Surface Transforms Share Discussion Threads

[toby hall] 23/12/2024 22:08

what the advfn charts don't show, is the long term oblique resistance from August of this year..it's kept the price down since the recent rise peaked 05 December.. BUT
last Friday the share price nudged above it and today it opened and closed above.
In my book that's a positive and I took another 1M
Have a great Xmas all

[monster500] 23/12/2024 16:57

Nice blue day.:)

[major courtenay] 23/12/2024 10:00

Thanks. I wouldn’t be surprised if it’s a planning issue then. You’d imagine the local council would be well on side.

[quemaster] 23/12/2024 09:55

I'm not sure why this furnace which is their main capacity constraint keeps getting delayed, in the proposed placing RNS in May they said......................

"Part 1 of Phase 2 is proceeding to plan with all but one of the furnaces to be on site by mid-2024. The last furnace is slightly delayed, not due to an issue with the furnace itself, but due to protracted negotiations regarding the site expansion including the positioning of this last furnace, which have now concluded.

In the 30th September interim results they stated...........................


"Specific upgrade projects to our existing £20m revenue capacity manufacturing equipment are enhancing our current capacity. Our £50m manufacturing revenue programme has also introduced additional capacity across all but one process and is providing much needed resilience, by resolving a key risk from single points of failure. The remaining furnace, which is a capacity constraint, was planned for installation in Q4 2024 but has now moved to a mid-2025 installation.

We continue to draw down from our £13m ERDF loan and are progressing with the investment in the £75m manufacturing revenue capacity programme. First equipment is expected on site during 2025 and will continue throughout 2025 and into 2026."

[major courtenay] 23/12/2024 09:11

Quemaster, or anyone else, do you know the reason why the furnace installation was put back to 2025?

[toby hall] 23/12/2024 08:48

trade 1 sell
2,3 + 4 buy

[major courtenay] 23/12/2024 08:41

At least one of this morning’s sells was in fact a buy.

[thiopia] 22/12/2024 11:59

No point issuing positive update before New Year in any case because after the annus horribilis here there is still likely to be some selling due to end of year window dressing

IF they do have any positive update to issue another issue preventing/delaying it might be requirement from provider re anonymity. IF as mooted by LinkedIn posts GM are helping out by sending in consultants it would make sense them being a provider of funding. They might not want this to be public knowledge as they might be seen as soft touches by other suppliers and/or they don't want competitors to know what they're up to.

Anyway kicking the can down the road works and if they can get away without further raises or minimise extent of further raise the bounce back potential is huge

[smart solution] 22/12/2024 11:09

Very positive...

[monster500] 22/12/2024 10:09

Well now there 8 jobs advertised. Can only be taken as positive signs

[gripfit] 22/12/2024 08:44

Surely there must be some employee with shares who comes on ADVFN ?? If you do ,,, spill the beanz … lol

[rbc1903] 21/12/2024 22:15

There's another 2 ~£50k salary jobs appeared on the Surface Transforms website yesterday.

[thiopia] 21/12/2024 17:52

free stock charts from uk.advfn.com

[quemaster] 21/12/2024 10:57

As far as I know they are at £50m capacity in all parts of the production line except for a CVI furnace that was due to be installed this year but now put back to mid 2025.

[amt] 20/12/2024 21:16

Correct me if I am wrong but I believe capacity is now 50m per annum. So if they can get to 50% capacity at say 60% GM they should be breaking even.

[glavey] 20/12/2024 10:17

One might posit that it's been entirely down to "rumour-buying".
(Sellers have been hardly been 'invisible'...)

[major courtenay] 20/12/2024 09:35

Unless, of course, there’s been a lot of rumour—buying, waiting for this fact, to sell into. There are probably more stale holders waiting for an opportunity to sell this share, than in most. That said, I have bought again.

[soixanteneufdude] 20/12/2024 09:06

Agreed, but still seems like a band aid. My hope is that this is enough cash and expertise injection to keep afloat while they turn around the manufacturing process into a profitable one for all OEMs.

Like you say, if they release confirmation of this, the share price should recover very nicely

[quemaster] 19/12/2024 14:42

Excellent research Paddyrock but I think you may have overestimated the disc cost, the aftermarket discs are more expensive than the price charged for OEM contracts which I believe are about half your estimate but happy to be proved wrong if you got your figures from somewhere else.

[paddyrock] 19/12/2024 14:21

20
November 2024 Derek McTear posts on LinkedIn that he started a new job at ST as a lean coach.

Early December the company starts advertising new posts including a head of continuous improvement which requires them to be a black belt level expert in lean sigma 6 (I'll come back to this).

Last week Richard Redgate posts are LinkedIn that he has taken a job as a lean coach funded by GM to support delivery of discs for their new Corvette ZR1, shortly afterwards he removes reference to this.

This week Derek McTear removes his profile from LinkedIn.

I look into the lean sigma 6 approach shows that GM is a leading exponent of this and have been using it since the 80s including with the suppliers. Looking into ST there is no reference to them using this until the continuous improvement manager was advertised.

A bit of research into the Corvette ZR1 anticipates between 1-1.5k cars per year with delivery starting in the new year. At roughly £10k for a set of discs for a high-end car like that, at 56% margin, that's £5.6-8.4m per year profit just from GMs ZR1.

Given that the ZR1 is their top of the range supercar model they will really want to make sure it gets to customers.

My guess is it's all leads to GM making substantial upfront payments to ST but insisting that they work with their lean coaches in the interim and higher their own lean sigma 6 experts for the long term. They have been telling their coaches to hide their involvement with ST to avoid revealing what's going on behind the scenes.

[bagpuss67] 19/12/2024 13:03

This is what they said on 6 Nov that they were doing:

"....we are reviewing strategic opportunities to bring longer term financial stability to the Company"

Personally I don't think they can trade through without success on this and so IMHO its this or bust and its heading towards now or never for us in this group of equity....

[bagpuss67] 19/12/2024 12:59

Not sure it will be vague, when it comes. IMHO it will be quite decisive either way and my guess is that it needs to be sorted by year end which, if correct, does not leave many business days left....

[major courtenay] 19/12/2024 12:43

I hope so, snd. I see there are nibblers being tempted out again to stem the price decline. Be interesting to see where we are in a month or two. There’s only so long they can go without letting us know vaguely what’s happening.

[soixanteneufdude] 19/12/2024 12:16

Unlikely that they've gone from ST as they'd probably still be on Linked in and looking for work.

More likely that it was considered wise to go under the radar. That post the other week kind of gave the game away about one of the OEMs