Steppe Cement Share Discussion Threads

[wilo101] 19/1/2023 08:51

It will be more than 5p, possibly 6/7 or more.

[return_of_the_apeman] 19/1/2023 08:27

I keep reading the trading statement and although it sounds like a profit warning, I still think there will be a 5p divi. Just have to wait until mid April to know more. Hopefully those with stop losses set from stocko will give a top up opportunity

I can wait :-)

[renewed1] 13/1/2023 15:16

Talking pints. Apparently Mr Beer helped set up the Kazakhstan legal system back in 20??.

[zangdook] 13/1/2023 09:56

Farage was talking to Mr Beer?

[renewed1] 13/1/2023 09:36

A guy on the farage programme (GB News ) last night....a Mr Beer a legal/financial expert of some kind with some body in Kazakhstan. Saying what an opportunity for British business the country is ....9th biggest country in the world ...the british legal system the basis of their legal system. Returns of 20% plus. Huge future potential!!

[wind dancer] 13/1/2023 09:26

Chill.
I didn’t see that statement in the RNS!

[santar] 13/1/2023 09:04

WD - “a significant increase in production costs in 2023”, when presumably this will be offset by a significant increase in selling prices?

[aleman] 13/1/2023 08:09

Kazahk inflation has peaked near 20% 3 times in the last two decades and this looks like being the 4th.



I think it's about to peak again since interest rates have risen quite a lot and a large month to month jump in CPI between Feb and March last year will drop out of the annual change in a couple of months, bringing it down a bit. Meanwhile, recent month to month inflation seems to be moderating in line with most other countries so further rate rises look unnecessary. Whilst the Tenge has a history of constant easing against the $, it has actually risen slightly since July, which will probably help push CPI below 1% per month in H1. Most probably they'll pivot to easing interest rates in a few months.




I'm curious why inflation is being mentioned when the worst of it was clearly in H1 for consumers, though that might not reflect inflation as it affects STCM. Regardless, the outlook for inflation looks to be generally improving in Kazahkstan as it is everywhere else.

[wind dancer] 13/1/2023 07:45

I’m just saying that “ a significant increase in production costs” is noteworthy.
So inflation was 15%. In itself it has risen by a third.It maybe that inflation is measured in December when revenue is an average for the year, which maybe fine but non the less the warning is in the RNS.

[stun12] 12/1/2023 17:37

Santar, indeed. They seem to have proven their way to manage the constant almost-crisis things well in the past.

[santar] 12/1/2023 17:23

WD - there is always a lag between changes in inflation and cost and sales price increases due to purchase and sales contracts/frame/wage agreements in place. I am encouraged by revenue +12% and believe any cost inflation impact on profit should be small.

[gary1966] 12/1/2023 16:37

You better take a look at the interim accounts then WD where inflation was 15% if you really think that.

[wind dancer] 12/1/2023 14:51

Inflation 20%+ Revenue 12%+ !
Does not bode well for maintaining the divi at the 2022 level imo.

[eggbaconandbubble] 12/1/2023 12:50

Mattjos, I think I might put a train ride in Kazakstan on my bucket list!!!

[eggbaconandbubble] 12/1/2023 12:48

Look at it this way - both Abu Hanza and Crighton-Ward have been topping up recently and I bet they have a good insight into things. More so than us minor punters.

That gives me an added air of confidence about this company

[mattjos] 12/1/2023 09:51

Presume the Russia situation causing some additional loading on rail networks in Kaz & other neighbouring countries hence the 'logistical difficulties' Steppe refer to.
Busy, busy in Kazakhstan and new railways use a lot of cement

[danmart2] 12/1/2023 07:23

It will be worthwhile monitoring the Kazak economy metrics over the next 3-6 months

[andydaf] 12/1/2023 06:54

Even though i dont trade my Steppe shares there are some bull and bear arguments here,Bear points,its in kazakhstan,its ex growth in so much as they dont wish to add capacity,small market cap,free float held mostly by private investors,compete lack of ir,if your looking for a ten bagger quick look elsewhere and however writes the rns doesnt like to waste his ink.Bull points,Kazakh goverment forward thinking,subsidised mortgages,eurasia one of the upcoming regions of the world,its a cement factory which have long lives,good major shareholders and management,dividend policy to return most fcf,if like me,famous last words you hold them in your sipp and just collect the dividends they are perfect.As a get rich scheme fast i am not so sure.And for those who complain about ir we should remenber its a cement factory in kazakhstan and not lafarge.CPAC in peru has 3cement factories capacity 4.5 million tons and it s market cap is circa450million.To my mind steppe circa cap 100million is cheap.As always GLA

[mattjos] 11/1/2023 23:50

Leo, that's a fair point & accepted.
My investment timeline here may well be longer than others .. I hold predominantly in my SIPP, a few in my ISA and don't attempt to trade my holdings in this company.
No matter the short-term gyrations, the mkt cap does not reflect the true value of the business assets and the ability of those assets to create a decent profit and good cash flow. This will not go unnoticed by the global cement majors, particularly the limestone reserves & so i continue to sit tight, adding each month & await the inevitable M&A activity.
Kazakh cement consumption remains far below that of other more developed economies and unless/until we invent a more cost-effective & broadly adopted alternate construction substance, the cement consumption trend should remain upwards in Kaz & so support Steppe forward growth.
The stated intent to return near-all free cash to investors is good enough for me.
Might be boring for some but, slow & steady compound growth often wins the race.

[leopoldalcox] 11/1/2023 23:47

To be clear Mattjos, I think your post as a whole has good points, but the idea that anyone that has sold has done so due to a lack of understanding is what I take issue with. We're all working with the limited information we have, and need to make decisions based on that. I have not sold today, but would be very interested to hear the reasoning from those that have. Comments that suggest sellers are badly researched will not encourage that

[leopoldalcox] 11/1/2023 23:25

Mattjos, seems like we're talking across topics here. You are discussing the long term prospects for the company. Others are discussing the immediate impact to profitability and therefore be more immediate dividends. Even if the company is well placed within the sector, it can still suffer short term hits to profitability.Note that the Kazakh base rate started 2022 at around 10% and is currently at around 17%. This will affect investment decisions and the wider economy.As with any company there are bull points and bear points. I have a decent chunk of my portfolio here but would like to understand both bull and bear arguments. I think it is beneficial to all shareholders. To have a bull only board is unhelpful

[leopoldalcox] 11/1/2023 23:19

Fair point Gary. I'll have a look at the interims again. Would be a good starting point to estimate