Taylor Wimpey Share Discussion Threads

[newkid] 15/3/2011 11:45

Well I sold this morning and it seems I made a small profit of £400 on the deal. Took 18 months of investing to get it having invested £16k. Didn't think TW would fall back to 36p range again. Going to sit on the side lines for now.

[kfp] 15/3/2011 11:44

Ftse down 2.2 % TW down 5.1 % ?

[sir rational] 15/3/2011 10:47

Putting it back up as I think some stocks are showing signs of bouncing back/ panic overdone and my hope is TW. is one of those

[sir rational] 15/3/2011 10:01

More land bank goes up in value

[sir rational] 15/3/2011 09:58

Please respect FT.com's ts&cs and copyright policy which allow you to: share

Homebuilders' surprise as interest revives
By Ed Hammond

Published: March 14 2011 23:58 | Last updated: March 14 2011 23:58

Caught out when the property market crashed in 2008, executives of the UK's largest housebuilders have since been reluctant to express too much optimism about their industry.

The onset of recession obliterated entrenched and often-voiced convictions about the resilience of the housing market; balance sheets, share prices and, in some cases, management teams, fell foul of the downturn.

EDITOR'S CHOICE
In depth: UK housebuilders - Nov-17.MJ Gleeson sees improvement in market - Nov-22.Mortgage lending stagnant in October - Nov-18.Persimmon sees little sign of housing uplift - Nov-15.Telford cautions of delay to recovery - Oct-21.House sales gloom for builders - Oct-19..But as buyers' interest has proved resilient since the start of the year, even the most bearish in the industry are beginning to discuss the possibility of a recovery.

In the first nine weeks of the year - traditionally a period of insipid demand for new homes - all six of the national housebuilders have seen a rebound in both the number of visitors to show-homes and downpayments on properties.

Persimmon and Barratt, two of the UK's three large volume homebuilders, reported "unusually" high activity levels at their combined 732 selling sites during the first few weeks of the year. Close rival Taylor Wimpey, meanwhile, said that, as well as higher than expected reservations, it was managing to sell more properties without using incentive schemes and discounts.

"It's almost as if someone has flicked a switch as we've got into 2011 and the market has come back quite encouragingly. There is pent-up demand in the marketplace. It's cheaper to buy than it is to rent in many parts of the country," says David Ritchie, chief executive of Bovis Homes.

Mr Ritchie's company has experienced a 28 per cent jump in site visitors in the nine weeks to March 4, compared to the same period in 2010, in spite of only a moderate increase in the number of outlets.

"What we are seeing now is a realisation from people that the market is not going to see any fluctuations from here and so they are getting off the fence," Mr Ritchie added.

The unexpected strength of demand has caught many in the industry by surprise, particularly as it follows a tough autumn selling season during which, according to leaked industry data, sales fell below 2008 levels – assumed by many to be the nadir of the market.

Investors too have piled into housebuilding stocks since the start of the year, with all but Redrow outperforming the FTSE All-Share index.

However, rather than talking up the prospects of a genuine recovery, the bosses of most housebuilders are damping expectations and pointing instead to the fragility that remains in the property market.

"We are happy with the rate of sales at the moment, but sentiment is fragile and all it needs is a raft of bad news and we will see sales fall right back again," warns Mark Clare, chief executive of Barratt.

Clyde Lewis, a housebuilding analyst at Citi, says the good start could just be the early arrival of the buying activity which typically fuels the crucial spring selling season.

"We are past any run- over from December and so you have to say, yes, it is surprising. But the long- term arguments, such as a constrained mortgage market or low consumer confidence, haven't changed for why it is a hard market and it could all turn next month," says Mr Lewis.

He also believes housebuilders will hang back from making any calls about the likelihood of a recovery in the market, having been caught out in the past.

"No one wants to stand up and say: yes, we are off again," he says.

Additional reporting by Mark Wembridge
.Copyright The Financial Times Limited 2011. You may share

[sir rational] 15/3/2011 09:23

Yep Kfp even non blueys can get them here on ADVFN with a little trick.

Vol today 09.20 = 2.75m
Yesterday 09.20 = 1.6m

[imastu pidgitaswell] 15/3/2011 09:23

aspers - there's every point if you're not sure (as I'm not) when they will stop falling, as the pricing over the past few days has little to do with the specifics of TW. Hindsight trading is easy.

Sell now and buy back for a higher cost tomorrow? Nah...

[kfp] 15/3/2011 09:19

Sir Rational
lol But I realise every man and his dog have live prices these days !

[aspers] 15/3/2011 09:05

Little point on sitting on a loss when they are falling.....get rid now and buy back cheaper in a few days...that way loss is not really a loss as they recover from a new low!!

[imastu pidgitaswell] 15/3/2011 08:59

No, just that it's no longer at 42, and I'm not selling for a loss, hence no decision to make until it's back there or thereabouts.

But what do you think?

[fewdollarsmore] 15/3/2011 08:54

ima.... so what you saying are we heading further south?!

[imastu pidgitaswell] 15/3/2011 08:51

My view of the bright side is that at least I don't have to make any decisions about whether to sell around 43-45p for no profit, or hang on for more - as was last week's concern...

Meantime:




Draw your own bloody lines...


:-)

[sir rational] 15/3/2011 08:19

Yeah but the downside is kfp will replace me as Mr Lightning Fingers

[kfp] 15/3/2011 08:17

NewKid
Cheer up , at least Sir Rational
will stop posting every move in the share price !!!

[kfp] 15/3/2011 08:15

L2 1.8 mil buy v 1.8 mil sell

[newkid] 15/3/2011 08:13

Just wish I had sold last week when I looked at the trade. Now sitting on a loss again.

[ludl0w] 15/3/2011 08:11

hi hole silver lining

[sir rational] 15/3/2011 08:08

Not just me who sees silver lining Spenny!

[spennysimmo] 15/3/2011 08:05

Handle forming?

[sir rational] 15/3/2011 07:13

We could have done with a takeover bid lol - still, WB stll has another $50b down the back of the sofa, maybe he'll come bargain hunting.

2-3% off at the FTSE open, if universally applied = some 39p and I think I'd be pretty happy if that's all it turns out to be.

[kfp] 14/3/2011 17:56

When everyone calms down could be a better day tomorrow, depending on events in Bahrain, been forgotten because of Japan.