System1 Share Discussion Threads

[boonkoh] 14/7/2021 07:37

The way I see it, the outlook this year is for good revenue growth. However, costs will increase in line with revenue, so EPS will roughly stay the same. Maybe a slight increase, so I'm pencilling in 14p EPS.As they are cash positive, high gross margin, and top line growing my estimate is that they'll trade on a PE of 17-25 earnings. So that's a share price range of 238p to 350p.Wouldn't be surprised if we get back to up to the 230s or 240s in the next few days. And before the HY results, gyrate and go as high as 280. But the leg up past 300 will depend on a good confirmatory trading statement or HY results.

[eezymunny] 14/7/2021 07:32

Indeed. I guess if the products are market leading, their lofty goals are achievable and they become a cash generating monster. If not I guess they tick over... We´ll see!

[cockerhoop] 14/7/2021 07:30

Simon,

Pretty uncharacteristic too, I previously held as they started developing ad-ratings a few years ago and I can't recall such a positive narrative from the company. It's clear they're (finally) excited by the prospects for their data products.

As Pireric suggests with the Canaccord numbers, investment in scale will likely suppress FY2022 EPS but further strong growth in data revenue may help investors look beyond the short term.

Found the adidas example of testing (& back testing) a customer requested new category very interesting.

[simon gordon] 14/7/2021 06:10

Can't say they lack ambition:

We believe that System1 could be worth £1 billion eventually. Management owns 30% of the business, excluding shares under option. We take every decision with our medium term £100m+ Revenue milestone in mind. Aside from the automated product strategy, our choices on the calibre of our talent, the workflows in the company, our supply chain, the IT systems, and much more support achieving this goal.

[hydrus] 13/7/2021 18:27

Thanks Pireric - I'd be comfortable with that if they can achieve strong revenue growth and it is clear what the investments are going towards. Could be a bid target I guess if they really nail it as the company is very cheap without the dialled up costs.

[pireric] 13/7/2021 17:10

FWIW, the broker is forecasting 6.5p of EPS for the current financial year, down from ~18p in the financial year just gone, on higher costs. That's despite revenues increasing from ~22.6m to 26.1m this year

Eric

[p1nkfish] 13/7/2021 14:57

Hydrus, yes, market will discount it in advance if the path looks clear.

Each to their own but my attitude has been to take a position and assume its 12-18 months as that way I won't be throwing toys out of the pram if its not much sooner.

Margins should expand as they scale off the investment in the automation.

Quite interested to see if this develops as suspected.
Could be lucrative.

[hydrus] 13/7/2021 13:37

The investment in their data offerings might mean that profits only grow in line with, or possibly behind revenue growth but I suspect the market will respond to fast revenue growth and re-rate accordingly. I don't think we will be waiting until it all falls through to the bottom line.The big question is whether the Q4 growth continues and if so how quickly revenue from data grows.

[p1nkfish] 13/7/2021 13:12

It's the future potential rate of change that interests me, on scale. You can end up with 2 or 3 effects compounding and really see decent appreciation. Let's see. Give it 12-18 months to show through imho.

GLA.

[p1nkfish] 13/7/2021 13:10

From the TU.

In the short-med term increased costs but that should be an accelerant in future years. One to drip into on weakness but probably no quick re-rate. It will certainly be intereting on acceleration as it could generate very decent cash.

"........we are targeting revenue growth to be at least matched by the rate of cost growth as we prioritise scaling our automated predictive products."

 

[p1nkfish] 13/7/2021 12:35

SG, at this point I think EBQ over next 6-9 months.

Sys1 investment in their offering will hold them back a while but there will be a time where Sys1 could well show a faster growth rate than EBQ and see very decent growth, perhaps 12 months out.

For me its not either/or, I hold both.

[balcony] 13/7/2021 12:14

Simon-No but tempted.

[simon gordon] 13/7/2021 12:11

Balcony,

I remember. I was put off by the £10m debt pile relative to market cap.

