Taylor Wimpey Share Discussion Threads

[kfp] 31/3/2011 15:19

Level 2 2.9 million sell v 1.7 million buy

[kfp] 31/3/2011 15:17

CR
Up to now your watched kettle hasn't boiled.

[imastu pidgitaswell] 31/3/2011 14:42

Now looks the answer after all was 41 (for those HHGTTG followers, who after all this time are hopefully dwindling in number - bloody anoraks...) Limpet-like.

Who knows how many end of the year games and profit taking/short covering are in progress today - pity they couldn't just have waited until tomorrow to announce.

[jibba_jabba] 31/3/2011 12:46

Yep they have missed a couple of 100% rises, but will be on board for the 300% one.

[imastu pidgitaswell] 31/3/2011 12:09

I think you're right. But in any event it would doubtless come back to fill the gap from the opening - so if it gets done today, that's OK with me.

[jibba_jabba] 31/3/2011 12:04

Last day of the month and first quarter, Ftse & Dow and others very toppy, Irish bank stress test results due out at 1630..

Market is ignoring all the bad news, the big boys have their own agenda, end of first quarter PROFIT, tomorrow is another day (April FALLS day)

On any other given day this should have been a 10% day..

My view only..

[muscletrade] 31/3/2011 11:59

sorry, should have mentioned that was from Oriel.....

[muscletrade] 31/3/2011 11:58

Taylor Wimpey announced today the disposal of its US businesses for £595m a 3.4%
premium to Net Asset Value at current exchange rates. Net proceeds after GBP20m
costs £575m. The proceeds are payable upon completion of the transaction, which is
expected by the end of May 2011.
• In our view, this transaction is positive for the investment case. As a pure play UK
housebuilder rather than a UK and US housebuilder we believe that Taylor Wimpey
should benefit from a pure play re-rating.
TT
The transaction price is attractive, anything over Net Asset Value is, in our view a
bonus, and as we hoped the pension trustees are taking a commercial view with
respect to use of proceeds and only £32.5m is being earmarked for the pension fund.
• This transaction should be a game changer for Taylor Wimpey and will allow it to take
full advantage of attractively priced land opportunities in the UK and allow the Group to
prepare for a rise in transactions as the mortgage market begins to thaw.
• We retain our BUY recommendation and believe there is more than 50% upside to the
shares based on the average upside across our basket of valuation metrics.

[imastu pidgitaswell] 31/3/2011 11:38

Sir Rational - 31 Mar'11 - 10:44 - 8189 of 8196

I'm expecting some (but not many) small upgrades, remember PG already said they WOULD upgrade TW. if the NA deal got signed for $950m as it would be transformational.




It'll be a sad day when I come to rely on the forecasting of Panmure Gordon as a basis for investing in a company - not sure if I've mentioned this before, but I'm not overwhelmed by their abilities...


:-)

[sir rational] 31/3/2011 11:38

Those budget measures must help a bit

[kfp] 31/3/2011 11:31

Assuming the UK housing market does not decline further

[smurfy2001] 31/3/2011 11:30

TW has become a much better buy than BDEV.

Much lower gearing/debt, less finance costs, what's not too like about this company now?

Share price is highly undervalued considering.

[sir rational] 31/3/2011 11:13

-10% to +20% depending on outlook

[muscletrade] 31/3/2011 10:53

So my back of envelope calculation on NAV was out by a penny....OH well.
question now then is what is appropriate discount to NAV. At current price still 25% discount which seems a bit harsh when compared to others in the sector.

[sir rational] 31/3/2011 10:53

"The sale is the final stage of getting the balance sheet in the right shape and puts us in a strong position for the next five years," Redfern said on a conference call. "We can participate more fully in the U.K. land-buying market."

[sir rational] 31/3/2011 10:44

I'm expecting some (but not many) small upgrades, remember PG already said they WOULD upgrade TW. if the NA deal got signed for $950m as it would be transformational.

[127tolmers] 31/3/2011 10:33

Teleconf summary

net assets neutral to tw.

with centrally held provision 15% premium to net assets.

deferred tax asset factored into sales price to extent they have value.

buyers committed.

central charge broadly unchanged; will come down over time.

no cash tax payable; unwind deferred tax asset.

no rush to change financing structure even though now inefficient.

half proceeds used to reduce debt; half to reinvest in business

got premium for canada but discount for usa

dividends; dependent on sale of tm and no risk of uk downturn.. no there yet

no upgrade of uk market.. just continuation of previous announced trend

no tax leakage on deal

[sir rational] 31/3/2011 10:28

Dividend not this year (probably)

[sir rational] 31/3/2011 10:23

Rule of thumb half the proceeds will repay debt (structurally ie permanently = de-gearing!)

[barf2] 31/3/2011 10:14

How come the NPI didn't make the BBC news?

Oh, yeah, I remember.......it ain't doom so there isn't room for it.