Taylor Wimpey Share Discussion Threads

[sir rational] 11/3/2011 15:37

Aqua I reckon DJIA does indeed want to go up

[sir rational] 11/3/2011 15:34

Affro - no Friday evening knees up for you old fella lol

[imastu pidgitaswell] 11/3/2011 15:29

Well good luck with it - it's more than I can manage.

I had a look, as suggested, (as I've nothing better to do...) and the five waves from 24th Feb are there - but to be honest for me, only in hindsight. As far as seeing in the middle of it the third wave and trading it, it looks even more difficult to pick a suitable buy and sell point within the three days in question, unless you know what you're doing - which I certainly don't. As I say, more than I can manage.



third wave:



Actually, now that I have the right section (ahem...) it it is easier to see. But still not sure why I would sell near the top of wave 3, and also wouldn't have sold (had I missed out selling in wave 3) in wave 5 as it had held up well in wave 4. As I say, not a trader - I know I can't do it - I would have sold about a third of the way up wave 3, as it started to dip...

[aphrodites] 11/3/2011 15:24

Sir R

You could well be right about the asset sale not being in the price.

But I am not trading the share on a bear tact.

I am trading the rises in the bull run and hopefully will be in when the news breaks.

But how far away is that? And how much more puffing comes to nothing in the short term?

[aphrodites] 11/3/2011 15:13

IMASTU

When you understand how a "hopalong" trades and you learn more about using the Elliott Wave Theory that is the time to question what I post.

I am not here to give lessons but I have tried to help several posters who wanted to know more about the Elliott Wave charting practice.

Check back and you will see that everything I have posted meets the criteria I use.

If you are a short term trader like me, you would never take your eye off the long term trend.

But there is plenty of money to be made trading the rises and falls on the way.

In one of my first posts on this thread I said I trade, not always, in size in highly liquid stocks and look for the 3rd wave upwards in a bull trend to buy. And I only look for 10/20% profits.

I have been buying 500,000 shares in TW because I know the market is highly liquid and the spread is most times only .02 between the buy and sell in 100,000 shares.It's easy to sell the lot in the current market.

Just have a look at the move up from 36.25p on 24 February on a short term chart and you will see the 5 waves.

And also the point I posted here recently which I bought in at in that move.

You, like Sir R, are always looking at the long term trend but post here so frequently that you should both be short term traders. Maybe, you both have nothing better to do with your time! :o)

I do not get it right every time. But the score is around 8 out of 10.

I have to "hop" off now to look at my Bowleven trade. That does not meet my 5 wave criteria to trade in size but it is a long term hold where I hope to treble my money!!!!! You would be better to put your TW money there!

[aquadave99] 11/3/2011 15:11

ah! it looked alright a few minutes ago! honest.

[sir rational] 11/3/2011 15:06

News of TM leaking $2b?

[aquadave99] 11/3/2011 15:04

Any other thoughts? lol

[sir rational] 11/3/2011 15:03

Don't think it's that

[aquadave99] 11/3/2011 15:02

DJIA to the rescue.

[sir rational] 11/3/2011 14:38

Affro - I reckon you're dead wrong about the TM news being baked in the cake.

Nobody knows the price, the timing, the tax implications, whether it's all NA or bits, the deferred tax assets usability - even whether there's going to be a deal at all.

Leading on to doubt about whether TW. can transform its heavily geared business model to a UK-focused lower geared model or not

That invariably means doubt = lower price.

[imastu pidgitaswell] 11/3/2011 14:22

Alright hopalong - heard you the first time...

Well, puffing on here about assets sales are at least comments that reflect real world transactions - cash, debt, assets etc.

Not sure (but not denying it) that you can say anything at this stage about being in a down wave - it's in a pretty clear uptrend, and like all Elliot Wave stuff, the waves are in the eye of the beholder. There really are not 5 waves (3 up and 2 down) on the trip up to 42p. More like 15. Or is it 17?...

[aphrodites] 11/3/2011 14:20

Sorry about the duplication.

I was disturbed by an attractive nurse!

[imastu pidgitaswell] 11/3/2011 14:14

Just to cloud the issue a bit further:




From the comments on the article:

"Perhaps it's just me, but did you not report on the 2nd of March "UK house prices stage surprise rise as mortgage approvals also up. Mortgage approvals in the UK rose more than forecast in January, while house prices ticked up last month, providing further glimmers of economic recovery."



Which is it DT?

The former depicting a bleak landscape to help their benefactors and the latter .. alanr

Approvals don't mean completions. The CML figure is completions, despite what the reporter states.

(And the BoE figures are seasonally-adjusted nonsense. )



So there you go - on-one has any idea...

[aphrodites] 11/3/2011 14:13

I have not posted here having been on holiday in our villa in Antigua and then returned to have a knee replacement op yesterday.

I took my profits at 42p. Too much puffing on here ref comments about asset sales in the USA.

Remember the old rule BUY THE RUMOUR SELL THE FACT.

I am not certain the asset sale is not already in the price and anyway I did say here I would be well out before the next 5 Wave target of 45p.

My rule proved correct again.

Sitting here in bed in some discomfort with my lap-top I was surprised to see the share price collapse so quickly today to below 39p at one time.

The Elliott 5 waves have been completed and we are now in another downward wave pattern. This could be a simple 3 wave correction or another full 5 wave fall which could see us a lot lower.

If we do not close above 39.43p tonight then we certainly will move lower to test the 36p.

This share has a horrible record of collapsing after completing a 5 wave sequence.Just look at the top chart for proof.

I am out for the time being and watching carefully for the next buy signal

Take care my friends.

