Touchstone Exploration Share Discussion Threads

[herschel k] 11/3/2021 10:26

anyone got a link to the Q&A please?

I can't find it online anywhere

[zeusfurla] 11/3/2021 10:00

On Casca Paul mentioned that testing starts this week or by the weekend. We could have test results any time from next week from the 308ft Gr7bc zone which identified 2 new areas of pay. Also worth recalling that James said in the RNS at the time -

'While those 308 feet of sand met the threshold for pay based on log data, wellsite sampling saw hydrocarbon indicators throughout the entire section which we aim to gain a better understanding of through our production testing program.'

Testing could reveal further useful information.

If Royston is a success (probable based on what we know although we can't be 100% certain), I'd support accelerating development drilling even with a 2nd rig if we can access one early. The Royston rig I'd expect to be in use for the rest of the year. We need a Royston result I think before a clear development programme is finalised. We have debt funding for this but tactically it may be a good option to broaden the share register if any other II's knock on the door and want 5%. I wouldn't be opposed to this.

We are moving to a different type of PI investor - the quick gains last year attracted some hot money. Now we have far greater certainty of outcome for our investment here with much lower downsidew risk but less catalysts which could double the share price in weeks. We are in a twilight zone of not quite big enough for trackers but too big for 'get rich quick' investors. I am comfortable in this zone and go with Warren Buffett's approach here. No reason to sell a very strong company with the prospects and high quality management that we have.

[homebrewruss] 11/3/2021 09:09

Agreed, we likely need the first well test to come through to see significant share price movement.
Nothing particularly new last night as expected.
I'm not quite clear on the order of the well tests so guess we'll just have to wait for the first result to get a clearer picture.
I'm assuming Cascadura intermediate section (lowest) first and then not sure if they will then do a pressure build test there and maybe move over to Chinook or just move straight up the hole at Cascadura to test the next section.
Doesn't really matter as long as they get started.

Spawny you might be right re delays to production, too early to say and hopefully we can make a more informed decision as and when news comes over the year. Paul did again say November/December in the directors talk interview I think. If it's a couple of months later I don't think that's a big deal plus if they get the new rig over to the island and start drilling more wells around the end of the year then the share price will probably take care of itself anyway.

[davidblack] 11/3/2021 09:09

Coho is unpicking challenges in the planning and permissions process for all future gas pipelines hence it is slow. It’s probably not a good reference for future timescales.

I am guessing they are going to focus on Cascadura coming on stream with Chinook possibly a few months later.

Also that pushing back Kraken to late 2022 suggests the drills will be busy putting in those production wells at Cascadura and Chinook.

[spawny100] 11/3/2021 08:50

As someone on other board keeps repeating we're not really going to move much here in the absence of some new numbers. Great presentation and q and a as always from Mr Baay and some tantalising hints to the future. Little disappointed the ewt not starting til next week as was under the (obviously wrong) impression that it was already underway. Lots of news to come next few weeks though. Has anyone thought through what may happen if Casc/Chinook are not online producing the wall of cash by the end of the year? I can't see it being done by then given time Coho is taking and it's a far smaller undertaking. I know Paul says they're done with raises but he's said that before. Of course it may well be academic and we'll be taken out for a multiple of today's price post Royston which is maybe more likely?

[davidblack] 11/3/2021 08:43

Not too much buying which tells you that last night was “Preaching to the already converted.”

The rest of the world will take a few weeks longer plus some IG stragglers have stymied any rise.

Feeling bullish for the medium term and who cares about the immediate micro gyrations.

[milliecusto] 11/3/2021 00:23

Tomorrow will see a definite change in sentiment to the upside, as the Penny drops, great multi bagger for this year and into next

[awise355] 11/3/2021 00:12

*worm not worn

[awise355] 11/3/2021 00:12

Institutional entitlement. His confidence is such that he can brush it all off with a shrug of the shoulders. A tinge of arrogance only means he is so busy making a success of things everyone's short termism can be ignored - and we have all hurt in the 30p drop though I suspect the worn will shortly turn to the upside!

[awise355] 11/3/2021 00:09

*drills not stills

[awise355] 11/3/2021 00:09

Tullow went from there to that?! WowI actually bought back into Tullow for the Ghana stills and POO assisting with deleveraging.Paul mentioned PRD and TLW only as reference points but nice to be in all 3.Paul's confidence shone through today discarding notions of shareholder impatience and institutional entitlement. Bravo!

[awise355] 11/3/2021 00:07

We can all dream

[spawny100] 10/3/2021 21:49

Someone somewhere in Canada is confused by barrels lol:?ExplodeTheBank (3)User Actions  March 10, 2021 - 02:16 PM44 ReadsPost# 32764290Reserve Value100 million barrels of oil in just oil reserve.. What the fuc-k are we doing here at 500 m CAD this is ridicoulous... 8 billion CAD in oil reserve alone!!!!!!!! What the f-uck!!!!!!!!!

[hiddendepths] 10/3/2021 21:05

The story is changing - in a good way as the previous path looks as attractive as ever. It's just that a better way has opened up.This really is a genuine old style investment. Just the sort of thing I sought out as an analyst. It's very easy to convince institutions if you can put your hand on your heart and tell them not to buy it for a year, or two years but as something to hold on to for the long term.I remember Tullow at 10p on its journey to £18, or Burren, which seemed to rise pretty much every day for a couple of years or.....

[mount teide] 10/3/2021 19:34

Ortoire - Paul continues to be remarkably upbeat by his standards with respect to the testing results achieved to date and, potential size of the overall prize - although, sensibly exercised caution over the shorter term, to give himself further wiggle room to negotiate the inevitable bumps that will be encountered executing an offshore size E&P project in a snake infested tropical jungle on a Caribbean Island during a global Pandemic.

His management approach hasn't changed since 2017 - and should be welcomed by those looking for a minimum 3 year O&G industry growth investment.

AIMHO/DYOR

[davidblack] 10/3/2021 19:30

TB indeed and once this crosses the $1bn Canadian mark all those tracker funds that Canadians love for their pensions will nibble away.

[thebull8] 10/3/2021 19:18

I loved the answer around institutional investors - they hate buying at market and we do not need the cash. Time for the big boys to pony up. Dividend likely end of this year/beginning of next year. Should hopefully wake up some fund managers

[zeusfurla] 10/3/2021 18:41

Paul also mentioned liquids likely to go from 2k to 5k reasonably quickly.

[bernieman] 10/3/2021 18:41

Great presentation! PB obviously excited by the extra oil potential. Testing at Casc to start this weekend. Results announced per zone. Looks like Canada already likes it :)

[davidblack] 10/3/2021 18:40

Looks like Kraken if it happens is now not the priority which suggests a gap for many more gas wells at Cascadura and Chinook in late 2021 through to late 2022.

Sounds like they are going to focus on that wall of cash?

[zeusfurla] 10/3/2021 18:35

I like the tone - Paul is listening and not over-promising. Excellent webinar. Oil test starting maybe 10 days from now, Casca gas report by zone starting at end of week/weekend so maybe even a result late next week or the following week? Great reminder of prospects but also that this is a 10 year plan with upside for several years - will build year on year. I think he feels Chinook/Royston are high probability of success from the way he spoke. But we need to stay cautious.

[thebull8] 10/3/2021 18:29

He said the reason for releasing each zone is because of eyes on the ground basically leaking information to some but not all....makes sense

[mynameiskhan] 10/3/2021 18:24

The plan is to release test result from each zone.

[mynameiskhan] 10/3/2021 18:05

PB is speaking now

[spawny100] 10/3/2021 17:38

Most here probably will be Fenton I should think.