Taylor Wimpey Share Discussion Threads

[spennysimmo] 23/3/2011 16:19

42p close here would be nice...

[smurfy2001] 23/3/2011 16:18

JJ, i've got my eye on EMG too, they pay a divi as well so even if you're at a loss for a while, you get paid.

SR, i'll check it thanks.

[sir rational] 23/3/2011 16:08

Check out the new GNG thread by Rivaldo/Hansel on TMF, Smurf, my nap stock for the year - eoy 31 March, they just presented to Mello showing key customer forecast quadrupling revenues over 3 years.

[jibba_jabba] 23/3/2011 16:07

Also EMG is swinging in the 240s, but there is a gap around 230p, i'm looking to get in there, nice divi on that one aswell..

[jibba_jabba] 23/3/2011 15:59

Smurf, now your flush... Watch CEY. Making a good living there... LTH at 118p swinging from 125 to 130, 10000 a time..

[smurfy2001] 23/3/2011 15:45

lol, probably

[sir rational] 23/3/2011 15:34

Nice one.

Cue the TM news tomorrow 7am lol

[smurfy2001] 23/3/2011 15:27

Been in this a LONG time so decided now to dump 60,000 shares in two unequal tranches and take some profit for once. Still hold 100,000 shares. I would like to see 50p then l can chop 50,000 and leave the rest running for free.

[wendsworth] 23/3/2011 14:50

Sound budget for tw.

Should finish north of 42p today.

If it does then we'll see 43+ before the end of the week.

Good time to be a holder of this stock.

[sir rational] 23/3/2011 14:17

Players and winners
Created:23 March 2011Written by:Alistair Blair

I write as George Osborne puts the finishing touches to his budget speech. Amongst those queuing up for a fillip is the housebuilding sector. Monthly mortgage approvals currently stand at 45,000, which is one third of the average for 2000-2007. If you had been contemplating that prospect five years ago your expectations for housebuilders would have been worse than grim. But the quoted sector is surprisingly intact, although some leading members are financial shadows of their former selves.

Heading the apparition pack are Taylor Wimpey and Barratt Developments who peered over the brink but were pulled back when their banks - assisted in Barratt's case by its shareholders - realised there was scope not only to stick with their clients but to stick it to them as well. Total refinancing fees and interest penalties for over the last two years for these two companies have topped £300m.

The share prices say it all. Both shares are down 90 per cent from their pre-crisis highs and if the shares doubled from here - taking the loss to only 80 per cent, they'd be doing well. Lest it might be considered unreasonable to measure these stocks against their 2007 highs, let's look back 15 years to the start of the last housing cycle. Since 1995, the All Share Index has gained 100 per cent, Barratt has gained 1 per cent and Taylor Woodrow (which became Taylor Wimpey) has lost 60 per cent.

Barratt's particular folly was to spend £2.2bn on its rival Wilson Bowden early in 2007, only weeks after the arrival of Mark Clare as chief executive. That took Barratt's debt from zero to £1.3bn. The outcome of that decision is poignantly captured on page 51 of Barratt's 2010 annual report, which records the lapsing of a provisional 2006 award to Mr Clare under Barratt's Long Term Performance Plan. This covered 112,000 shares worth £10.95 each at the time. When the award lapsed, Barratt's shares stood at 120p.

Mr Clare's performance has clearly improved decisively since then. Last year his grateful colleagues awarded him a bonus of 90 per cent of basic salary and set up a new pot which will lift his potential bonus from 100 per cent to 150 per cent of salary (this new pot will be in shares). Surely the Barratt remuneration committee blushed as it pointed out to shareholders in its report, "it is worth noting that despite the increase in maximum bonus potential... bonus levels were higher prior to the economic downturn". Indeed they were. After the disastrous acquisition of Wilson Bowden in 2007, Mark Clare clocked a bonus of 140 per cent of his salary.

