Supreme Share Discussion Threads

[texaspete2] 17/5/2024 20:20

This looks like a pull back to previous resistance, so hopefully this now becomes support, good volume day too. I've added.

[basem1] 17/5/2024 13:38

150p incoming Weak holders gone new money coming in

[gb904150] 17/5/2024 08:24

Yes, valued like a tobacco stock due to regulatory risk but a much better business.

Tobacco is in decline. Taxes will see to that in the west but in emerging markets they have a more robust and longer term business.

In the west it's a dying industry that needs to diversify into NGP's and meanwhile they have to manage all the lawsuits.

Compare that to SUP which has no legacy/liability business like that. It has a vertically integrated platform that manages multiple sectors well - batteries, lighting, health (vits and supps) and vaping.

SUP have something that is very attractive to big tobacco - multiple vape brands and tens of thousands of loyal customers. Big tobacco has lots of money and needs to diversify into NGP's.

The vape sector is growing so quickly and we've just navigated the most recent regulatory risk.

The next risk is of course a Labour government who will arrive EOY 2024 and will maybe want a battle with vapers. But Labour will want/need the tax revenues and they won't want to annoy millions of voters, so they won't be able to do that much.

At a FPE of around 7 and with 3.5% divi yield I think SUP is a good long term bet.

[adamb1978] 17/5/2024 08:09

Yes and a clear difference here is that SUP's guidance / market comms is excellent so the data is available to be able to back out an ex-vape P&L. Sentiment is against them at the moment but that will turn.

Investing in a company when sentiment is awful can lead to great returns

[simmsc] 16/5/2024 22:09

This is being rated (valued) like a tobacco company (bat, imp). Pe ratios the same. Must be regulatory risk that is a constant drag here. But it shouldn't be rated like that as only part of the business is vape!

[s34icknote] 15/5/2024 14:09

Buy back finished ?

[basem1] 15/5/2024 11:55

You would have to be pretty desperate to sell now given what you could have sold for this last fortnight

[basem1] 15/5/2024 11:53

Have the wheels fallen off Thought I was taking a chance selling at 135.65 on Monday

[texaspete2] 14/5/2024 21:58

Maybe small read across from Luceco today for Supremes lighting business.... Luceco has performed strongly in the first quarter of the year and we are trading comfortably in line with expectations. Key industry metrics are starting to suggest more favourable conditions, and this provides optimism for the second half of the year.

[robbnw] 06/5/2024 22:02

Totally agree Superb prospect

[s34icknote] 03/5/2024 10:17

Eps about 20p ?

[gb904150] 03/5/2024 09:53

Interesting that all of a sudden this one is in demand. Seems like there's a solid buyer.

[basem1] 03/5/2024 08:47

No need to sell here this is going much higher Buy the dips

[basem1] 03/5/2024 08:10

Should be a clear run to around the 153 level and then a small pullback Based on the 3 year chart

[s34icknote] 02/5/2024 18:13

Looks poised to break out !!!

[scubadiverr] 02/5/2024 17:55

It's a bank holiday Monday 6th

[sharw] 02/5/2024 17:30

If closes at or above 137 on Tuesday 7th it will be 2 year high

Oops. Thanks scubadiverr - corrected.

[cheaky monkey] 02/5/2024 17:03

Nice breakout! New 52w high ??

[adamb1978] 29/4/2024 12:50

The dominant shareholder here isnt an issue for me. He's not close to the 75% level whereby he could acquire the company on the cheap by being able to force through special resolutions etc, and if he wants to pay a fair price for the company and take it private, I'm happy to sell him my shares.

In the meantime, his interest and mine should be broadly aligned

[carcosa] 29/4/2024 12:36

Aishah,

Several academic studies have found a positive correlation specifically between founder ownership and equity returns or operating performance metrics for smaller public companies across various markets. The effect tends to be more pronounced for small versus large caps.

Founders with large shareholders are statistically better as investments because companies where founders retain a significant ownership stake tend to have better share price performance on average. This is because founders' interests are more aligned with outside shareholders when they have "skin in the game."

Founders with large equity stakes tend to take a longer-term view in decision making versus professional managers. This can benefit share prices over multi-year periods.

For relatively small market capitalisation companies, the correlation between high founder ownership and better share price performance seems to be stronger based on available research.

For example:

[aishah] 29/4/2024 12:13

The issue here is a dominant shareholder which is probably why there's some reluctance to invest inspite of very good results.

[carcosa] 29/4/2024 11:25

In summary:
Supreme CEO Sandy Chadha discusses the company’s strong financial performance, future prospects, and industry trends in a Q&A session.

Highlights:
- Supreme’s adjusted EBITDA nearly doubled to £38 million, with sales up 44% to £225 million.

- Despite regulatory uncertainty, demand in the vaping industry remains robust, with a shift towards pod systems anticipated after the ban on disposable vapes in April.

- Higher margins are expected with reusable vape cartridges, with plans to manufacture them in the UK.

- Supreme is in a net cash position, considering options like dividends, share buybacks, or strategic acquisitions to utilise cash (preferred option).

- The company’s other divisions, including batteries, lighting, and sports nutrition, are performing well, positioning Supreme for continued growth.

Anyone else thought the VOX video opening/closing sequence, including music, was a version from Proactive Investors?

[brummy_git] 29/4/2024 10:22

After last week's positive yearend trading update (re FY24 EBITDA almost doubling to £38m on sales up 44% to £225m) - CEO Sandy Chadha of FMCG products group Supreme took me thorough what's been driving the record results and upbeat outlook.

[adamb1978] 24/4/2024 18:49

sharw - its difficult for him to say the opposite! I'm not bothered either way - I was responding to the point that private equity would take them out. More likely that it would be the CEO IMO given that, as I said above, he owns >50%.

[sharw] 24/4/2024 18:17

AdamB1978 - taking private keeps on being raised but this is not so - the CEO, who is the largest shareholder, knocked that on the head again and commited to the listing at the last presentation. Listen from here: