System1 Share Discussion Threads

[boonkoh] 15/7/2024 22:10

Indeed NChanning...I think the broker, Cannacord, is not doing a good enough job IMO keeping up.On the 3 July, with the FY results data (including the good Q1 numbers already) they only had a price target of 630p.9 days later, on the 12 July, with the Q1 TU, they upgraded to 840p price target!I think the broker has shown they have no credibility in terms of their forecasts for this fast growing company. No inside track knowledge. On the current momentum, SYS1 is all but certain to beat forecasts? Will become apparent with Q2 Trading Update.

[nchanning] 12/7/2024 07:49

Very normal behaviour when a company is experiencing such tremendous growth . Easy for management to lowball forecasts and keep everyone happy

[nchanning] 12/7/2024 07:37

Don't let go of a single share imho . Q1 revenue 9.5m and just 36.5m forecast by Canaccord for the whole year . If the business flatlines for the whole year they would beat this number . In reality I think next year's 42m revenue forecast is achievable this year , and would mean another colossal beat on EPS

[boonkoh] 03/7/2024 15:58

Pretty good IMC presentation. Not too long too, I advise anyone to watch if you have time once the recording is out.Some insightful tidbits on how sticky the existing customers are. Many taking all three Platforms, and many also taking all three divisional services (platform, data consultancy, bespoke consultancy).

[boonkoh] 03/7/2024 08:32

Big acceleration in growth rates, for Platform.Q1 is +70%. Q4 was +42%. Q3 was +46%. Clearly a step change?Looking at Q1 total rev, it's +6.9% higher than Q4. So annualised, we're looking at 30% growth rate in total rev if this trend continues.

[nchanning] 03/7/2024 07:27

Upgrades yet again from Cannacord and they look extremely conservative with 9.3m revenue in the first quarter and just 36.5 for the whole year . Implying no growth for a business in rampant growth mode . And if we do beat on revenue we will beat big on the bottom line , thanks to that lovely gross margin . Not far away from that 100m market cap level where a lot more institutions can get involved too

[boonkoh] 21/6/2024 12:54

Big chunky buys today... Good news on the way? Been a while since we got an update on trading.

[cockerhoop] 28/5/2024 15:33

They are related - langfristige has a holding in Chapters.

I think there were more than 3 buyers, maybe up to 12 but not all will have to notify.

[boonkoh] 28/5/2024 14:09

Really interesting, I wonder if the two German holdings were related parties or coordinated.If this overhang has been holding the shares back, we might see a surge back above 500p. If the three new institutional investors are hoovering up more shares in the background to expand their stakes.

[nchanning] 28/5/2024 14:01

Two world wars , 1 World Cup and now the best growth stock on AIM passing from German to British hands

[boonkoh] 24/5/2024 16:34

... And Octopus also picking up some of the shares. Wow. 3 institutions wanted shares k. System1, all quite tech focused too!

[boonkoh] 24/5/2024 15:46

Two tech focused funds taking the name-too-long German 10% stake. Kestrel and BGF.But the Germans were also quite invested in many tech public equities globally... And despite increasing and decreasing their stake since 2020, have never completely exited System1....Hopefully this was an overhang that will now allow the share price to break through 500p?

[nchanning] 24/5/2024 11:56

Kestrel not averse to taking very large positions 20% plus in companies

[mr5k] 24/5/2024 11:47

Kestrel is a specialist IT investor and often has board seats on investee companies. I wonder if they have one here.

[nchanning] 24/5/2024 11:24

Buyer might want more .... Seller is out

[nchanning] 24/5/2024 11:19

No sir it was ze Germans . But someone happy to take 10% of the company off their hands , perhaps ready for next leg up now

[boonkoh] 24/5/2024 08:14

Massive trade yesterday. John Kearon exiting and selling his whole stake?

[boonkoh] 02/5/2024 10:14

Next leg up coming...! :)

[nchanning] 16/4/2024 07:54

Forecasts again look set to be beaten next year . 8.7m revenue in Q4 and just 34.5 forecast for fy 2025 for a company that just grew 28% yoy .

[eliiwanier] 12/4/2024 16:13

Nothing to buy at the moment

[hydrus] 12/4/2024 11:13

Yes I agree. Looking forward to the trading update. The quarterly updates enables investors to model the likely annual outcome vs broker forecasts which is very helpful.

[cockerhoop] 11/4/2024 21:54

Hi Hydrus,

Yes, I've held on a couple of occasions but started the current position in July 2021 and added again in 2023 after the October trading statement when it was clear they were very likely to be upgrading forecasts with the Interims.

Whilst i'm far from an industry expert I like the data platform product and their general philosophy on advertising effectiveness and think James Gregory has added some business discipline that was probably lacking previously. Now the data platform is starting to get scale the operational gearing could be very strong here so I like the risk/reward.

[cockerhoop] 11/4/2024 09:38

Saying that I think the buying may be related to the probability of exceeding forecasts, any growth in Q424 over Q324 will provide the 5th consecutive upgrade.