Taylor Wimpey Share Discussion Threads

[arja] 07/9/2016 08:52

puzzled by something raffles . I looked at financial heading on ADVFN and it shows dividend yield at 1.03% albeit 9 times covered by earnings . Is this incorrect ?

[raffles the gentleman thug] 07/9/2016 08:45

Sector performance today is just noise really arja and nothing to worry about. All these shares are gonna breakout, and the 8.6% yield on TW is just too great to ignore, esp as it looks sustainable for a reasonable period of time. Hard to find better value place to invest

[arja] 07/9/2016 08:41

o/t, AHT is the one to watch and a real NOR situation .

[arja] 07/9/2016 08:40

thanks for your thoughts Raffles and BDEV has now affected most of the building stocks . I will keep my TW a bit longer in hope that it will resume the uptrend soon .Even the FTSE is again down today and ignoring dow futures .

[raffles the gentleman thug] 07/9/2016 08:26

From what I can see BDEV was just completely in line with expectations, nothing more really to get excited about, other than for the fact that net private reservations now running higher in this financial year than last year - confirmation zero negative Brexit effect.

Still think TW the one to own on valuation, growth and fact that it has a more generous and better defined dividend policy, as reflected in the much higher yield than BDEV. Also TW has interesting London development exposure which I think is where you want to be if Stamp is changed

[arja] 07/9/2016 08:17

expect the unexpected in markets and BDEV is an example of this .tempting at 505 level after the pullback !

[raffles the gentleman thug] 07/9/2016 07:58

It is indeed doing well, but literally every participant in this market recognises the need for stamp duty reform. Even John Tutte, Redrow CEO yesterday said he "completely agreed" with Berkeley's comments and that stamp duty hikes had "devastated" the higher end of the housing market, warning it would have "a ripple effect, if you don’t get new sites, you also don’t get any social new housing,"

[tlobs2] 07/9/2016 07:47

And today its Barratt Developments PLC who are reporting very good results and no issues post Brexit...........

Who would have thought it, the building sector is seemingly doing well according to recent statements and that's before Mrs May gets a few home building initiatives in place in her Autumn Statement.

[raffles the gentleman thug] 06/9/2016 15:59

Contrary to popular belief of conspiracy theorists that sort of behaviour no long really happens.

On banks, and to a lessor extent home builders, everyone boxed themselves into a corner on 24 Jun, by taking a hatchet to earnings estimates. At the moment they are not in a position to upgrade earnings based on the more benign economic outlook, so have had to reduce recommendations as targets were met.

It really means not a lot beyond one or two days relative weakness then they will be bought again. Frankly the whole market is underweight domestic banks and home builders

[arja] 06/9/2016 15:39

Also the usual suspects , ie the analysts have downgraded some of the banks . I bet they have mates shorting the stocks with a wink wink approach - only joking ! ( smile )

[raffles the gentleman thug] 06/9/2016 15:24

Its all about Sterling at the moment.

Everyone been riding never ending Sterling weakness without a thought to what happens to the currency in the light of strengthening domestic economy.

But I think folks will have to wake up to the need to rotate into high yielding domestic cyclicals, which have had large and often unjustifiably big downgrades to earnings.

So home builders should do just fine and trend a whole lot higher, as well as companies like ITV and financials, although the latter are taking a shoe-ing this afternoon.

I too buying quite a bit of TW this afternoon

[arja] 06/9/2016 14:58

so it is the banks and other financial stocks which is driving the FTSE index today .

[arja] 06/9/2016 14:44

raffles - it is indeed a strange day with the FTSE down as DOW rises and FTSE would no doubt be looking even worse if it were not for the building stocks . well done with your BKG - what a cracker !

[rikaughty] 06/9/2016 14:41

Agreed raffles. Just doubled my holding.

[raffles the gentleman thug] 06/9/2016 13:00

In short gary its stupidly cheap and imminently about to lurch up to 177p on the chart

[raffles the gentleman thug] 06/9/2016 12:57

Dear me Gary, things have moved on a bit since then my friend !

On 2017 earnings they have committed to paying £450m, comprising £150m of ordinary divided (4.6p a share) and £300m of special dividend (9.2p a share) making a total of 13.8p.

The ordinary dividend is to be paid through the cycle as they believe they can comfortably distribute 5% of net assets a year. This has been stress tested to a 20% reduction in prices and 30% reduction in sales volumes, and holds up.

The special dividend is a continuation of the policy in place since 2014, which is to further distribute all free cashflow after land investment and working capital.

So total expected yield next year is 8.5%.

I would say though that they did not exclude the possibility of buybacks in part place of the special, but since this requires AGM approval next year, we are a long way from that coming into the equation.

[garycook] 06/9/2016 12:43

RGT,How are you working out the forward Dividend.I make it around 11.8p,which at present at 163,is also 7.2%.

[raffles the gentleman thug] 06/9/2016 11:38

Its an odd low volume day all round arja - for instance lunchtime and just 22m LLOY shares trades - remarkable.

But have no doubt TW will rally hard shortly - excitement is building in BKG with a 7.2% yield for the next five years, but shorty investors will be ratcheting up their search for yield and coming to the realisation that TW carries 8.5% which is equally sustainable in a benign economic environment. So hold faith for it will perform ...

[arja] 06/9/2016 11:17

TW so disappointing today as other building stocks really motoring ! maybe it will have it's day in the sun soon !

[raffles the gentleman thug] 06/9/2016 09:07

The market is still wholly unconvinced judging by TW's tepid reaction , and the 7% plus yields still available in this sector

[omg48] 06/9/2016 08:59

Yes excellent news from Redrow, particularly "very little impact from Brexit".

[midasx] 06/9/2016 07:55

Excellent results from Redrow!

[arja] 06/9/2016 07:21

death by donut- seems to be as i notice when looking for house to buy and have seen a few of about 3 or 4 year old and a few were timber framed and much cheaper . But hard to be sure as in a different area . BKL update does not seem too bad but who knows what market will make of it .

[death by donut] 05/9/2016 20:22

Arja , i dont think there is that much diffo in the price between timber / block n brick is there?Personally I wouldnt entertain a timber frame myself , that said , what goes inside a block n brick house aint up to much these days either ,. :-)DbB