Nice one!!

You in this one?

[balcony] 13/7/2021 12:05

Simon-We were looking at EBQ at 20p,p1inkfish bought i believe.

[simon gordon] 13/7/2021 11:51

Hi p1nk,

Which of the two do you think is the better value and most upside potential?

Cheers!

[p1nkfish] 13/7/2021 11:29

EBQ TU is postive today and a good sign overall. Recovery happening.

[p1nkfish] 13/7/2021 07:13

About 25K-30K share overhang at 219p.

[simon gordon] 09/7/2021 11:57

The CEO has quite the LinkedIn CV for such a tiddler:

Stefan Barden is an experienced and entrepreneurial FTSE 250 CEO supporting selected Entrepreneurs and Investment funds build ever more successful companies in the UK, Europe and internationally; with a focus on hyper-growth.

Stefan currently supports a portfolio of 5 businesses which aspire to be at the leading edge of change in their industries. He supports management teams deliver step change value by aiding their setting of clear strategies, creating a positive performance culture that 'gets work done', and in helping build strong teams:

Continued...

[simon gordon] 09/7/2021 11:09

Jon Evans the Chief Marketing Officer has his own podcast:

Uncensored CMO

The Uncensorced CMO was created to explore the good, the bad and quite frankly downright ugly truth about marketing theory & practice.

[simon gordon] 09/7/2021 10:51

Advanced Television - 9/7/21:

ITV, System1 unveil winner of Euros ad comp

ITV and System1 have announced that Aldi’s “Good Swap Bad Swap Euros” advert has won their creative contest to receive a free ad spot during Sunday’s eagerly awaited Euro 2020 Final as England take on Italy at Wembley live on ITV.

Aldi’s advert, which features commentator Clive Tyldesley analysing a BBQ like a football match was deemed to be the most emotionally engaging and enjoyed amongst audiences.

System1, an independent specialist ad testing agency, worked with ITV to measure each ad’s level of emotional engagement using their star rating system to arrive at a shortlist of five. Their approach is based on the work of psychologist Paul Ekman and has been validated using the IPA’s effectiveness award winners to link emotional engagement to long term effectiveness.

Aldi’s advert was deemed the winner based on the use of both System1’s ad testing methodology and feedback from a representative sample of UEFA Euro 2020 viewers from the ITV Village, ITV’s community of viewers managed by STRAT7 ResearchBods, on which was the most liked in the context of the tournament.

The top five adverts which rated the most highly were Aldi, plus Carlsberg ‘The Seal’, Gillette ‘Gillette X Raheem Sterling – Best Face Forward’, Kopparberg ‘To Firsts That Last’ and Ocado ‘There’s an Ocado Just For You’.

Sean McGinty, Marketing Director, Aldi UK said: “We’re delighted to win this competition and it’s great to see that our distinctive brand tone of voice has resonated so well. With this execution we wanted to ensure we were relevant and so by partnering with legendary commentator, Clive Tyldesley, we were able to deliver our famous Aldi humour in a way which has clearly appealed.”

Kate Waters, Director of Client Strategy and Planning ITV, ITV Commercial said “As we’ve seen from the incredible viewing figures across the tournament, nothing captures the mood of the nation quite like live football and it’s clear from our research results that Aldi’s football themed ad has completely tapped into this. Sunday’s final is the most anticipated TV event in 55 years and I’m delighted that Aldi will be part of it as winners of this competition.”

Jon Evans, CMO at System1, said “Aldi have a track record of making wonderfully effective advertising and continue their strong performance with their Euro ad. They get the basics absolutely right with brilliant use of humour, a strong cultural reference and lots of character. Special mention must also go to Carlsberg, who also scored highly and make a serious point in a fun and engaging way that really connected with audiences



-----

Imagine if they could snag one of the big networks in America.

Such a long flight path if they get altitude.