[naed] 11/3/2011 13:02

SR
I'll check on on that one

[sir rational] 11/3/2011 12:58

For future reference some lenders give you an option to take out the mortgage (for a fee) that can be a lot longer than 4 months

[naed] 11/3/2011 12:53

I'm recently buying a property in Bewdley @350 GBP. I'm a sole trader working overseas, i do have a property in France but this is not sold yet. I was offered a 80% mortgage by NatWest IOM. This was offered last November, since then though a structural survey says i need some under-pinioning. Not a problem though, TW. Have rose sharply since then. Insurance company are dragging their feet, again till now not a problem. The bank contacted me saying after 3 months there would be a new offer on the table, they managed to extend the old offer for 2 weeks but now from the banks direct:- " The banks rates have changed and if the mortgage does not draw down prior to the 15th March 2011 then this will mean that the mortgage repayments will be higher. Sadly we cannot extend the current rate any further".Hope tw. Can make 50p to cover my extra cost!

[naed] 11/3/2011 12:53

I'm recently buying a property in Bewdley @350 GBP. I'm a sole trader working overseas, i do have a property in France but this is not sold yet. I was offered a 80% mortgage by NatWest IOM. This was offered last November, since then though a structural survey says i need some under-pinioning. Not a problem though, TW. Have rose sharply since then. Insurance company are dragging their feet, again till now not a problem. The bank contacted me saying after 3 months there would be a new offer on the table, they managed to extend the old offer for 2 weeks but now from the banks direct:- " The banks rates have changed and if the mortgage does not draw down prior to the 15th March 2011 then this will mean that the mortgage repayments will be higher. Sadly we cannot extend the current rate any further".Hope tw. Can make 50p to cover my extra cost!

[sir rational] 11/3/2011 12:42

It looks like the MMR framework will be published by the regulator in Autumn this year with implementation to happen in 2012.

FSA chief executive Hector Sants "The MMR is still at the stage of analysis. I am sure we all recognise the market place did not function well in the decade prior to 2007. Credit expanded by 200%, but there was no consequent rise in the percentage of homeownership, nor was there an increase in first time buying.

"We do, however, recognise the sensitivity of the interaction between our actions and the public policy agenda."

"Our goal will be to reduce the possibility of consumer detriment in relation to affordability occurring without impacting the ability of the market place to offer affordable mortgages," Sants said.

The Mortgage Industry has been concerned about the impact of the proposed regulation for some considerable time.

Satvinder Singh Business Development Director at Contractor Mortgages Made Easy stated that "it is good to see that the regulator is not looking to push through decisions."



"My thoughts regarding the MMR has always been it is a good thing, my concern was always will decisions be rushed through or will proper consultation take place. To be fair to the regulator they have invited the industry for feedback and changed some of their original thinking. Nobody likes change but it was inevitable and now that everyone is fully considering the impact on consumer detriment I'm confident all market participants will benefit from the resulting changes."

In the short term we have seen some lenders that offer contractor mortgages no longer willing to do as a consequence of what was proposed in the MMR but looking forward we hope that the landscape will change and lenders will revisit some of the decisions they have made recently.

With a number of positive signs in both the contractor and mortgage markets for 2011, many contractors will be looking to enter the property market again this year. It is highly recommend that any contractor who has a requirement for mortgage advice utilises the services of a specialist contractor mortgage broker. Someone who understands contractor work patterns and payment methodology, rather than a generic broker who is more likely to waste a client's time and money as a result of a failed mortgage application.

[sir rational] 11/3/2011 12:40

Mig will not aid FTBs unless FSA relaxes rules on capital
24 February 2011 | By Paul Thomas
.
The Building Societies Association says mortgage indemnity insurance guarantees will not encourage lenders to lend at higher loan to value ratios unless the capital requirements for this type of lending are relaxed.

Insurance provider Genworth Financial said this week it has agreed to provide mortgage indemnity insurance for the building society collective Mutual One, whose members include Hanley Economic and Skipton building societies.


.The announcement follows a meeting called by housing minister Grant Shapps with leading industry figures last week, where they debated whether Mig has a role in helping first-time buyers.

BSA head of mortgage policy Paul Broadhead says it is the capital requirements for high-LTV lending rather than the risk of default that discourages lenders.

He says: "Until the FSA gives concessions over capital where a lender has a Mig in place, there will not be the benefits to lenders that often get talked about because it does not make it any less expensive for them."

Precise Mortgages managing director Alan Cleary says: "The more risky the loan, the more cap- ital you have to put down. The return on capital for a lender is significantly less at 95 per cent than it is at 50 per cent LTV. The insurance makes no difference, the issue is the return on capital."

[sir rational] 11/3/2011 12:39

'Indemnity cover key to securing FTB loans'
18 February 2011 8:00 am | By Paul Thomas

Leading industry figures have agreed that mortgage indemnity insurance has a key role to play in persuading banks to lend to first-time buyers.

On Tuesday, housing minister Grant Shapps called a meeting of industry figures to discuss how to help first-time buyers get into the property market. The attendees included Council of Mortgage Lenders director general Michael Coogan, Building Societies Association head of mortgage policy Paul Broadhead, Genworth Financial president of mortgage insurance for Europe Angel Mas and FSA manager of credit risk Duncan Mackinnon.

.Representatives from major housebuilders, insurers and consumer groups were also present.

Mas says: "We discussed MI, not as a compulsory requirement but how it could incentivise banks to lend to FTBs. In general, everybody agreed that MI has to play a role."

An FSA spokeswoman says: "It is something that we recognise as a tool lenders can use."