Certainly a big seller here, but also huge volume for an Aim stock. Lets hope he's done now. Normally I would have been stopped out by now but gave these a bit more headroom than normal as I think this will bounce eventually. I'll bet a lot of stops have been triggered here. |
 This move down looks like one seller in size who has given the order to Berenberg.
They are sat at 151p on the offer with the other market makers sat at 155p. Similar thing happened at ASTO and it had a pop when the seller (Griffiths) was done. There are currently five market makers sat on the bid at 150p.
Had a go at 151p to see if it can bounce here. If it falls under 150p, I will exit and try again.
I think this move ties in with the trade attempt I had here a short while back when the price was around 177p. There were aload of 500k prints hitting the book making it look like someone was coming in to buy big, but they then turned out to be false prints and were corrected.
The cynic in me wonders whether some were keyed on purpose to make it look like a big buyer was coming in to attract buyers, because it is very evident now that somebody wants out. Nonetheless, it looks worth a watch for a bounce when this seller is cleared.
It could be a forced seller, as per most of the market, unless someone has news? There are alot of these downward moves out there, which are now exacerbated by Trump's tariffs. SUP were trading strongly with that natural divisive stance on Vaping.
I wrote on the BEG board yesterday that the selling in the US could test Trump's pain threshold (he clearly likes to be judged by the market moves) and later on in the day, they have already blinked abit with Lutnick almost being forced by the market selling to make a comment and now some compromise type statements coming out.
It is hard to know how companies are being affected by these tariffs when they keep yo-yo'ing about like this...this country, that country....this amount....oh now...a a pause...oh no pause now....oh now abit more on China.....oh now maybe a compromise and meet in the middle.
Negotiating tactic for some, outright stupidity for others, but that is what we are all dealing with.
Can SUP bounce here?
How much gloom is in the price here. It looks oversold, but hard to call bottoms...especially in this market.
Let's see.
All imo
DYOR |
Keep thinking it will turn. But when?! |
Small caps seemingly unloved at present no matter how good the business model |
Blimey have I missed a profit warning or negative news re vaping Thought I was idiotic selling at 167.5 on Monday |
Without strict enforcement the black market will grow and grow. There's precedence for this in Australia. |
For ref.https://www.vice.com/en/article/vape-black-market-inside-illegal-e-cigarette-industry-uk/Industry insiders revealed to VICE that as many as 40 to 50 percent of vapes in the UK are currently illicit as in, imported illegally and not in compliance with current UK regulations |
My central assumption is government will wait until the ten year study concludes before any further changes. Biggest risk on vapes continues to be the black market in my view. Lack of enforcement initiatives. Difficult to stop illicit vapes taking up to 40-50 percent of vape sales. |
It's the maxime boidin study. Vaping horror as first ever study reveals deadly side effects - heart disease, organ failure, dementia - Mirror Online https://search.app/UNGtJ165YUBdi9MJ6V small sample and not peer reviewed yet. Maxime is credible but no way you could make policy changes on the back of this study. |
Which study? Any link? Thanks |
I'm sure I've seen this short write up somewhere before but nice it's getting traction on aj bell |
https://www.ajbell.co.uk/sharesmagazine/2025-01-30/six-great-small-caps-to-buy-today |
Let's hope we can get a grip on labour and get them voted out |
negative vapes study results over the weekend
god knows why anyone would be surprised that puffing away chemicals into your lungs is a bad idea. I can see labour getting a grip on this before their term is out
Will keep a lid on the valuation here because its still very vapes impacted |
Its probably huit-huit rather than quatre-vingt huit. In my head I read it as eight eight rather then eighty eight. Eight being a lucky number in some cultures.
Numbers are always good for product names as they translate well and rarely have negative meanings. |
 ACTSCap - nice analysis.
Yes, SUP is a high quality growth business led by an enterprising founder and majority shareholder.
They will adapt and pivot to the best opportunities available to them.
Meanwhile, big tobacco need to pivot to NGP's (smokeless).
In BATS most recent results their target is to be >50% revs from NGP's by 2035.
Currently £26bn revs. Smokeless is 17.5% of that.
- £20.685bn combustibles
- £4.5bn smokeless
New categories:
- Vapour - £1.7bn
- Heated products - £0.9bn
- Modern oral (pouches) - £0.8bn
- Traditional oral (gum) - £1bn
In short, they need vapour category to increase significantly.
To do so they will need to add millions of new users.
That will not come organically, it will come through acquisitions.
SUP have no need to sell. The segment is very profitable and the overall SUP business is very profitable, cash generative and unleveraged.
SUP just need to keep converting smokers to vapers. The more customers they have, the more attractive that segment is for big tobacco.
When the price is right I've no doubt they will sell it.
Meanwhile the acquirers are very cash rich and have KPI's that require them to grow the NGP's segment.
People's bonuses at big tobacco will depend on that KPI of growing NGP's. So you can be sure that in time, they will acquire to ensure those KPI's get hit!
No idea how long that will take however. But in the meantime there's a growing, profitable business, paying divi's.
Maybe big tobacco think the point of maximum opportunity is when UK regulations kick in that require all the extra compliance and taxes. But that means another year or two of not hitting their targets.
SUP would do well to acquire more low budget vape companies like Liberty flights in the meantime as they integrate them very efficiently. Or perhaps expand into Europe where they could no doubt expand market share.
Shame their brand name of 88Vape translates to quatre-vingt-huit in French.
Does exactly roll of the tongue. Quick rename to 8-vape and all is good though if you ask me. Huit-vape rolls of the tongue a bit like vite-fait. Has a 'Quick vape' kind of ring to it. Perhaps I'll suggest it to Sandy! |
So you think fairly valued? |
It's valued how it is because the government is likely to keep increasing regulation or tax on vaping. |
Have been looking at Altria's acquisition of NJOY back in 2023 and how it stacks up against Supreme's vaping business. Altria paid $2.75 billion for NJOY, valuing it at 18x revenue even though it wasn't exactly a revenue powerhouse. Supreme's vaping division pulled in £82.8M last year, so even at a basic 2x multiple, that's £165M. At 5x revenue, it's £414M, and if you start thinking in NJOY multiples, you're looking at £1B+ territory.If we consider all the additional verticals within supreme particularly new beverages (typhoo) and soft drinks (clearly drinks) acquisitions, I can't help but feel this is outrageously undervalued. |
Afraid so. Wrong footed.
One of the delayed 500k prints hit after my post. I thought someone was coming in for 500k blocks with three prints of 500k (hoping more would follow to allow the push through 180p), but one 500k print has since hit the book showing as a correction of 500k so it is only two x 500k.
I have just come out of the trade because of that.
Someone has fat fingered the trades so unsure if the data is accurate now.
It now looks like someone has come in for at least one block of 500k (both sides of the trade)...well barring any further corrections.
Eat lettuce with ya fat fingers!
Will keep a watch.
All imo
DYOR |
I just took a look on the London Stock exchange website, it seems just two trades of 500k were done and they were offbook, so someone selling direct to another is how I understand this, so maybe not net incremental demand |
Who comes in for blocks of 500k early on a quiet Friday morning?
Just taken a few here on the back of someone coming in for these blocks of 500k.
Price is consolidating here.
Just interested to see if it can pop through 180p for some short term momentum on the back of the exchanges here.
All imo
DYOR |
Yup 165ish |
Perfect little buying opportunity coming up here again |
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