Taylor Wimpey Share Discussion Threads

[stewart64] 04/10/2018 09:35

The housing cycle has never been 10 to 12 years outside of world wars. It has followed the Harrisonian approx.18 year cycle..eg the only busts recently have been 1974, 1990 and 2008. Also cycles identified going back to Victorian times.
In the meantime we are back to an 11% yield (18.3p) covered by the forward earnings per share of 19-20p or 8 times price to earnings.
Those who think we are going to get a House Price Crash are betting ''THIS TIME IS DIFFERENT'' in spite of the fact that house prices are 20% to 50% off 2007 peak from the Midlands north once you factor inflation.

The housing cycle being a decade long has no substance. Where is the evidence....I have given the bust dates since world war two. ...sure there were economic recessions mid cycle but not housing recessions.

[terminated] 03/10/2018 13:27

No one can doubt that house building is many years from meeting demand but the markets are focused on the 10-12 year correction cycle. Although we are into year 10 since 2008 we have not really had a normal growth spell. Wages haven't risen and interest rates have been kept deliberatly low, so I'm not sure that cycle will hold true this time around. Inflation however is set to rise and with wages not growing that's a dangerous situation.

[gbh2] 02/10/2018 10:48

Don't doubt you for a minute Jugears, I was down South over the weekend helping a Builder friend with his computer and his staff are up to their neck in New House snagging work, he's taking on extra staff every other week to keep up with his workload.

However I don't think that means much to the guys that make money out of money, they're willing break the back of any company if it means more in their pockets at the end of the financial year.

[jugears] 02/10/2018 09:36

gbh2, hardly a big dividend worth about 2p of share value, certainly not worth buying into Tw. for that. Market sentiment is not good in any sector at the moment as far as investing is concerned, that said I now have the fullest order book I have ever had & can not take on any more work until March/April next year a position I have never found my self in before.

[gbh2] 02/10/2018 09:10

Hard to believe we're on the cusp of an ex dividend date, my guess is some of the money boys are betting on the share price to crash after!

[martyn9] 01/10/2018 11:44

I own a holiday apartment in spain and are subject to non resident tax, this should be applicable in the uk also.Would at least put some more funds in the pot for the gov to squander!!

[disneydonald] 01/10/2018 10:38

Well, it’s is likely to be seen as another knock in confidence for the builders exposed to Central London Market. Although personally I think the market will shrug it off. BoE figures for mortgage approvals steady / good, I suggest these have more credibility with respect to what is actually happening re sales.

[marksp2011] 01/10/2018 10:36

Foreign buyers = people not paying UK tax
Not about nationality - bit of a damp squib as all you need to do is create a company or LLP and off you go !

Soundbite for the Daily Mail and the EDL

[baracuda2] 01/10/2018 10:21

I heard that, can't believe that provoked the price movement today, how ridiculous!

[armourer] 01/10/2018 09:46

May opened her mouth about taxing foreign buyers!

[baracuda2] 01/10/2018 09:39

Why the drop today, all builders are down?

[m4rtinu] 30/9/2018 20:48

Also, from Midas in the Chip Wrapper:

"Multifamily Housing Reit intends to float on the stock market in the next couple of weeks, raising £175-250m at a price of 100p per share. The group's business is buying and managing blocks of flats with exiting tenants in and around Bristol, Birmingham, Leeds, Manchester and Norwich, with an average rent of £600 a month, ideally suited to teachers, nurses, office and factory workers. It provides decent, well-priced rental homes to people who desperately need them.

Management are targeting a 4% dividend yield in year one, rising to at least 5% thereafter, also hoping to deliver a steady increase in the share price, creating a total return of 10% or more per year."

Personally, I think the rents are more than a bit steep if they are targeting public sector workers.

[m4rtinu] 30/9/2018 20:41

Extract from the article linked to below (Lloyd's business confidence survey):

"Firms in the construction sector were the most confident in September, up five points to 41%, followed by consumer services at 33%."

[1carus] 25/9/2018 18:24

gbh2 --- agree... looked at them for my mum. Complete con.

[gbh2] 25/9/2018 10:16

I'm surprised they manage sell anything after seeing their Apartment prices and more significantly the attached maintenance costs and selling restrictions!

[m4rtinu] 25/9/2018 09:59

"Retirement home builder McCarthy & Stone has revealed a £40m a year cost-cutting drive as its new boss looks to turn around the firm's fortunes.

Interim boss John Tonkiss has become chief executive and said he hopes to make the savings by 2021 by cutting building costs.

Tonkiss said: "We aim to leverage our longer-term strategic opportunity to increase our customer appeal, diversify our revenue streams and reduce our exposure to the market cyclicality." "

From BBC

[gbh2] 25/9/2018 08:23

More life in a Tramps vest than there is in this share price ;)

[gbh2] 22/9/2018 07:43

I too think there's trouble ahead (next 50 years) but my bet is that it'll be between the rich and the rest rather before a rerun of the Holy Wars.

[ken tennis] 21/9/2018 16:51

Seems like the meetng in Austria wasn't very pleasant going by the drop in the share price of housing stock and the fall in the £ after MRS May was told her plan isn't acceptable. No deal Brexit is looming up fast.

Good W/E all

[gbh2] 21/9/2018 15:12

Not much rewarding about today's share price ;)

[m4rtinu] 21/9/2018 09:24

F2 - well it seems you have clearly made your mind up. No point in trying to persuade you otherwise.

Anyway, another small movement in the right direction for TW.

[gbh2] 21/9/2018 08:50

Think and Say whatever you wish but don't be daft enough to put it in print and publish it.