Taylor Wimpey Share Discussion Threads

[jugears] 10/3/2020 22:04

We will see! What is strange the world is panicking about cv so I was expecting a down turn in orders understandably , but infact yesterday & today I have picked up 3 months worth of orders which has never happend before this time of year in the near 40 years I have ran our family company. Not sure why this has happend but my thoughts are either despite the virus people are more confident or companies are ensuring orders are in early in case the virus takes hold & they are unable to place orders ? My main concern is will there be the staff to pay us !

[steeplejack] 10/3/2020 20:21

Well....Jugs.....tomorrow will be entirely yours!

[martyn9] 10/3/2020 14:51

Ftse/dow heading south again.

[gbh2] 10/3/2020 10:26

Payments on mortgages to be suspended in Italy, I wonder if the interest keeps building during the period.

[steeplejack] 10/3/2020 09:52

By the by,Charles Schwab are an excellent US broker and frankly make the majority of UK brokers look lightweight.You don't pay stamp duty on equity purchases in the US of course and moreover,Charles Schwab no longer charge commission.Thus,if you want to buy an international company with an ADR,like Astra Zeneca for example,you're much better off buying through Charles Schwab presuming you don't mind having a dollar exposure.The market information and research on their website is first class.Sorry to sound like an advert!

[steeplejack] 10/3/2020 09:36

Oh well.....but CS agree with your thinking Jugears!Schwab's perspective on today's market drop.Today, trading was automatically suspended for 15 minutes when the S&P 500 Index® dropped 7%. This "circuit breaker" generally performed as intended: It reduced panic sell-off and encouraged orderly trading. The drop itself was driven by a combination of forces: the effect of COVID-19 on world economies and company earnings, anticipated interest rate reductions, and a sharp drop in oil prices. The latest market commentary from the Schwab Center for Financial Research (log in to access the article) provides additional details on the stock and bond markets as well as guidance on how to think about your investments going forward. It's important to remember that unless your financial plan or situation has changed, market fluctuations should not alter your overall investment approach.

[gbh2] 10/3/2020 09:17

I was caught out at yesterday's USA opening, I'd not realised they'd altered their clocks.

[steeplejack] 10/3/2020 09:14

The US are working very hard at dispelling analogies that this is anything like the Spanish flu of 1918.Thereagain rumours that the US government intends to roll out support to some companies hit by the virus shows that they recognise the economic consequences.The New York Times does point out that tens of thousands in the US die each year from flu.The good news is that infections in China appear to be tailing off.Remains to be seen if this mornings bounce is a dead cat.As ever,the USA will determine days close.

[martyn9] 10/3/2020 09:06

Shorters closing and hopefully some getting burnt!!

[gbh2] 10/3/2020 09:05

We have bouts of Flu every year that kill off a good few of the aged and infirm but as we have a Vaccine and an awareness of it's ability to mutate we don't have to shut down Cities nor is there much likelihood of a serious economic downturn.

The media have caused the panic buying, but if it does come to an Italian style shut down buying loo rolls will be the least of our worries.

[gbh2] 10/3/2020 08:29

Covid-19 isn't going to be a fleeting event, it's a virus and a novel one at that, to date we've not had any info on whether it's likely to mutate periodically, in much the same way as the Flu virus does.

imo We need news of a Vaccine and the likelihood of mutation before "things" start to get back to normal.

[jugears] 10/3/2020 07:58

As it stands the further they fall the more shares I get for my dividends with the volatility of the past few years this has enabled me to build a descent holding in Tw, Whilst I dont underestimate the severity CV could have on the economy you have to look long term & long term I have no doubt the economy will recover & things will be rosie again until the next crisis.
There is a real greed to make money & all that money flowing out of the markets will flow back in at some point. knowing tw as well as I do I have no doubt that tw is in a strong enough position to survive a down turn of a few years if required,that can not be said for many of the debt ridden companies on the ftse. There are to many companies ran on the brink of collapse maybe cv will clear the deadwood, it will be interesting to see how many companies blame cv as an excuse for there collapse.

