Touchstone Exploration Share Discussion Threads

[johnoxxx] 14/1/2025 11:11

Yes, there comes the decision for TXP, if they truly think they can push for a renegotiation and even if the CB wells aren’t “quite” as lucrative will they still go with them and call their bluff so to speak in order to push the renegotiation. To try get the higher price on ortoire?

Who knows, as you say the Cas wells may still be superior and therefore they just stick with them, however if they are superior and they land a higher gas price for them as well then that really would be great.

[dunderheed] 14/1/2025 10:15

Ah ok so therefore the additional drilling will be paid from fcf from the ongoing Casca production, in which case thats fine, only the internal company capex allocation process, will be the determining factor, in well decisions. If these wells are so "sweet" it may actually be "better" and less risky to take the lower casca price profiles anyway, for the next two wells, so as to land more consistency.
They are potentially, if they live up to the hype, providing a good ROI anyway?

[johnoxxx] 14/1/2025 10:04

DH- I suppose it depends what the 10 million is for? Is it for these two wells at B pad with the first being due to spud anytime now? As obviously they are going ahead regardless, I believe people are referring to H2 when they are planning to drill 2 Cas C wells (that these would be potentially swapped for CB?) That’s what I was thinking anyway, the B pad wells are being drilled regardless and I thought that’s what the 10 million is related to and therefore they are free to chose where they drill in H2 as the loan isn’t tied to that? I may be wrong but that was the way I thought it would work!

[dunderheed] 14/1/2025 09:47

39963 yes that as well tacked on to my much longer boring 39064!!

[dunderheed] 14/1/2025 09:46

39062, john I fully support your comments above but, what I also did want to emphasise, was that the $10mm funding for Casca has been determined based upon the relative returns of these wells. It isn't simply a case of swapping this over or increasing the scope of the loan to include CB wells without quite a bit of number crunching.
I have no idea of the workover upside / further drilling returns on the CB acreage that will will have the same (or better!) risk profile and potential returns, compared to Casca (at current prices), therefore, it may be, there isn't even an opportunity available to "reallocate" such capex from both a banking and internal benchmark and perspective anyway? So to be clear it certainly isn't such a simple swap over and "f you" to the government as people may think it is?!
IMHO, dyor.

[spangle93] 14/1/2025 09:37

....although Heritage now has to cough up its 20% of costs, and thus can influence which wells are drilled.

[johnoxxx] 14/1/2025 09:21

ACT - yes Cas is at fixed price for a couple more years unless renegotiated. The thoughts behind that are as dunder said about re allocating capital to higher gas priced drills like central block. Which will give them some leverage, while Trinidad is also desperate for more gas. Pay a higher price, we drill out Cas more, simply put. Obviously there is no guarantee on this and therefore personally not counting on it. However the point that was being made was the central block acquisition and the production from there that is at LNG pricing. We don’t know the split but to have access to this is only positive and POTENTIALLY gives them leverage with ortoire contract.

[kaos3] 14/1/2025 09:12

if not posted before

[dunderheed] 14/1/2025 09:05

39059 lol, I think our BoD would struggle at asset level let alone country level at companies similar to BP, lol.
Admittedly there is / "should" be an initially better set up of (plug and play) controls and processes (plus SME's in place, depending upon corporate structure) at places like BP but, considering the mess previously crystallised here (operationally and "strategically"), it does make one wonder, whether team leaders at TXP would have lasted the length of this particular "project cycle"? All IMHO, dyor.
Edit, however hopefully we are finally finally turning this corner that seems to have been continuing for the last couple of years?!
Let's hope recent share price "strength" is based upon something tangible and we are not going to be disappointed with next RNS, as so often seems to be the case?

[redartbmud] 14/1/2025 07:57

Bp. remains out of sorts. Poor update.
they are sorely in need of a dynamic go ahead CEO.........Available for a modeat transfer fee?

red

[arlington chetwynd talbott] 13/1/2025 18:34

As I said, wishful thinking about Cascadura pricing is just not going to cut it: “over 50 percent of its forecasted petroleum and natural gas sales is expected to be derived from natural gas production governed by a fixed price contract through October 2027.”

