Synairgen Share Discussion Threads

[peachie 74] 30/5/2020 17:09

The fact it’s safe is a major de risk factor in the share price. And it’s effectiveness within the respiratory tract on suppressing the damage via viral infection is pretty much proven. Let’s hope Covid 19 plays ball !

[nobbygnome] 30/5/2020 17:01

>> Waterloo

I see what you mean. Yes all the safety data from the other indication should decrease any concerns the regulators may have. SNG001 has been given to lots of patients with no safety issue so that is not one of my concerns.

[waterloo01] 30/5/2020 16:57

Nobby, thanks, I wasn't suggesting it's SNG's use in MS, just that the class of drug (INFA's)and separately the method of delivery (nebuliser) are both in approved use, so it's not about trying a completely new compound and delivery system, just showing that it works, how well it works and in whom and is it safe (and so far so good on that front).

[nobbygnome] 30/5/2020 16:31

>> waterloo

You are correct that interferon beta is used in MS but it is given iv. So SNG001 as it is inhaled would not be suitable for that indication as not enough would reach the blood and anyway it's a much lower dose from memory.

However, as you say the risk reward is good at whatever price people bought at recently, although we all know the risk if the results are negative.

[waterloo01] 30/5/2020 16:12

Not sure what you are answering (SA filtered), but the price will partly depend on the market size. All pre suppose it works in reducing the severity of the disease, but I doubt they will be handing these out like 'candy', certainly not until it has had been through much larger confirmatory trials.

However, and i'm sure Nobby or Timbo will correct me, but the class of drugs and delivery are already approved (in MS) so it could move quickly into wider use, if proven effective.

Again all pre supposing it works (and we all remember IMM!) you would imagine the NHS, would want 100k's of doses in stock, awaiting the next outbreak. Leaving manufacture aside, where it really needs a bigger player to scale, it would be a serious number of doses. Multiply that by other jurisdictions......

On that scale, should it be approved, the volume will dictate the price one suspects.

As for market cap, IF it works, will be in blockbuster territory. That is always the risk reward with biotech.

[johnhelme2704] 30/5/2020 16:02

I don’t think we are in disagreement Dave. It’s just a question of timing. We aren’t expecting news until end June and more probably mid to late July. In that time frame Spartan is saying it will drop towards 31p (he says further). His previous calls I have seen on mtro and hur mean I believe him. I will wait to buy. If I miss out then there’s always another one

[sgn001] 30/5/2020 16:01

With all due respect NOBBY, i don't want trump mentioning sng! Anything he has touched or said in the past has come back to bite him!

[nobbygnome] 30/5/2020 15:57

Of course the US is the big market and Trump will be all over this like a rash if the trial result is a clear positive.

[dave444] 30/5/2020 15:50

I think NHS paying 1k per course of treatment and then expanding that to other countries would create huge revenues!Real money - not monopoly!

[spartan attack] 30/5/2020 15:49

John is on the ball. All key are not there, but some are. Shall PM the primaries to you

[spartan attack] 30/5/2020 15:43

What you are missing lads, is markets view on it. I dont mean gerbil money view

Im talking serious money, serious lads that can , shall we say, get a better view than we ever could

And then track their thoughts via their money (not L2 or TR1s)

Its what i like to call, "heads up on future news" analysis lol

[dave444] 30/5/2020 15:40

Without a doubt!To my mind this is hugely derisked

[sgn001] 30/5/2020 15:39

If COPD trials are successful then that will be huge for covid as others have said, its fundamentally the same attack on the lungs. Early treatment will be proven as we get the results of the home trials and hospital trials around the same time in july.

[dave444] 30/5/2020 15:27

John go for it - I suggest you short the pants off it!!!!!!

[johnhelme2704] 30/5/2020 15:25

hxxps://www.tradingview.com/symbols/LSE-SNG/technicals/
If you look at the technicals we broke down thru 45.8 on Friday. Next resistance is 31p. In the absence of news I anticipate Joseph (aka spartan attack) is probably correct. I have come across him on 2 other boards (metro and hurricane) and he has been uncannily correct. So I always go cautiously when he arrives on a board
Gla

[spartan attack] 30/5/2020 15:06

Its what im banking on. Just dont want an SNG one lol

[hazl] 30/5/2020 15:01

Right go enjoy your weekend now.
It's glorious out there.

Don't forget ....there could always be that one unexpected announcement....

[spartan attack] 30/5/2020 13:55

Over the next two weeks, i expect it to lose another 50% share price value

2 weeks.....i wont have much to say on down days. No point others saying much on up days

the aggregate of the ups/downs over two weeks, worth at least 50% less

imo

31p will need assessing alright

[spartan attack] 30/5/2020 13:53

Phase one of that is passed re 55/56

Now its all about speculators blaming profit takers and such

So what price, the whole market accepts fundamental expectation kill?

[spartan attack] 30/5/2020 13:51

IF you have a distressed seller...it will lead to a distressed market/instrument. Very few buy during a holder with gun to own head.

This is not a distressed cycle...its very calculated. Its just enough distribution, not to spook its total market.

Just on a good scale, to keep buyers seeing value, and allow higher percentage distribution. Obviously you need buyers for that, and must control the sentiment

SO MARK MY WORDS

When it hits their, or whoever, cut off price,

this tanks hard on a given morning open

Not really the company's fault on this one. Its just natural or, atypical in the scenario.

That drop wont be fundamental (20%+)

But what price, the share price - to accept, its all fundamentally changed on expectation? Where can you write off profit takers and shareholders possibly needing to dump?

At what price has the market said - "we dont expect it here"?

[dave444] 30/5/2020 13:48

I doubt it has much further to fall as they will want a profit

[wetdream] 30/5/2020 13:41

The current questions that, to my mind remain unanswered, relate to the share price and the major shareholders.

We have three major shareholders : Lansdowne, Link and Licht ( the Three Ls....).
The latter two apparently continuing to hold, while the former, a distressed seller - again, apparently, steadily selling down its holding.

How distressed they actually are remains to be seen (although they’ve also been selling out of other stocks like DDDD). Will they continue selling down to and perhaps below the 35p Placing price? At what point are they obliged to issue their next TR1 form? Would they be sellers if they weren’t ‘distressed217;?

Over the last two months, around 200m shares have been traded. Where have they come from? I guess some have been sold and bought back. So we have buyers and hopefully holders in the 40-50p range.

Imho the co. (and the sp) has done relatively well to survive Griffths’s sell-out and the steady algorithmic trading since end March. Probably no surprise that, with the delay to the results, the sp’s finally heading down to the Placing price.

[nobbygnome] 30/5/2020 13:40

Yes hopefully everyone knows and understands the risks here. There is a real downside risk but as you say a reasonably good chance of us all holding the golden ticket.