[stav13] 09/7/2021 09:41

ITV and System1 can announce that Aldi’s “Good Swap Bad Swap Euros” advert has won their creative contest to receive a free ad spot during Sunday’s eagerly awaited Euro 2020 Final as England take on Italy at Wembley live on ITV.

[boonkoh] 08/7/2021 12:50

More than the usual trading volumes last few days. Results out on the 14th, will be very interesting.

[simon gordon] 07/7/2021 14:41

Fluent bull case from last year's Prelims - 30/6/20:

4) GENERATE NEW REVENUES. Although the number of annual subscribers to AdRatings is still low, it's proving a very effective way to sell System1's ad testing consultancy and a high proportion of our new ad testing clients are also choosing to subscribe.

In the last quarter of the year we launched Test Your Ad, to increase access to our testing and generate additional revenues from AdRatings. Users can upload and pre-test any ad and get next-day or even same-day predictions for a fraction of current costs. They see the likely performance of their ad and can compare it with all other ads in their category. It's early days, but the initial reaction has been extremely positive and ITV are promoting the service to all their advertisers. Test Your Ad is our online offering and AdRatings remains the name for our advert database.

The combination of the year's initiatives meant we grew ad testing Gross Profit by 8%, in a year in which System1's overall Gross Profit declined 2%. Over the last two years, ad testing has grown to the same size as innovation testing, which for many years has been the largest part of the business. Growth in ad testing has significant commercial advantage in being generally a sole-supplier, long-term partnership with clients, whereas innovation testing tends to be bought project by project from a roster of suppliers.

To create a far bigger business we have made a number of important senior appointments; Orlando Wood as Chief Innovation Officer, Mark Beard as Chief Technology Officer, Karen Wolfe as Chief Commercial Officer, Jon Evans as Chief Marketing Officer, Emma Cooper as Chief People Officer and Robyn Di Cesare as Global Director of Research & Guidance. There are two recent appointments to complete our Management Team for the future. Chris Willford joins as CFO and Stefan Barden currently an Advisor, is temporarily taking the vacant COO position. Chris brings huge commercial and financial experience having been UK Finance Director at Barclays PLC and Group Finance Director at Bradford & Bingley PLC, (FTSE 100 businesses), as well as working as a consultant with scale up media and tech business similar to System1. Stefan brings Tech, Data and Online experience, having been a FTSE 250 CEO and the CEO who in three years grew Wiggle from £140m turnover to £360m, to become Europe's #1 online sports retailer.

Over the last two years, we have reshaped much of the business, automated many of our products, generated increasing industry profile and created a management team capable of achieving our goal to become the world leader in predicting advertising effectiveness. There remains much to do, but we believe that we are further ahead than our competitors. There will be many more innovations in the coming year, as we continue to automate our predictions, increase System1's fame, attract new customers and drive revenues.

In summary, over the last year System1 has taken its leading research IP and created data products and assets to complement our historic consultancy services. We have been recognised by industry leaders in what we do and are firmly becoming the research industry's champion for creativity, backed by data. In the UK, our pilot market, we have developed partnerships with ITV, the largest retailer of advertising space and globally with LinkedIn, the B-2-B platform. It bodes well for the future, but we know there is much still to do.

[simon gordon] 06/7/2021 20:51

Had a good read of Maynard's piece after seeing SYS1 flagged on another thread as an idea.

That's a nice big bowl on the chart to get back to 1000p.

Looks ready to move from deep value to growth. Tightly held, buy backs returning, global spread, operational gearing with new test products and a revitalised top team. Looks a banger.

Cheers!!

[boonkoh] 01/7/2021 19:05

Maynard Payton, a private investor that I follow on his blog, has topped up on SYS1.Read more about this and also links to his in depth analysis on SYS1: hxxps://maynardpaton.com/2021/07/01/q2-2021-2-top-ups-and-5-lessons-from-owning-5-shares-for-10-years/#q2-share-trades-sys1