Taylor Wimpey Share Discussion Threads

[ftir11] 19/10/2018 23:38

Jug,

With your 35 years experience, you should know full well, that where ever London and the South East goes, the rest of the country will follow.

There's a storm coming to property markets, I suggest everyone takes cover.

Markets are currently warning of the problems that are coming!

[jugears] 19/10/2018 23:14

Ftir, London & the south again, no mention of the rest of the country but that doesn't matter for some strange reason the rest of the country has to be tarred with the same brush,yet prices in London & the south have been inflated for far to long the writing there has been on the wall for years. I am very surprised it is only just started to happen but what will be will be, if & when it spreads to the rest of the country I may start to worry but at the moment I see a lack of houses for sale, take the village I live in , it is one of the largest in the country there have always been about 50- 70 houses for sale at anyone time, in the last few years this has been barely 15-20, down to 8 at the moment, my brother in law put his house on the market & sold his house for the full asking price within a couple of days, 4 people made an offer in the first week. that was a month ago.It is not all doom & gloom houses are still selling, what annoys me about these figures it that it doesn't specify the numbers of new houses still being sold this is just a collective figure so of course the numbers will be down if older houses are not coming to the market & my research shows there is a big decline in older house for sale could this be due to the lack of new houses on the market, I will let you do your own research, no doubt you will enlighten me ?

[ftir11] 19/10/2018 22:48

Jug,

Lol, get real, we've seen the top of the market months ago.

It's like the blind leading the blind on here.

[jugears] 19/10/2018 22:05

you say near the top, but when Will that top be, it could be next week,next month or next year it may be 10 years away no body actually knows, just like brexit know one actually knows what is going to happen its all assumption at the moment, If i ran my company like that I would have been bankrupt years ago. Every little thing seems to spook the markets & nearly always they get it wrong, The gulf war- my business carried on as normal,9/11, the financial crisis , voting to leave the EU, -My business carried on as normal, They knocked TW. down to nearly £1 & it had F@uck all effect on TW's turnover that year or any year since !

[essentialinvestor] 19/10/2018 21:57

If you are going to paraphrase Buffett, you might want to look
at what his business partner, Charlie Mungar, says about cyclicals...you don't buy them on low PE's.

Cyclicals always look cheap on an earnings basis near the top of any cycle.

IAG sells on a PE of only 4-5 X. Why?, Because they sure as hell won't make £3 billion a year on pre tax when the next recession hits.

[sundial1] 19/10/2018 21:42

Jugears-Thank's for your comment.

[jugears] 19/10/2018 21:09

Sundial1, no one can argue that Warren Buffet has a winning formula buy when others are selling. Tw must have a Pe ratio of approx 8 now & a 12% dividend, I will let you do the maths & decide when we are at the bottom ? If you are looking to invest anything below £1.64 is an absolute bargain,If you think they are going to a pound wait. However I have not heard £1 mentioned anywhere else other than this bulletin board I am not even sure where £1 came from .IMHO for now we could be at the bottom & doubt if todays decline was anything other than Brexit & School Holiday Related, Other than London & the south I have not heard any mention of house prices falling or a decline in new house sales, There are thousands of people waiting to move or buy far out stripping supply) there first house & they won't wait forever, you either take advantage of very low interest rates & higher house prices or wait for house prices to come down & pay a higher rate of interest.Out of all the house builders I would say that TW & BDEV have the best spread of developments throughout the uk than a lot of the other builders & would definitely not want to be in say BKG or Crest Nicholson at the moment. But long term you will be ok with any house builder, House prices may fall short term but once they find a level that people are willing to buy at they will go back up higher than they are now that's the cycle. Buy shares for the long term & unless you are really clever stay away from day trading or trying to predict the markets, I have mates that invest a grand & tell me they have made £60 one day & then made a loss the next because they are impatient & at the end of the year they are no better off ! My little lump sum invested in Tw 9 years ago has made me on average £30 a day every day for the last 9 years & that includes all the times they have been up & back down again it may not be much to a successful day trader but I am more than happy. I have been on here from the start & heard every scare story you could imagine, All turned out to be very very over exaggerated.If you look you will see that nearly every sector is down 25% not just house builders & In my opinion a lot of those sectors were very over valued & had long reached there peak the same can not be said for house builders/banks to me these have a long way to go till they peak & may yet have substantial upside.But don't take my advise as I know nothing other than I left school @ 16 became self employed & took over the near Bankrupt family Business, worked 24/7 for ten years to pay every single penny of our debts back & increased profits & turnover every year bar one since I took control 37 years ago & although my business has been very succesfull I now make more money on the stock market, I have also never taken advise from my stock broker or taken tips from so called experts, investment magazines & newspapers. I do a lot of my own research, not just the company background but the people at the top that run it. if i do not like what I see I do not invest. Tw is probably the largest investment I have in any one company & there is a very good reason for that !

[sundial1] 19/10/2018 20:11

The thing is to be greedy ,When people are fearful.

[sundial1] 19/10/2018 19:23

what price will it bottom out ,Taking in account cash and land bank.

[wfl1970] 19/10/2018 18:00

marksp
"53 posts no content
Grow up people"

Actually today's posts have indicated one thing... When everyone is thinking the same (bullish) ... It's definitely time to get out!

Same thing happened before the financial crisis.


I remain impartial - however, ftir is calling this right so far and there's no getting away from that.

[essentialinvestor] 19/10/2018 17:55

Yf, the more standard declines are what we are looking at I reckon.
TW entered the last downturn highly indebted, from memory,
so were hit particularly hard.

[yf23_1] 19/10/2018 17:46

TW EPS in the 3 yrs of the last collapse...

50p
30p
-9.4p

Things can turn quickly and if people hold off buying, housebuilders have overheads.
Other previous collapses indicate a 50% retrace from top to bottom.

[essentialinvestor] 19/10/2018 17:43

Best guess is there will be one more decent tradable bounce in this cycle.
Jan-March often the stronger months for sector SP's.

[marksp2011] 19/10/2018 17:43

53 posts no content
Grow up people

[ftir11] 19/10/2018 17:20

Jug,

Of course they'll be a bounce at some point, but it will only be temporary.

TW. is going much much lower.

Any proper recovery will be years away.

[ftir11] 19/10/2018 16:39

Over 5 million shares unwound at £151.40 at 4:36pm

Ouch!

[disneydonald] 19/10/2018 16:33

Well, does seem that Jeff Fairburn’s inept handling of the BBC interview has kicked this off today. It’s likely to be all over the news tonight and is currently trending on social media. Risk is politicians will feel the need to dive in and do the populist thing, without caring about the collateral damage to housing market confidence. Hopefully Hammond won’t feel the need to collapse HTB in the budget, otherwise the share price will respond negatively. I would guess that Fairburn will become a figure of hate over the next few days, bit like Fred the Shred did.

[jugears] 19/10/2018 16:33

Ftir. I hope you bought some today, don't leave it to long I sense a rise coming sooner rather than later this will turn maybe as soon as next week

[ftir11] 19/10/2018 15:57

Lol,

You think what you want, if it makes you feel better.

[omg48] 19/10/2018 15:55

A lot of us on this thread have made a lot of money out of builders. I sense the green eyed monster?

[gbh2] 19/10/2018 15:53

Lovely day up here on the Moors, another half hour to walk off lunch them home for a cuppa, some folk need to get out more :))

[ftir11] 19/10/2018 15:51

YAWN...................

At least I'm not invested in any builders.

[omg48] 19/10/2018 15:50

Whats the 11.
Your IQ