Stanley Gibbons Share Discussion Threads

[ukhawk] 30/7/2004 16:10

Articles about "baby boomers" in every magazine you read. Millions more over 50 these days, and all dusting off their stamp collections in the loft.
(seem to remember reading that on the Hornby bb a couple of years ago, lol)

[kael] 30/7/2004 16:07

The interim report does seem cleverly put together (maybe im reading too much into it), subtle hints of the future but at the same time gives nothing away. Anyway Im not too up on director speak so maybe somebody with a bit more experience with reports would care to post their view?

[nurdin] 30/7/2004 16:02

The more I read the interims the more excited I am getting.The pent up potential is enormous....for the reasons I have already aired.But the margins will have to recover to atleast last years.Having replenished their stock now and with the Stamp Index rising the second half should see gross margins recover to over 53% in H2.
I still say full year eps closer to 7 rather than 6.

[ukhawk] 30/7/2004 15:56

Ok siesta over.

Expect IC, Shares mag, Tips.com, FT, etc, to all to be saying "we told you so". They love to mention their winners !

[kael] 30/7/2004 14:18

I expect Peter Temple to be screaming from the rooftops about Stanley GIbbons LOL.

Going over those sums that were done earlier, 6p EPS is definitely achievable if current performance is maintained, so it begs the question: Are Seymour Pierce going to upgrade?

They beat estimates last year and did not receive an upgrade - surely its worthy of one now?

[nurdin] 30/7/2004 14:16

Hi mad4IT...sold half PGB at 60p..now itching to get back..look really cheap.
SGI...just come back from a shopping trip for wifes birthday...nice tick up there lol
(blown profits on pressies too :o( )

[gregory0106] 30/7/2004 14:15

Popgunn - would be interested to hear your bearish scenario - always good to try and get ahead or at least understand what the MM's are up to.

Some bigger buys seen today - 10K & 20K. I recall when I bought my 2,500 I had to talk to the dealers at comdirect as this very small order exceeded their limits!!

Short supply of stock could help see this motor early nest week when the wider audience see's the special div which will be well covered in weekend press.

[mad4it] 30/7/2004 13:13

popgunn

There's nothing wrong with asking questions of fellow investors, (it's how I learnt), plus we're all in it together after all. ;)

NB: Please don't let my musings influence your investing decision, It's just my opinion. I can also see a slightly more bearish scenario that the MMs might try on the run up to the XD date, but this will probably depend on buy and sell volumes closer to that date. I'll expand on this if I see signs of it occuring.

[popgunn] 30/7/2004 12:56

Thanks again - feel a bit of a div (ho ho) for asking but am now the wiser.

[ukhawk] 30/7/2004 12:48

Agree entirely, if they drop this by 9% XD then a lot of buyers will come in for it. Some won't even realise the reason !!!

[mad4it] 30/7/2004 12:44

popgunn

fwiw, I intend to hold my shares for the divi, then buy more shares on the XD day, or soon after (depending on how the MMs play it) when we'll undoubtedly see a fall of some kind. This is a quality company and I think any retracement on XD day will be short lived and should present a good buying opportunity for existing and fresh investors.

Hi xdavid - As you can see, the chart breakout, backed up by excellent results, was the catalyst for me to take a longer term trading position, despite the generally prohibitive spread on SGI. I shall execute my strategy as discussed above, unless I see a better way to maximise my profit.

[xdavid] 30/7/2004 12:42

Hi mad4IT, nice to get a different perspective. I had always thought SGI was beyond trading due to it's spread but this is now recently more in the 2-3% range so a lot better than it used to be. All good for liquidity = good for consolidation.

[kael] 30/7/2004 12:38

If you shorted SGI before the ex divi date you would have to PAY the dividend (not a good idea)

With regards to the first part, what you say makes sense, but you have to consider the spread and the mm's will utilize this.

[popgunn] 30/7/2004 12:37

Gengulphus - perfect explanation, thanks very much.

The other question then is whether you could for a short term profit buy the ex-div drop, foresaking the divi in return for a lower price, and sell on the rise back to the cum-div price. That assumes the price rises as predictably as it falls, which may or may not be the case.

