Steppe Cement Share Discussion Threads

[doc_oj] 04/10/2024 10:26

@aleman: we are at what looks like the lowest price ever - I have quite a few here and wondering whether to average down but it literally looks like this is going belly up - time to be brave or not :)

[aleman] 04/10/2024 10:11

Only about a week away from the Q3 update, which coincides with what looks quite likely to be a record Q3 nationally for cement output, and David Crichton-Watt's family have just added 700k shares.

[doc_oj] 04/10/2024 10:00

where do we think the bottom is here? worth adding or not?! any thoughts? spread is the tightest in a very very long time

[aleman] 03/10/2024 09:06

Kazakhstan composite PMI rose from 50.0 to 51.8. Hopefully, this means recent cement market strength will continue, following the record national cement output in August - both for the month of August and any month.

[1knocker] 24/9/2024 09:19

Spawny, the ability to distinguish, divine intervention (or even luck) from brilliance is the magic ingredient which avoids the pitcher going once to often to the well !!

[spawny100] 23/9/2024 12:18

Lol thanks knocker. No I would never do it again ever. I think I had some sort of divine intervention with that investment!

[1knocker] 23/9/2024 12:06

Spawny, you must have taken a bigger position than I ever would on a stock like this - or on any single stock!
Glad to hear it worked out for you, but don't try it too often!

[golden prospect] 23/9/2024 10:30

In a few weeks time we shall see if Q3 confirms STCM is a great recovery play





and liking the 2m tonnes by 2025

[tigerbythetail] 20/9/2024 16:17

Chris - no offence, but I think you may need to up the quality of your research.

[aleman] 20/9/2024 15:05

Taken private? When? It's only 3 weeks away from the Q3 update which now looks likely to be quite strong, given the way the national market has gone. It's always been a very cyclical business. Get used to it. They've kept investing through the recent leaner time - at a cost - and have increased capacity. That plus the build up of stock to sell into a now strengthening market could actually put it in a sweet spot.

[zangdook] 20/9/2024 14:56

Why would it be diluted?

[chriss911911] 20/9/2024 14:54

Well at over 30m GBP, market cap, for a businesses losing money turning over 75m,USD, it is not cheap at 14p given the 0.22bn shares in issue, especially now loss making and sales continue to fall and even if they do make any more seems to be a trial to try and return it to shareholders, this will get taken private for a fraction of the price, or get diluted into the Abiss, and consigned to yet another AIM share that loses money, when the rest of market has recently hit all time highs, it truly is the pit of investing, why anyone would just keep digging a bigger hole in it, beats me.

[aleman] 20/9/2024 14:34

Here we go - national cement output has updated after missing out last month:

July 1.37M tonnes +3% (v July 23) and narrowly missing the July record

Aug 1.41M tonnes +6% (V Aug 23) and a new August record

so quite possibly headed for a new Q3 record nationally....

Typically that would mean a strong market, and leading to strong pricing with a slight delay. Hopefully, that's STCM's extra stock mostly shifted into improving prices.

[mattjos] 20/9/2024 14:14

cement cycles do take time to turn ... despite the disappiinment of the H1 figures, the company looks to have positioned itself well for a pickup in H2 and that pickuo already looks to have started.
Dont believe it is right to so quickly consign to this to the bin

[tigerbythetail] 20/9/2024 12:59

Hi Aleman!
Basically, I agree with you. The corner has likely already been turned here. It's just that people aren't seeing it yet. The company's own communications could be better in this regard.
I get all the talk about the past and when was the best moment to sell, etc. But the only truly significant question is whether STCM is worth more or less than the current share price today. I'm willing to bet that STCM is worth considerably more than the current cap.

[dodger777] 20/9/2024 12:43

What happened to all this lovely dividends, gone the same way as the share price.
Imo there’s shenanigans going on for a long time by the major investor. No doubt imo, this will disappear from the stock market soon.

