Taylor Wimpey Share Discussion Threads

[raffles the gentleman thug] 16/9/2016 16:56

cc2014 ... my thoughts exactly - there has been a massive repricing of bonds, with ten year treasuries lifting around 25bp, which is more or less equivalent of a rate rise. And whats disturbing is that this has happened against the backdrop of sluggish economic data, a Fed backtracking and no real change to inflation. Thats what has whacked global equities and in particular whacked popular names and high yielding shares in the states. For me thats what TW has been about at the moment, its weakness symptomatic of an elevated risk premium than anything to do with fundamentals.

Where we are at now is well over a quarter of the world's negative yielding sovereign debt has moved to positive yields, and the problem is getting worked thru remarkably well. I therefore expect this bout of equity weakness to be relatively short lived.

Re TW it does absolutely appear that someone is dumping a significant volume of the shares, but the great news is that big volumes are getting worked thru really quite well. Selling doesn't go on forever and the yield is now approaching 9.5% so I am happy

[cc2014] 16/9/2016 16:44

Something odd going on today with options expiry and the affect on volume on the market.

35m traded as I write this and I expect late reported trades will lift this higher.

My sense of today and yesterday is that one or two parties are dumping huge volumes of shares on a large amount of stocks and that the trades are so obvious everyone can see them and thus no-one has to lift the price as the sellers just keep going regardless.

I would suggest that this volume of selling can't continue and as soon as it ceases the whole market is going to rally. For those that understand these things better I think it might be something to do with bond yields suddenly improving, thus equities look less attractive.

Any thoughts?

[cc2014] 16/9/2016 16:44

Something odd going on today with options expiry and the affect on volume on the market.

35m traded as I write this and I expect late reported trades will lift this higher.

My sense of today and yesterday is that one or two parties are dumping huge volumes of shares on a large amount of stocks and that the trades are so obvious everyone can see them and thus no-one has to lift the price as the sellers just keep going regardless.

I would suggest that this volume of selling can't continue and as soon as it ceases the whole market is going to rally. For those that understand these things better I think it might be something to do with bond yields suddenly improving, thus equities look less attractive.

Any thoughts?

[raffles the gentleman thug] 16/9/2016 16:15

Seldom have I eeen a bigger order imbalance than in TW today - 20m buy volume and under 5m sell

[arja] 16/9/2016 10:01

TW and builders still struggling but hopefully near the end of short term downtrend

[gbh2] 16/9/2016 09:30

Good luck with that idea, I don't mind a discussion, I even welcome the odd disagreement but I simply cannot be bothered with seeing the same message over and over again.

Once Filtered they're gone forever from my screen.

[omg48] 16/9/2016 09:26

I was going to filter him but need the entertainment in shooting him down :)

[gbh2] 16/9/2016 09:20

Thought that around his/her's second post which is why I used the Filter.

[arja] 15/9/2016 20:40

TW slow to join the slight recovery today - other builders better of late

[ianood] 15/9/2016 19:53

I think you'll find that was widely cross party!

[arja] 15/9/2016 14:57

yes, Most Tory MPs are elitists and not interested in the plebs and are mean spirited with ZERO compassion . Actually , they are the biggest benefit scroungers as shown by the expenses scandal .

[gbh2] 15/9/2016 13:43

I could be wrong but my current impression is that May isn't too bothered about Tory dogma.

[m4rtinu] 15/9/2016 13:28

Term - I agree, with your comment re usual Tory dogma (anti building council houses) but see the article I posted yesterday which may suggest otherwise. No 665.

[raffles the gentleman thug] 15/9/2016 12:32

Looks like a majority of BoE want another rate cut for November to 0.1%, which in theory can only support housing demand

[terminated] 15/9/2016 12:14

"The previous administration's hope that strong demand for homes would stimulate larger housebuilding companies to increase annual output from the current 140,000 to at least 200,000 has fallen on stony ground."

Honestly how naive/stupid government ministers are. The house builders will always make just enough to ensure profits are maximised, they don't want to meet demand because that will mean housing prices will decline in the future. Whatever incentives they offer the builders will home in on it to maximise that market and put other builds temporarily on the shelf. The only plausible way the government can ensure more houses are built is to start building them themselves, but we all know Conservatives are always against this kind of initiative.

[raffles the gentleman thug] 15/9/2016 12:01

Nice thought jugears ... unfortunately my investments are being anything other than successful at present ... and I certainly wasn't as well prepared as I should have been for the TW sell off, thats for sure. And my strategy at the moment is a lonely one of doubling down until things come right !! ... which I am hopeful they will when risk premium subsides a little from elevated levels

[jugears] 15/9/2016 11:45

Every one has there own theories on how to play the stock market, gbh2/Raffles we all seem to have been successful with a lot of years behind us perhaps we should join together & start a little sindicate.

[raffles the gentleman thug] 15/9/2016 11:15

Yep its difficult to know what they are thinking of m4 ... but the centrepiece of any strategy has to be building because it can deliver short term economic support over Brexit which increased infrastructure investment can't necessarily do.

Concept of encouraging institutional investors into private rental sector sounds all well and good, but I would have thought the returns would be pretty modest relative to risk, especially if inflation remains subdued.

[m4rtinu] 15/9/2016 10:37

Yes, raf. I'm hoping the Autumn statement gives a boost to building and construction. What about private finance to build and manage council houses?

[arja] 15/9/2016 10:23

gary - good call by you to get in today as TW recovering well after a weak start . Too soon to say it has turned around but let's hope so !

[raffles the gentleman thug] 15/9/2016 10:17

I do believe you are right gbh2 ... the relative health of the sector is vital to the performance of the economy with a huge amount of labour employed throughout the building chain. And the indications would appear to be that the Government is only going to further support building activity.

[gbh2] 15/9/2016 10:06

rrtgt, I rarely attempt to convince people of which way any company's share price might go, with that in mind I am banking on the idea that only a suicidal government would ignore this sector and on that basis alone, I feel my investment in this and CRST are relatively safe.

That said I've banked a good profit from both during the course of this year or so and (with the exception of LLOYs) my holdings are modest and spread across many interests.