Synairgen Share Discussion Threads

[amaretto1] 30/5/2020 11:13

Same with GDR ...I'm certain it's the next NCYT

[amaretto1] 30/5/2020 11:12

Big money in here

[amaretto1] 30/5/2020 11:12

They could turn at any point !!

[spartan attack] 30/5/2020 11:11

And i can assure you - in a stock like this, id either

1. have bought low and be long out
or
2. Shorting the bail

[amaretto1] 30/5/2020 11:11

U didn't look outside the box !!!

[amaretto1] 30/5/2020 11:10

Shorting pharmacy company's in phase 2 Without insider information....Ticket to poor houseOnly thing you are going on is July time scale. Very intelligent of u.

[spartan attack] 30/5/2020 11:10

Il even help you AM

5 books running. Total 35 in them

11 are running in the red. Re current loss running balances

11. .... may come good before stopped out. May not. Dunno

But as long as aggregate is good - thats all you need

[amaretto1] 30/5/2020 11:08

This is the only placebo tested product ! U can't buy time.

[spartan attack] 30/5/2020 11:07

Short market is pretty easy in this sub sector

basically short 10. 9 assured to fail to be first. Most likely ten

But there you go

[amaretto1] 30/5/2020 11:07

U have gone stupid....U have been calling the DOW down since under 20,000 !!!Unbelievable result.

[spartan attack] 30/5/2020 11:05

myst, looking at this subsector globally, how many are in it? How many are working on it?

How many will succeed? More important, who will succeed first?

Based on those probabilities, your now entering the entity risk scenario of 0.0001% success

[myst1] 30/5/2020 11:02

On average, if there was just over a 30% chance of each trial being positive, there would be a 100% chance of just one being positive (based on probability).

Surely just one being positive would make the current Market cap too low?

My feeling is that 30% chance is very conservative based on the fact that maybe we only need to show safety and some minor success to obtain approval in these desperate times? RM has already inferred in his latest interview that if there were any safety issues, they wouldn't have progressed to the home trial.

On a risk / reward basis, that is why I remain invested.

[sainvestor] 30/5/2020 11:02

You clearly have your views and strategy so as I said good luck to you.I'm leaving this one for a few weeks. I'll directly post you whatever happens. haha.

[spartan attack] 30/5/2020 11:01

evidence on these threads saInvestor

look where im bullish. look where im bearish

Im the same person, but the other users perceptions are basically set by my position.

Amazing difference in views on me - but it all just depends if bull or bear really

[spartan attack] 30/5/2020 11:00

sainvstor, ive no interest in getting to anybody

Trust me, if i arrived here with a different username and bullish view, everybody would be fine

Personally though, i tend to prefer opposite views when im in position

If i was a holder, no point in looking at bull bias analysis . Its the other side of the market that counts, from the day you buy

[dave444] 30/5/2020 10:58

I guess I will just have to filter the ones that respond to him myself

[sainvestor] 30/5/2020 10:50

I'm with you on that. I'm not sure who would disagree?However on this occasion the analysis bares little relevance as they will not have any indication as to how the double-blind trial is proceeding. COPD results earlier than expected. Finally the home trial with a handpicked subset of people.Bottom line is me, you and the market doesn't know the outcome of the trials which this is wholly dependant on. If I'm wrong, I'm wrong. That's life and it's only money. I win more than I lose so I'll take this on the chin. Anyone invested here for anything other than knowing only results can save this will get caught out. I wish you the best of luck with anything you invest in, short or whatever. You'll never get to me as I don't care about the opinion of one person but I feel most of your posts are just to wind people up haha. Post your analysis. I don't think anyone will begrudge that.

[nobbygnome] 30/5/2020 10:39

I guess the real point is that if all 3 trials are positive, SNG001 has the potential to be a massive drug. The current market cap doesn't reflect this potential although clearly it is difficult to assess the real chance of 3 yess!

[spartan attack] 30/5/2020 10:38

saInvestor30 May '20 - 10:17 - 8217 of 8223
0 2 0
What happens to all your analysis if the results are positive? 3 sets of data due and countless scientists stating we are easing too soon.

....................

Well simple answer. I lose. Ditto the bulls if they are wrong too obviously

Think you miss the point though. i dont invest in what i think. I Invest/Trade/Sell/Short - based on what market thinks.

[hazl] 30/5/2020 10:31

Nobby no need to apologise.
These things are clearly a moveable feast.
There are so many factors that influence any of these things.

[nobbygnome] 30/5/2020 10:29

>> hdc

It all depends which trials are positive. Clearly if the hospital trial is positive and it gets expedited approval as I expect, then it will be priced on the basis of the use in an acute setting. In the short term that will be the main source of revenue, although I acknowledge the pricing will have to be carefully managed because of the potential wider use for patients at home. In the medium to long term I suspect the main use will remain in the hospital for a whole plethora of serious viral respiratory infections such as flu. One thing is for sure it is easier to start high and lower it than the other way round.

[hazl] 30/5/2020 10:28

A very sensible post saInvestor.

Patience has always been a problem for the majority of investors.
Interestingly,shorters have (amusingly) been caught out on the various Virus stocks as their ebb and flow has been especially difficult to read.

The mistake they have made, is treating these like any stock, that has its natural ups and downs, instead of considering,that this phenomenon is still here,it's global, and finding some medical solution is both imperative and urgent.

IMO

[nobbygnome] 30/5/2020 10:23

>> SPQStrader

Yes I acknowledged I was wrong with June because they took much longer than I expected to recruit the last few patients. I took the fact that some of the sites closed to mean that recruitment had finished but clearly it hadn't.

So apologies if I inadvertently mislead people.

[141jaffa] 30/5/2020 10:21

Did anyone have any thoughts on the home trial pack ? The nebuliser is quite different....??? I can't see if those boxes are branded, but I had discounted SNG producing their own delivery system on the grounds of cost, but did note there are companies that do this. VEC are one such company in the UK. Any views ??