Synairgen Share Discussion Threads

[s120896] 24/5/2020 08:13

Some interesting info. hxxps://www.thelancet.com/journals/ebiom/article/PIIS2352-3964(20)30176-6/fulltext

[nobbygnome] 24/5/2020 07:33

>> foreverfalling

There are various results' scenarios but if we get a clear positive, I would expect the price to open at something like £2-2.50. After all what is a company worth which has a potent treatment for the worst pandemic in a couple of generations! So although yes the risk would be largely gone, you will be paying an awful lot more for those shares IMHO......

[lauders] 24/5/2020 04:23

Polaris Capital joined as a shareholder during the last fundraiser to the best of my knowledge. In April they mentioned SNG here:

Q: And what about the second set of drugs in clinical trials?

GP: These are anti-inflammatory agents. In patients who unfortunately experience a more serious infection, the immune system can, in simple terms, go out of control in what is described as a cytokine storm. This can lead to serious lung damage and a poor outlook for the patient. Actemra and Kevzara are currently used to treat rheumatoid arthritis which is an autoimmune disease.They target a cytokine called Interleukin 6 (IL6) which is released as part of this cytokine storm. These drugs have been used in patients with positive reports and the companies are running trials as we speak to see if these two drugs are effective. Synairgen, a UK-based biotech company, is starting a trial using their development candidate which is inhaled Interferon Beta, designed to regulate antiviral defences in the lungs particularly in patients considered the most at risk from COVID-19. Data from these studies with these drugs are due in the next two to three months.

I also don't recall seeing this but it was no doubt shared at some point:

My view

Of course, we’ve this problem that no one at all currently knows whether the drug is going to work like people think it might. We face uncertainty here, not just risk.

And yet, we have a drug that is at least good enough to trial on humans. For the disease du jour, meaning that if it is effective at all, it will have near no problems with licencing and won’t have to spend much on marketing. The company is also though that process of testing.

It’s highly likely that the company will also benefit from streamlined approval – assuming any of that effectiveness.

So, yes, it’s a high risk that the clinical effectiveness exists at all. But all of the other usual problems have been swept away.

The downside here is that it’s a bust in that it doesn’t treat the infection. The upside is that it might – and also that near all of the other barriers to completion have been swept away. The company is financed, and the regulatory apparatus is primed to be helpful to it.


The investor view

This is obviously significantly speculative, and none of us can possibly know how it’s going to perform in those trials. Yet, given all of the other issues, it’s worth a speculative punt. A small amount from the tail end of the portfolio, certainly nothing more than a percent or so of total holdings.

I concur with the Sunday Times – Synairgen stock is a Buy in modest quantities given the risks.

The share price at the time of the above on 2nd April was around the levels we are at now. Since then the share price has spiked above 70p twice! Third time lucky? Will it ever hold above 70p? Answers to come over the next few weeks!

[coxypete] 23/5/2020 23:40

A fair point - any rise post trial results will then have further questions around, production, scale up and sales etc. And so should still be able to join party. Personally have held in for now - was tempted to take a quick gain when we hit 60s beginning of the week as pattern pre-results has been showing - but didn't have the nerve and pondered too long - as was thinking around home test announcements etc. For now just holding.

[foreverfalling] 23/5/2020 23:09

Any thoughts on their being a strong case of waiting for results before investing any more here? Likely miss out on 50% rise when a positive RNS drops but massively derisked and would likely press on from that point to do another 2-300% in months to follow...

[hazl] 23/5/2020 20:35

Ha sorry I thought you were talking about SNG DAVE!
Haven't any of the others now .
But waiting with interest here.

had to edit as it came out wrong!

I'm still hopeful for SNG.

[finster007] 23/5/2020 20:31

Always interesting to continue reading here guys, I am very glad we continue to maintain the levels in the 50’s as it keeps giving me a chance to top up at every opportunity.

Our time is coming hopefully, happy we are out of the sights of the annoying twitter rampers, well for now at least until some more RNS’s hit...

Nobby - Hope you are enjoying some fine red this long weekend!

[amaretto1] 23/5/2020 20:24

Thanks for feed backGo to there thread... my thoughts exactly ...Got a feeling of what's happening in Manx

[nobbygnome] 23/5/2020 20:03

I agree with dave I'm afraid. Affimers are undoubtedly good as assay reagents but due to management dithering completely unproven as a potential treatment. Consequently, the current market cap is completely ridiculous IMHO.... particularly when you compare it with a company like SNG. BWTFDIK.....

[dave444] 23/5/2020 19:59

Fact not jealousy!

[hazl] 23/5/2020 19:54

jealousy will get you nowhere dave 8-)

[dave444] 23/5/2020 19:41

Overhyped and ramped stock with no sales or guarantee of sales

[amaretto1] 23/5/2020 19:28

What's your thoughts on AVCT ?

[judijudi] 23/5/2020 18:22

I always remember Richard saying:

“This is our time”

[peachie 74] 23/5/2020 17:37

The fact they could produce the first placebo test positive result would be massive. Especially against the background of recent claims that soon get shown to have no/minimal significance

[aquilla] 23/5/2020 16:09

This tracker for covid 19 vaccine and drug developments which includes live updates on vaccine and therapeutic drug developments might be useful:

[nobbygnome] 23/5/2020 15:21

The point about SNG getting their head down and getting on with it is a very good one. I could be wrong but I suspect they might produce the first placebo controlled result for a drug treating Covid 19. They had certain advantages because the drug was already in trials for a very similar indication but nevertheless they expedited the trial very quickly!

[best1467] 23/5/2020 14:54

I think your spot on ref Vigorous Inclusion Criteria without looking back I’m sure it was Mentioned in connection with the AstraZeneca deal as a stumbling block

[141jaffa] 23/5/2020 14:37

"Treating Mild Coronavirus Cases Could Help Save EveryoneActing before or very soon after an infection is the best way to handle most acute viral diseases. Why aren't we focusing on that with Covid-19?"Yesterday's New York Times OpinionNo mention of SNG, but I think while the other big players are grabbing headlines and peddling "forward statements continually......SNG have their head down getting on with the solution

[141jaffa] 23/5/2020 14:31

I think the hosp. trial was needed anyway as the home arm presumably can't include as many bio markers eg sputum / bloods. The fact it's taken time to get 100 suggests to me that they have been vigorous in applying inclusion criteria to only find pt.s it might benefit.I hope for evidence of efficacy which I hope they might be able to extrapolate to intervention times too, since this focus attention into the next primary care arm

[waterloo01] 23/5/2020 14:26

If it achieves a significant improvement in the viral load in hospital patients (and they must all be pre ventilator given the method of delivery)it should be fairly straightforward to demonstrate that in the frequent blood draws.

The assumption, which seems sound, is that any reduction in viral load will be of benefit to patients. Having seen some articles with further details of the damage COVID seems to cause to the lungs, and other organs, any reduction should also help in any potential longer term damage.

Well that's the hope, and so far almost all published articles appear to back the approach.

Frustrating as it is that nothing has as yet been released, we should see something within the month. Too long for some no doubt, but in the world of drug development, that's fast.

[nobbygnome] 23/5/2020 14:10

And as previously stated it is likely that beta will be better than alpha as an anti viral!

[nobbygnome] 23/5/2020 14:09

Indeed. Post edited .....😳

[timbo003] 23/5/2020 14:07

>>>nobby

re: post 7567




I believe this work used interferon alpha (not interferon beta), otherwise the authors would shortly be receiving some correspondence from Synairgen's IP lawyers I suspect.

But encouraging nonetheless