[dunderheed] 13/1/2025 18:06

I think there is a theory "here" that they will re direct capital to CB and "force" the government to re negotiate the Casca revenue rates.
I have no idea what the upside wells profiles for CB wells or workovers are but personally wouldn't expect them to be same as Casca, so on the one hand we have capital allocated to potentially lower production @ higher price versus (for the next 2 years) higher production @ lower price?
The CB assets are only as good as their field and or (potential) satellite developments and I would have thought this more likely to influence any drilling decisions rather than a "ransom" type scenario, LOL.
But again wtfdik, all IMHO dyor!!

[arlington chetwynd talbott] 13/1/2025 17:01

Cascadura gas production is obviously not going to be sold at LNG pricing and is going to be the bulk of their gas production for some time to come. This is my point. What do they get for it currently? $2.50 per Mcf or thereabouts? Look at the Commodity price risk paragraph on page 17 of the most recent financial statements and you will see that for the foreseeable TXP are locked in to local gas pricing for the bulk of their gas production, just like I said ( “over 50 percent of its forecasted petroleum and natural gas sales is expected to be derived from natural gas production governed by a fixed price contract through October 2027”). It is your company - you should know this.

[sirmark] 13/1/2025 16:12

As mentioned ... going going gone !!! ticked up :) now 1 v 4

[sirmark] 13/1/2025 16:07

Could be the last half hour to get the cheap stock in the UK before potential news !!

Level 2 improved again now 1 v 1 so could get another tick up before the close with the next buy

[johnoxxx] 13/1/2025 15:58

You’re wrong again, quite a habit you have.

We don’t currently have the split of what will be sold “ at LNG” prices and what will be sold in the domestic market.

Don’t need to prove you wrong as you do that yourself. If it’s not your problem maybe don’t bother posting as everyone can see the inaccuracies in your posts anyway.

Good of you to try save everyone though with all your “knowledgeR21;.

[arlington chetwynd talbott] 13/1/2025 15:08

I cannot be bothered doing the maths, but the raw data is there for you in the Acquisition RNS, the 2025 Guidance RNS etc. Knock yourself out if you think you can prove me wrong. TXP is your problem, not mine.

[johnoxxx] 13/1/2025 14:49

Ah I see. So to be clear you’ve pulled che7 up on it for not having percentages.

Youve then made a comment to say TXP largely wont be getting these elevated prices so I’ve asked you what the percentages are and you cannot answer.

You couldn’t write it haha.

[arlington chetwynd talbott] 13/1/2025 14:35

Ask che7win - maybe you'll have better luck than me.

[11_percent] 13/1/2025 13:54

Thirled has multiple meanings:
To pierce or perforate: A dialectal British verb meaning to pierce or perforate
To bind or oblige: A Scottish verb meaning to bind or oblige someone to give their services or custom exclusively to one person
To enslave: A verb meaning to enslave or bind
To wear clothes into holes: A verb meaning to wear clothes into small holes
To keep or take greedily: A verb meaning to keep or take greedily to oneself, to monopolize, or “hog”
To bind with ties: A verb meaning to bind with ties of affection, sentiment, sense of duty or loyalty, force of habit, etc.
To legally bind: A historical verb meaning to legally bind a tenant to the use of one's own property as an owner
The word thirl is a variant of the earlier word thrill thrall.
Thirl Definition & Meaning - Merriam-Webster
thirled; thirling; thirls. transitive verb. dialectal British. : pierce, perforate.

Merriam-Webster
thirl - Wiktionary, the free dictionary
(historical, transitive) To legally bind (a tenant) to the use of one's own property as an owner. (by extension) To bind; to oblig...

Wiktionary
THIRL Definition & Meaning - Dictionary.com
4 days ago — verb. tr to enslave; bind.

Dictionary.com
Show all

[johnoxxx] 13/1/2025 13:33

Act - since you’ve said “TXP is mostly thirled to local pricing for foreseeable future”

Could you give the percentages to back this up? You must know them if you’re telling us all how TXP are “mostly thirled” - whatever that actually means????

[arlington chetwynd talbott] 13/1/2025 13:03

Jungmana gets a pass.

[sirmark] 13/1/2025 13:03

26-26.5p

1 v 2 currently

[sirmark] 13/1/2025 13:03

jungmana don't be too positive ... people round here don't like that lol

[jungmana] 13/1/2025 12:35

Will be over 30p soon.Oil price rising nicely