[aleman] 20/9/2024 12:43

The company said at the H1 update that it expected to exceed last year's 1.63M tonnes after selling only 0.72M tonnes in H1.. So it expects to do at least 0.91M tonnes in H2, helped by the new tactic of selling down a much larger stock build. They did 1.69-0.84=0.85M tonnes in H2/2021, 1.67-0.84M=0.83M in H2/2022 and 1.63-0.75=0.88M in H2/2023. Are we actually headed for record sales volume in H2/2024?

[golden prospect] 20/9/2024 12:12

5 key account holders represent 75%


Sellers today almost certain to pass to the key holders (probably the Perez camp)

[chriss911911] 20/9/2024 11:47

not a surprise, and no reasons to invest on such a dire update, it will just continue it's consistent fall, oh well it's Friday, seems everything I revisit today is a no, so perhaps I should call it a day early. I will have to find some other use for the money, but putting into an incinerator is not one of them

[spawny100] 20/9/2024 11:25

Maybe I did knocker but I can't remember. Thankfully I got out of these a long time back when the dividend policy first started to look somewhat shaky. Commiserations to holders here.My time in TXP proved my strategy of getting out either while the going's good or at the first sign of trouble. I was buying from 10p or so upwards and exited most of my positions at 160+. It paid off the mortgage and gave me a lump to start building a dividend portfolio. Had I carried on holding I'd still have a mortgage, no dividend portfolio, be sitting on a large loss from my initial purchases in a share that appears to be going nowhere fast but with a general downtrend.

[aleman] 20/9/2024 11:15

Well, the underlying picture seems to have already turned as of June but the increased (higher than I expected) H1 stock-build has made the numbers look bad again. $5m stock ($8m revenue?) will be a huge boost to profit and cashflow if they shift it in H2 at higher prices , as planned, before bad weather in Q4 slows sales. Remember, they stated higher FY sales than 2023 in a market expected to be flat but H1 was -4%. Hopefully, it will show as an "unexpected" boost to sales in the Q3 update in 3 weeks. We need to get used to bigger seasonal swings after withdrawal from southern Kazakh markets due to high rail costs. I presume today's sellers have not got used to the idea.

The Company's market share for cement in H1 2024 was 13.6%. The Company lost market share in the first quarter as there was an increased focus on the central and northern Kazakhstan markets which are less active due to climatic conditions. However, due to improvements in production, the Company currently carries a significantly higher inventory than in 2023. The Company managed to increase sales volumes in early June and increased its market share to 17% at the end of H1 2024. Sale volumes in 2024 are expected to be above those of 2023.

[1knocker] 20/9/2024 11:06

Spawny, spot on. I wish you had reminded me of that truth a while back! Perhaps you did, and I wasn't listening.

I would add another. When a stock is cratering, don't buy more unless and until you are sure the corner has been turned. it is impossible to calculate bottoms, so much better to buy above the bottom when a stock is rising than to buy a falling stock in the hope that the bottom has been reached.

And ignore the price at which you bought in. Every purchase is a new investment whether it is a top up or a first purchase. If you would not buy if you did not already own a holding, don't buy. The concept of 'averaging down' is a licence to lose money; the only question to ask yourself is whether you think the odds are favourable of making a profit on a purchase at the current price. The price (be it higher or lower) at which an earlier purchase was made is entirely irrelevant to that question.

As to the future here, I wonder whether the company will be taken private, at a knock down price.

[golden prospect] 20/9/2024 09:40

TbtT : Last year H1 results 19.09.2023 and Director Dealing RNS 20.09.2023

The Q3 update is not for financial results so guess close period rules do not apply.

[spawny100] 20/9/2024 09:36

STCM is a great example of why it's very often sensible with AIM shares to have an exit strategy at a small loss as opposed to hanging on for grim life watching the price dribble down incessantly.

[tigerbythetail] 20/9/2024 09:31

I'll just say I'm looking forward to the Q3 update.
(By the way, won't the CEO be in a closed period ahead of them right now? But I'll nibble a few shares myself).