[steeplejack] 09/3/2020 22:36

"Circuit breakers" were introduced in the US as a consequence of reviewing the crash of 1987.It became apparent in 1987 that if they hadn't rung the bell at 4pm local time in New York (even all those years ago) that preprogrammed instructions could see the market fall to zero.So they introduced circuit breakers or in simple language a "time out" mechanism.Charles Schwab himself would applaud JUGs approach and has stated that unless you're desperate for cash you should stick with a good quality stock investment in times of market panic.However,there are times that the sheer 'mechanics' of the market can dominate and drive the markets to heavily oversold positions.I suspect that we could potentially (with all this algorithmic induced trade)be on the cliff edge of a really severe fall in markets.Rationality could be overwhelmed by computer inspired programmes triggering a dash for cash in the USA.

[clarky5150] 09/3/2020 21:07

Just in from a long days work and catching up on posts. May I say the posting on this thread today has been outstanding. A real pleasure and a departure from the usual ramp/deramp infested threads. Bizarre how a day of such turmoil has spurred on the sensible and knowledgeable instead of the keyboard warriors.
Keep up the good work!

[gbh2] 09/3/2020 20:53

We're on the same page Doc, in fact I've this evening shifted yet more cash cash into my trading account and also maxed out my Dealing ISA, Wednesday/Thursday will either end in smiles or frowns, no pain no gain ;))

[dr_smith] 09/3/2020 19:34

Thank-you for your feedback Alangriffinbang and Spcecks.

[spcecks] 09/3/2020 18:43

I'm also not to concerned I'm just happy with the good dividend and will drip feed in any extra money I have.

[alangriffbang] 09/3/2020 18:42

Thank you very much for your posts I feel the same way as you do , DR SMITH ,I don’t need the money so will sit on my hands and wait ,please keep posting and keep us all sane ,

[dr_smith] 09/3/2020 18:06

Well you've presumably read about that in US earlier today.
My memory is rusty, but wasn't there a safety mechanism introduced after algorithms went crazy - or was that US?
I'd say yes they can, then your next question is, "Is it likely".
Given all that is happening and comparison to like black days in past, answer has to be now is as likely a time as any, but only for window whilst anomaly rectified, as it has to be a politcal no no to say a market ain't working right.
IMO
Dave the Zombie ;-)

[gbh2] 09/3/2020 17:40

My main concern is whether there's a point on the FTSE at which they might shut down the stock exchange, other than that it's just a case of either playing the dips or becoming a zombie holder.

[dr_smith] 09/3/2020 17:30

Am I a lamb to the slaughter, I ask myself.
I am for most part a long term investor, so tend to ride short term bumps as re-entry timing could be difficult.
I am quite calm about today, but at same time asking myself if I have missed something.
The issues seems to be:
1) CV causing problems for tourism and overseas supplies.
2) Oil price diving
3) Commentators fearing warning signs of world recession.

The first 2 are verifiable facts, the third, well, this fear has been expressed so frequently, it is only something that can be recognised in hindsight.

Turning to focus on housebuilders, do any of the above affect them?
Maybe a hinderance for supplies/fittings, but nothing to stop ongoing developments.
Anything significant would mean an rns and we haven't had that.

So housebuilders will have turnover similar, same earnings (maybe slight margin pressure for alternative supplier), same div, same ROCE.

If folks are discouraged from overseas holidays they may save money and use it for house purchase.

Could reduction in share price be a valid correction following the increases since the election?
Looking at my records from 5 years ago, TW were on a PE of 11.9, now 9.7, so ..if randomly selected 5 years ago is fair for macro-economics view, then being overpriced now does not stack up.

I try to take realistic rather than rose-tinted view, but struggling to see anything to concern a LTH. If you want to trade and buy/sell short term, that's a completely different sphere, and the only logical explanation I can think of for decimation to HB sp's.

My HB heavy folio is way down today but I'm remarkably calm.
I hope I'm not deluded, only time will tell.
All IMO.
Dave

[jugears] 09/3/2020 15:29

WFL1970 Why has it worked against me £3 will come & when it does I will have purchased additional shares, WIn Win The share price falling really doesn't worry me , but you do have to laugh at the panic sellers must be loads that have lost money, more fool them !