Alternatively, if you had the facility, could you not short sell the day before going xd for a predictable profit? I assume you couldn't do that with a spreadbet based on the futures as they already take dividends into account (and SGI in particular isn't spreadbettable to my knowledge).

The answer to whether you can play the dividend-influenced price in these ways must be 'no' but I'd like to hear why. Apologies for going off topic to plug a gap in my education!

[mad4it] 30/7/2004 12:27

xdavid

Some of this volume is undoubtedly technical traders reacting to the chart breakout, I'm one of them. I bought early doors after reading the excellent results (I only trade quality shares, regardless of the technicals) and calculated we were likely to consolidate the breakout.

(OT: Hi nurdin, hope you're well. PGB looking very cheap now, massive fall recently on no volume, I'm gonna buy back in soon, you still in ?)

[kael] 30/7/2004 12:25

Wonder if its gonna get a mention on working lunch as well LOL. Just gone through the report again and there are some gems in there. The management seem to be shaping up the buisness quite nicely. Seem to be becoming more refined and particular.

[xdavid] 30/7/2004 12:16

And a good day to you, Gengulphus. Nice to see you are still around.
I couldn't see any exclaimation marks this time in Paul Fraser's statement. Hopefully he's holding these off until the year-end report. :-)

[gengulphus] 30/7/2004 12:09

popgunn,

"A very basic question: if SGI goes xd on the 11th and holders as of the 13th get the divi, and assuming the price drops on going xd, what's to stop you buying on the 12th at the low price and getting the divi? I know that's basic but I've never looked up the answer :)"

The real thing that stops you getting the dividend if you buy ex-dividend is simply that you're not entitled to it - "ex" basically means "without", i.e. you're buying the shares without any entitlement to the dividend.

The mechanics of it are simple if you use the normal 3-day settlement period:

* Buy on Tuesday 10th, when the shares are still cum-dividend ("cum" = "with"), and your trade settles on Friday 13th, getting you on the register in time to be sent the dividend.

* Buy on Wednesday 11th, when the shares are ex-dividend, and your trade doesn't settle until Monday 16th. So the previous owner is on the register on Friday 13th and gets the dividend.

However, note that you cannot get around having bought ex-dividend by using a different settlement period: the fact that you bought ex-dividend is the controlling factor. What happens is that the mechanics get a bit more complex.

For example, suppose you buy on Wednesday 11th at the ex-dividend price, but on 1-day settlement. Your trade settles on Thursday 12th, and you're on the register on Friday 13th, so the registrars send the dividend to you.

But now your broker and the seller's broker notice that the seller is entitled to the dividend and you've got it. So your broker demands it off you (and yes, they are entitled to do this), and when they get it, they hand it over to the seller's broker for forwarding to the seller.

Gengulphus

[xdavid] 30/7/2004 12:05

This volume is astounding - well past March results day high already. I would never have predicted this! I would much rather have this solid volume underpinning the gains rather than MMs just throwing the price up purely to drop it the next day. Stunning!

[kael] 30/7/2004 11:57

Positive press to follow, I'd bet on it. sgi seems to be getting a mention everywhere at the moment! Press appears to like the investment department performance quote.

[ukhawk] 30/7/2004 11:52

Yep, they're struggling now, and could be burned with the likely positive press to follow !

[kael] 30/7/2004 11:49

Big jump (biggish anyway lol)

[xdavid] 30/7/2004 11:47

Other news feeds also reporting. This site is not bad for picking some up:

[xdavid] 30/7/2004 11:38

From Motley Fool's morning market report (9am):
"investors gave Stanley Gibbons's (LSE: SGI) interim results their stamp of approval, sending its shares 5p (5.6%) higher to 96p. The company recorded an 86% jump in interim profits to £0.6m and announced a maiden dividend of 0.5p per share. It will also pay a special dividend of 8p per share."

Their market reports appear a lot in news streams - good mention.

[shuisky] 30/7/2004 11:23

many thanks