Unkind souls who might think it more appropriate for the committee to attempt to recover Mr Clare's 2007 bonus rather than pay him a further one overlook the fact that although he was an enthusiastic champion of the acquisition Wilson Bowden, Mr Clare could not have proceeded without the backing of his board at that time - the majority of whom remain in place. Last year's bonus - and the forthcoming ones - are not just big fat undeserved tips for Mr Clare. They are also a collective redemption from the whole board to itself. Director pay trends at Taylor Wimpey are in lockstep with those at Barratt.

If that's how the value destroyers are rewarded, imagine what's on the table for those who got it right. Perhaps not - your imagination is unlikely to be up to the task. Way back in 2004, this column castigated a new incentive scheme at one of the UK's most successful residential developers - Berkeley. It accompanied a change in direction which focused Berkeley on huge apartment projects mainly in London and activated a six year plan to return in cash to shareholders £1.4 billion - a figure approximately equal to Berkeley's then market capitalisation. The incentive plan would see Berkeley directors richly rewarded if the return of cash was delivered.

Berkeley duly returned £900m over the subsequent four years at a time when its rivals were borrowing big-time for acquisitions and land purchases. The plan was then reconfigured as Berkeley decided it would be prefer to invest in land than complete its full return of capital. Accordingly, the Incentive Plan was terminated early and only partially completed. The payout to the four participating directors was nevertheless a staggering £68m in shares. I could add in the substantial annual bonuses, but frankly, they're a footnote.

Staggering, but a damn site cheaper than the others: since 1995, and including its return of capital, Berkeley's shareholders are about 400 per cent ahead. I'm almost tempted to retract my castigation.

[sir rational] 23/3/2011 13:34

This is a 44p timebomb waiting to go boom!

Tick tock

[barf2] 23/3/2011 13:01

Especially that new build houses FTB bit

[sir rational] 23/3/2011 12:54

Get up there! It's TW. friendly

[sir rational] 23/3/2011 12:32

Budget alert!

[sir rational] 23/3/2011 11:56

50p does seem to be a reasonable short term target

[the old dog] 23/3/2011 11:32

Why don't they ever put timeframes on those price targets? Anyone would think they were trying to hedge their bets.

Woof

[sir rational] 23/3/2011 10:54

Housing help

The Budget will also include a £250m package designed to help 10,000 first-time buyers to purchase a newly built flat or house, the BBC has learned.

The buyer would have to put up 5% of the cost, while the government and home builder would both put up 10%.

Mr Osborne hopes this scheme will boost the construction industry and help support up to 50,000 jobs.

The number of first-time buyers fell to 347,000 in 2010 - a record low.

In 2004/05, more than 700,000 people purchased their first property.

[sir rational] 23/3/2011 10:52

Brokers

Oriel BUY 63p
Robert Miller 55p
JPM OVERWEIGHT 58p
Arbuthnot BUY 51p
Panmure Gordon HOLD 41p
Goldman Sachs BUY 48p
UBS NEUTRAL 42p
Credit Suisse OUTPERFORM 47p
Deutsche Bank BUY 53p

[sir rational] 23/3/2011 10:49

Deutsche Bank rates the housebuilder Taylor Wimpey a 'buy' with target price of 53p. The broker says, in its review of the UK building sector, that Taylor Wimpey's recent mortgage deal offers with 95% loan to value could pave the way for others to follow. The idea should ease conditions for buyers this year and have a positive effect, writes Deutsche Bank.

[sir rational] 23/3/2011 10:32

I still see my 43-44p budget scenario unfolding.

Support for housebuilders becomes FACT with the budget -----> housebuilders rally -----> 44p

[sir rational] 23/3/2011 09:33

Rates minutes not too bad after all

[sir rational] 23/3/2011 09:10

Can't see either will be good for TW. Jibba.

The hopes are twofold here:

1. budget favourable to housebuilders
2. TM news

plus of course the fundamentals are now improving with the improved mix

[jibba_jabba] 23/3/2011 08:04

MPC Meeting Minutes and Mortgage Approvals 0930..

US new home sales later...

[sir rational] 23/3/2011 07:26

Mr Osborne will also announce £250million of interest-free loans for first-time house buyers to acquire new builds, helping the construction industry at the same time.

[ludl0w] 22/3/2011 16:08

ed, IT ,had nothing to do with those theifing bstards