Taylor Wimpey Share Discussion Threads

[raffles the gentleman thug] 08/9/2016 08:45

'Viewings of homes in London’s wealthiest areas have shot up almost 50 per cent since the EU referendum as buyers hunt for Brexit bargains in exclusive districts. Price falls in areas such as Chelsea and Knightsbridge have combined with the post-referendum drop in sterling to draw buyers back into the market, figures from estate agents Knight Frank show. – Financial Times

[raffles the gentleman thug] 08/9/2016 08:43

RICS for the first time since April say its members expect house prices to rise over the next 3 months and forecast an 11% increase over next year.

[raffles the gentleman thug] 08/9/2016 08:41

What beats me on this stock is how everyone consistently getting the dividend yield wrong. Motley Fools for instance saying it has a market beating 7% yield - sorry but at this price that was the yield they paid this year - next year its 8.6% on a 13.8p dividend

[tlobs2] 08/9/2016 08:36

This one is in my "for dividends" long term pile.


Still I'd like to see the price drifting up to a more realistic price.


+12-15% post autumn statement anybody?

[gbh2] 08/9/2016 07:44

RICS House Price Balance Actual 12% Forecast 5% Previous figure 5%

[tlobs2] 08/9/2016 07:05

Arja,

They managed to put a negative spin on ...........

"House prices dropped 0.2 percent in August after a 1.1 percent decline in July, causing the annual rate of growth to slow to 6.9 percent from 8.4 percent in July, according to the figures from Halifax, part of Lloyds Banking Group."

Not like the doom mongers to ignore the fact that annual growth was still 6.9 percent. I'd take that year on year !

[arja] 07/9/2016 14:27

falls today surely overdons as hkuse prices declined less than expected in August after the bigger decline in July .

[raffles the gentleman thug] 07/9/2016 13:56

The point on Stamp is that it is killing London development, with project after project being deferred because of it - and thats only 6 months after the changes.

If one wants affordable housing in London, and to try to attempt to meet the 50,000 new homes a year required by that city for the next couple of decades, then you have to encourage builders to build., At the moment Stamp is not encouraging them to build, which is why there will be something like a 20,000 to 25,000 shortfall in supply.

The Government can ignore it at their peril, but the supply demand imbalance will only end in tears, but squeezing up rents and prices of modest family homes, and pushing ever more key workers out of the City,

[terminated] 07/9/2016 13:31

I doubt the government will lower stamp duty as it will just help fuel the housing bubble crises (yet to happen). What they are hopefully focused on is new developments to ease the bubble and make housing more affordable. They have been speaking of reducing planning permission and making it easier to build on new brown and greenfield sites, which at the end of the day is what we need.

I wonder when Teresa May promised citizenship to all EU citizens living here (conditional on ours being accepted) did she mean from now, up until article 50 is initiated or until we actually leave. If it's the latter i can see a mass scramble in the next few years as EU citizens scurry to get across before the door it closed. Can only be good for house builders.

[raffles the gentleman thug] 07/9/2016 13:26

No announcement yet - in final consultation phase, but local council starting tender process as I understand it. Only reason I post is because this one project has potential to account for as much as 10% of entire quoted sector capacity - so the market for new home building does appear to be sound

[arja] 07/9/2016 13:23

tlobs2- fair enough but are there not more dynamic building stocks than TW for capital
growth . I must check the 1 year charts to see which one seems to be increasing in value the most in percentage terms - I suspect it moght be BWY .
raffles - is the basingstoke development a TW project?? ( I lived in that area for a few years before returning to OZ ) .

[raffles the gentleman thug] 07/9/2016 13:11

Huge house building program about to get go-ahead in Manydown, Basingstoke, with 3,500 new homes potentially rising to 8,000 - home building appears in good health

[tlobs2] 07/9/2016 12:38

I'm investing for future long term dividends arja so good luck with your CFD.

[arja] 07/9/2016 12:33

raffles - not sweating as my remaining holding with a CFD in TW is quite small . But the steep falls in building stocks today is surprising although maybe some other news is affecting them . Tempted to buy a more volatile building stock today at some point for a day trade as am out tomorrow to view some houses . Will just have to trust the intra day charts for my entry point !

[tlobs2] 07/9/2016 12:16

I have taken the carrot dangled in front of me and bought a few more :-)

[raffles the gentleman thug] 07/9/2016 11:24

stop sweating arja TW merely trading back to its 21 day moving average and pinged straight back up. Market just letting off a bit of steam and strange moves all over the show. BDEV was actually about 1% higher than expectations, but frankly that was always going to be the case as home builders are one of the easier set of companies to model.

Important thing is the demand is rock solid both in BDEV and all over the country outside of Central London. BoE has cut rates, but more importantly eased capital requirements, freeing up around £150n in incremental lending capacity in the UK, so once we get past the slow summer months more positive news should lie ahead.

And I am still firmly of the opinion that Stamp Duty will be eased, since it is the cheapest and most effective stimulus for the London economy for Hammond to deliver and demonstrate the UK is open for business post Brexit. Nobody is winning from 12% to 15% levels of Stamp Duty, not least the Government or Londoners who will start to see severe supply constraints unless the matrket is freed up.

[arja] 07/9/2016 11:01

seems that TW andBDEV have a similar p/e ratio . But building stocks taking a pounding today although BDEV results were surely not worse than expected ! Hope TW can hold the 160 level but looking problematic .

[deadly] 07/9/2016 10:44

As everyone knows, yield isn't everything or junk bonds wouldn't be "junk".
The total return is key, and TW. is probably seen as much riskier at such a high yield and because of past performance.

[raffles the gentleman thug] 07/9/2016 10:36

well in a market clearly not convinced an 8.6% yield in TW, or a 7.4% yield on BKG is commensurate reward for the risk of investing in such an cyclical sector, then I am afraid a 6% yield over at BDEV does indeed look pretty pedestrian

[deadly] 07/9/2016 10:27

BDEV on a "pedestrian" yield of 6%!
But with a better cover than TW.

If only all yields were so pedestrian.....

[raffles the gentleman thug] 07/9/2016 09:22

Thats why its the best thing to own in the sector - outstandingly the most progressive div policy, in contrast to pedestrian yields elsewhere in sector like BDEV - and a share you have to but on days like today rather than doing what most do and buy it when its ripping higher !

[arja] 07/9/2016 09:19

thanks Raffles . I did and now I see what you mean.

[raffles the gentleman thug] 07/9/2016 09:05

Read my post 17543 of yesterday

[arja] 07/9/2016 08:52

puzzled by something raffles . I looked at financial heading on ADVFN and it shows dividend yield at 1.03% albeit 9 times covered by earnings . Is this incorrect ?

[raffles the gentleman thug] 07/9/2016 08:45

Sector performance today is just noise really arja and nothing to worry about. All these shares are gonna breakout, and the 8.6% yield on TW is just too great to ignore, esp as it looks sustainable for a reasonable period of time. Hard to find better value place to invest