Singer Capital Markets initiate with a 960p price target. See potential to nearly double PBT from FY 25 to FY 27. |
I'm not sure there's enough liquidity to make the chart that useful. Less than 10k of trades can move it quite a lot. |
Agreed. Could just be profit taking. Anyone who bought during calendar 2023 (or later 2022) has made 200% profit.
Last trading update was just 3 weeks ago and had a bullish tone, and ahead of expectations. Difficult to think that things have changed in that time period, though agree about the chart.
Volume are tiny too which works in both directions |
Chart starting to look a bit ugly. Obviously doesn't affect the underlying business, but its interesting speculating what the underlying reason might be, if there is one. |
Yes, I don't disagree. Whilst I think its good for the UK markets for this company to stay listed here given they are growing strongly, I don't think there's too much damage for the UK economy from them being acquired and obviously a nice fat acquisition price helps me personally! |
That's what I'm banking on. The future revenue growth is all USA.So now doubly attractive for a US based marketing SaaS or agency to acquire. The multiples are so much lower than US peers, and the weak GBP makes the acquisition cost cheaper too. Wouldn't be surprised if a bid came in... |
A company with this growth profile, deriving most of it revenues from the US will get gobbled up pretty quickly. |
 System1 forecasts profit ahead of consensus after third-quarter boost
Tue, 21st Jan 2025 13:58Alliance News
(Alliance News) - System1 Group PLC on Tuesday forecast full-year profit ahead of market expectations, accelerated by third-quarter earnings.
The London-based owner of a marketing decision-making platform said total revenue for the third quarter that ended December 31 was GBP10.2 million, up 24% from GBP8.0 million last year.
This brought total revenue for the nine months to date to GBP28.5 million, rising 28% from GBP21.4 million the year before.
System1 won just over 120 new clients during the third quarter, boosting its nine-month figure to just over 230 clients. This was a 14% growth year-on-year from 200 new clients.
Chief Executive Officer James Gregory said: "The third quarter ended well with record platform revenue, strong revenue retention, and an encouraging new business pipeline for the rest of the financial year. We are making good progress with the GBP2 million investment programme announced in our interim results last month which is targeting medium-term revenue growth through building our position in the US and revitalising System1's Innovation proposition."
Looking ahead, System1 expects to achieve full-year revenue in line with current market expectations, citing a company-compiled consensus of GBP37 million. This would be a 21% jump from the GBP30.0 million in revenue reported for financial 2024.
The group also expects to deliver pretax profit of around GBP5 million, 47% higher year-on-year from GBP3.1 million and above the market consensus of GBP4.4 million.
Shares in System1 were up 6.3% at 627.00 each in London on Tuesday afternoon.
By Emily Parsons, Alliance News reporter |
We are still mid earnings upgrade cycle imo . If they do 11m in Q4 the revenue forecast looks very light for fy26 . The rate of growth in the core business has been slightly obscured by the shrinking consultancy business but that has almost shrunk to zero . If UK investors won't give this a full valuation soon , somebody else will . These are the kind of metrics that have Yanks lining up to pay 10 x sales |
Thats a fair point, though its probably not more than say 5-6 people given its innovation rather than the core software development team. Assuming they're hired during the year, its probably a few hundred thousand impact, but underpinning revenue in future years
Anyway, relieved at the announcement this morning given Q2 was weak and the share price weak it too. This takes the multiple to not too far into the twenties for the year finishing in 2 months time and based on decent growth |
They edge up revenue and pbt f/c's for FY26 but EPS is virtually unchanged at 30.83p from 30.78p.
They're really building up a separate Innovation team currently with multiple hires so costs will run a little ahead of revenue as they get established. |
Do they give a forecast EPS for next year? The current PE of c23x should drop significantly. |
Indeed, their assumptions are imo conservative. Replicate Q3 on revenue and GM and they upgrade. |
Thanks. Probably scope for EPS to come in above that too given that they're announcing the £5m figure without having sight of 3 mos of the year - more likely that they've been conservative in assumptions for that final quarter |
Canaccord Genuity, they've upped adj EPS to 26.5p from 23.5p. |
An excellent update , Q3 has been very strong and slightly better than expectations. |
WHo are CG? |
CG upgrade with very conservative assumptions for Q4. Good chance of a further upgrade after YE. |
Wouldn't be at all surprised to see an 11m Q4, which would make FY revenue 39.5m , and at least another 20% PBT upgrade. Management keep under promising and over delivering . |
Nice update. The share price has been a bit weak recently so hopefully this puts a floor under it as a minimum.Great that they know they're going to beat expectations despite only having 9 months figures in the bag |
Clear step change in rate of new client wins. Suggests another year of brisk growth to come. New client win numbers over last few quarters, latest to oldest: 120, 85, 75, 60+, 60+. Stronger USD this year also more fuel to the ont acceleration, given the high gross margin and the fixed costs mainly in GBP.Overall, patient holders for the next 12 months can expect further forecast beats IMO.(I hold in the Boon Fund) |
Great update again . Hate to sound like a broken record but the full year revenue forecast 'at least in line with expectations' looks very conservative again, implying a flat quarter for a business that is firing on all cylinders . As we've seen before when the top line beats , the drop through to the bottom line is spectacular. The increase in client win rate in Q3 is very notable and bodes well for continued rapid growth ... |
Good trading update. Outlook statement says they are "at least in-line with expectations." That sounds like a cautious "we might beat expectations by a little bit" |
If you are a believer in gaps closing there is 530 from early July 24. |
Well done Lewis , not your usual value stock but I think you're right this will be on a single digit PE by the time we see next year's numbers |
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