intermediate is more of an appraisal.
Also not long after we should get Cascadura online which should ultimately cover any downside in time.

So maybe 50% rise on Royston (intermediate) success? A good result in the subthrust could possibly take it higher.
Might be worth holding longer post a successful drill for Cascadura news (and further drills) if you were only planning holding for a short while ;)

[mynameiskhan] 06/2/2023 11:48

What's the share price, most are looking for on successful Royston drill (drill & test)

[hiddendepths] 06/2/2023 11:12

Buffy - maybe you should change your name to buffythestalebull?

I've been waiting for the exploration and appraisal phase to restart. I'm actually feeling optimistic now for the first time in ages. Royston looks to me to be very much commercial but we really do need more evidence so this sidetrack is most welcome.

I for one was delighted not to see a date for Casca. Persistently missing those dates for Coho and Casca has been the death of a thousand cuts for the share price.

[envestment] 06/2/2023 10:48

Why don't you sell and move on.......

[buffythebuffoon] 06/2/2023 10:29

‘ One thing about you Buffy is.....you live up to your name.....why don't you cheer on your company's RNS......you're always so negative’

Such a rapier wit Envestment, I’ve not heard that before.

‘Cheer on my company RNS’

‘Cheer?’ I read ‘em and think. What use is cheering?

‘ My company’. Ah, you fall in love with your investments do you?

I’ll leave you alone now. In a battle of wits it feels like I’m fighting a one armed man.

Regards,

Buffy

[here and there] 06/2/2023 09:37

And we are off and running.

[chessman2] 06/2/2023 09:35

At last we are on our way, northwards, I hope.

The coming months should be good for TXP and if the drills succeed, as expected, we will be well into three figures later this year.

[redartbmud] 06/2/2023 09:17

Not sure that he wrote it personally. It is too clear.
The Rns relays the facts, and the referral to days is a best estimate of an imprecise timeline.

This is a rare occasion on which I am satisfied with the information provided by PB.
I agree, however, that he could not resist mucking it up with the Cas comment, but I have lergely ignored that side note.
I am only interested in the current drill. It will, or will not, set the company on the track to eventually becoming a serious producer rather than a little speculator poking the odd 'random' hole here and there, on ground that has previously promised oil and gas.
Cas is Phase 2, arising from a stronger base resulting from a regular cash inflow that will discount the need for further fundraises and possible shareholder dilution.

red