Taylor Wimpey Share Discussion Threads

[fenners66] 05/10/2018 08:59

double post

[fenners66] 05/10/2018 08:55

And here we are on a finance site where we discuss the impact on share prices of published accounts , wondering what might be the effect of leaving a club which has a € 100 Bn budget , but has not published an audited set of accounts for a generation .....


You don't suppose they have something to hide do you ?
Maybe they cannot be trusted......

[patdavey] 04/10/2018 21:20

Ex-Div day today accounts for much of the drop in share price. What a return over this year!

[jugears] 04/10/2018 18:08

What a depressed bunch on here today,The housing market is cylical, So F---ing What ?Every house in every area that I have bought or sold is worth a lot more now than when I sold it & the same will be for the future, Looking around at current share prices I would say that just about every worse case scenario has been built in to prices at the moment,any depression will be no longer than normal, House prices will recover as they always do & so will Tw share price ,that's what happens its just a fact of life, If you don't sell you don't loose. Tw own a very good forward land bank & I have no doubt that they will be able to ride out any storm & still come out better on the other side more than can be said for a very substantial amount of other companies in the FT 100 !!!

[stewart64] 04/10/2018 17:13

The explanation apparently lies in generational gaps and the time it takes to forget. Whatever the reason it has been a reliable indicator in the past century. Particularly the last two cycles ....peak July 1989 and peak July 2007...you could have set your alarm clock by it. Precisely why I sold to rent in 2006...I was part of a forum that thought it was coming.

I am definitely no expert on shares but that decision was probably my best call especially as the house I bought in 2016 is still stuck at 2007 prices (and apparently now going to correct even as it has been stuck pricewise for the last 12 years or so)...
Peak District.



Published study...Boom Bust....Fred Harrison who predicted the 2008 crash based on the 18 year housing cycle. 2026?

Ok historical cycles can change, maybe Brexit who knows.

[ftir11] 04/10/2018 17:13

You've all been warned.

Ignore well intended advice at your peril.

The market is a FORWARD INDICATOR and the ignorance here is frightening.

You'll all understand when it's too late.

[marksp2011] 04/10/2018 17:06

Stewart64

Why 18 years?
What is the underlying process that creates an 18 year cycle?
is that an 18 year interval between the starts, mid points or ends of the individual cycles?

ta

[stewart64] 04/10/2018 17:02

Baracuda2..no expert just referring to history. We had a house price crash in 1974, 1990 and 2008...now fill in the gaps for this ten year cycle please.

[marksp2011] 04/10/2018 16:56

JUST LOOK AT THE SHARE CHART.

Remember, it's a forward indicator.


Actually its a lagging indicator but dont let facts get in the way

In fact, it is a completely adaptive model - forecasts made on past values of the same variable and so cannot forecast a turning point

Didn't they teach you anything at school?

[baracuda2] 04/10/2018 16:54

See we have another expert posting here!

[stewart64] 04/10/2018 16:41

Where are you from ftir11...Cambridge, Islington? Because you are forecasting a housing correction when we haven't really had any increases north of Nottingham...barely above 2007 levels in spite of nearly 40% inflation. You are also predicting a change in the 18 year housing cycle for the first time since the second world war..ie. 8 years early.

[ftir11] 04/10/2018 15:05

JUGEARS

Unfortunately, that simply doesn't change anything, as what you've just said is always the case in the early phase of a UK housing correction.

JUST LOOK AT THE SHARE CHART.

Remember, it's a forward indicator.

[jugears] 04/10/2018 15:01

Ftir, I think you will find a lot of people who invested in property in the south & London are now investing further north, Hence IMO house prices in this area will actually increase, Lets face it property in London & the south have been over valued by about 50% for a very long time & the bubble there was always going to burst big time at some point, I supply to the housing industry & whilst orders for sites south of Watford have declined slightly, Sites north of there have increased orders in the last few months by about 30% & well up on last year so how do you explain that ?

[shaker44] 04/10/2018 15:00

I agree. Naff all to do with much vaunted housing shortage! If houses are unaffordable, builders will build and sell fewer and make less profit. Not rocket science is it?!

[jugears] 04/10/2018 14:25

ftir11, Please check your facts RBS are reducing lending to construction There is no mention of house builder.

[tlobs2] 04/10/2018 14:12

LOL who is the new investment guru ftir11 ?


His claims appear to be those of a deluded shorter rather than those of a sober long term investor.

He appears to have no idea about the financial stability of TW, or the companies future dividend strategy. Oh and don't start the clown up about house buyers in a market where we are millions of houses short of what are needed ........ DOH!

[marksp2011] 04/10/2018 13:31

I have no TW at the moment i sold out before the special.got burned like that last year :)
but I will do again.

TW have done some decent stress testing and are announcing their payments 15 months in advance. I am reasonably confident that they will weather a downturn in good shape

Why no TW? I have put most of my ££ in global trusts until I see what Brexit looks like

6% UK exposure I can cope with.......

[stewart64] 04/10/2018 11:29

The low share price imo. is predicated on a misunderstanding of the housing cycle ( as previously mentioned a shortened cycle that has never existed in economic history) maybe fuelled by a few hotspots and investors experience in London and the South East and using a 10p 2008 point of reference share price which was due to a crazy debt facilitated merger. In normal times it has tended to trade around 300p with a top of 700p in 2007.

So you get a company meeting profit targets and strengthening its balance sheet having a too good to be true covered 11% dividend.

Fair enough it Could be Different this time...

[disneydonald] 04/10/2018 11:09

I think we all have known that sentiment has been poor for the builders this year, however the question is “is it over done”. Builders are in much better shape than previously; generally carry little or no debt, build to order rather than than build and hope to sell, minimise exposure to land via more use of options. Is it just the siren voices and lazy research from the industry pundits who just repeat previous scenarios? I suspect so, and believe that it’s a decent trade if you can hold through the inevitable volatility which comes with Brexit. If Brexit is resolved with a reasonable outcome, I suspect builders will recover pretty smartly 15/20 %. Of course IMHO.

[ftir11] 04/10/2018 10:52

You are missing the point.

The future for UK housing is negative, borrowings or not.

Try looking at the share chart, the decline doesn't stop at 165p.

FOOL.

[marksp2011] 04/10/2018 10:49

Especially the ones with no bank borrowings

Fool

[ftir11] 04/10/2018 10:43

RBS reduces lending to house builders.


The banks can see whats coming!


SELL