Taylor Wimpey Share Discussion Threads

[smurfy2001] 24/3/2011 13:54

Profit taking to be expected, even l did a bit myself.

[sir rational] 24/3/2011 13:19

Easy, tiger

[shaws37] 24/3/2011 12:12

ok, who's pulled the plug ?

[ludl0w] 24/3/2011 11:36

spenny ,i did .. doh

[sir rational] 24/3/2011 11:34

Patience required here

[fewdollarsmore] 24/3/2011 11:32

I think it will test above the 44p level perhaps hit 46p then fall back to around 41-42p.

I have sold 25% of my holding still hold 75k. trying to trade with a portion... watch it rise now!

[spennysimmo] 24/3/2011 11:26

luds, i have never sold out.

[imastu pidgitaswell] 24/3/2011 11:22

I'll speculate that we'll see 46p and change intra-day before close of play tomorrow - then a pullback next week. Then a rise upwards to 50p+. Then, no idea...

Basis? Just to fake a repeat of the April 2010 peak and slide (which went all the way down to low 20s, al just to close a bloody gap...)

[sir rational] 24/3/2011 11:19

Reckon it'll consolidate with more opportunities to buy in 40-44p

[ludl0w] 24/3/2011 11:16

ed, yes i asked you should i buy in before budget, you shouted yes ,had this on watch list too long ,doh

[sir rational] 24/3/2011 11:14

Looks like my scenario panned out so far Luds

[ludl0w] 24/3/2011 11:14

spenny did you buy back in?

[spennysimmo] 24/3/2011 11:04

Don't underestimate the power of the santa rally.

[sir rational] 24/3/2011 10:42

Quite a bit depends on TM price achieved

AND

whether the substantial deferred tax assets sitting in North America can be recognised, perhaps as pert of the sale.

If they are, which nobody is factoring in, that alone is worth some 8p on NAV.

[imastu pidgitaswell] 24/3/2011 10:39

In fact the last thing we (or anybody) wants is rising prices, which will kill volumes. Profits can be made at or around current prices - it's stability and the underlying shortage that will drive volumes.

Naive, I know, as the herd mentality kicks in, but we can hope that some experience is applied to the market.

[imastu pidgitaswell] 24/3/2011 10:37

Earnings are nowhere near what they need to be to justify a 'steady state' earnings valuation, based on earnings multiple and/or dividend yield - that could take some time (years) to 'normalise' to a sustainable volume of sales and therefore earnings.

I think mostly that peeps will therefore use a multiple (0.9, 1.1 etc) of Net Asset Value as a guide, and look at competitors, even some takeover/sales valuations (e.g. the forthcoming Taylor Morrison disposal).

TW with an NAV of 57p (increasing as profits increase and they don't pay any of them out as dividends) and rising suggests a base of around 50p, but I don't think we'll see much North of 60p in the forseeable future.

[fewdollarsmore] 24/3/2011 10:36

Spenny - I think there are still a few shocks ahead of us in the housing market. I do not think the prices will rise in the foreseable future however the population is continuing to grow and there is still a shortage of housing therefore one would think simple demand and supply would cause a rise in prices but we have to consider the availability of cash and the affordability factor not quite on a knife edge but something needs to give over time.

[spennysimmo] 24/3/2011 10:31

Being serious, £1.67 would take TW back to it's peak in old money and I don't think that will happen. With steady growth on the housing market from lows and gradual increased mortgage availability I don't think £1.00 over time is out of the question.

[smurfy2001] 24/3/2011 10:30

TM Sale = 50p chaps!

Breakout like a rash.

[fewdollarsmore] 24/3/2011 10:28

Only 106p to my £1.50 target... I will get my coat!

[spennysimmo] 24/3/2011 10:26

Only 56p to my £1.00 target!

[sir rational] 24/3/2011 10:24

Steady on - there was ALWAYS going to be a big show of churn @ 44p.

Had it down as a 90 day limit sell a few weeks ago (just in case ;-) ) but the newsflow is too good for that plus we've got the TM sale to push us over 50p.

So consolidation before we surge forwards I reckon.

[smurfy2001] 24/3/2011 10:22

Looking great.

Only 6p to my 50p target!

[shaws37] 24/3/2011 10:13

take off......

[ludl0w] 24/3/2011 10:03

imastu pidgitaswell - good luck whatever your decision