Stanley Gibbons Share Discussion Threads

[kael] 03/8/2004 16:09

yep, same as before.

[ukhawk] 03/8/2004 16:08

Kael, KBC back on the offer ?

[ukhawk] 03/8/2004 15:45

Comdirect bid 96.5 for 37.5k, offer 10k @ 99p.

[kael] 03/8/2004 15:41

We will see a quid me thinks, by the week's out, if it gets tipped.

[nurdin] 03/8/2004 15:39

Will we see a quid? I wonder...but the buying has been encouraging

[popgunn] 03/8/2004 14:32

Gengulphus, another great post. Thanks - I really appreciated that.

[ukhawk] 03/8/2004 10:25

About as low in price as french fries........!!!

[kael] 03/8/2004 10:18

shuisky, you tease you! ;)

[shuisky] 03/8/2004 10:13

I suspect the MM's are fully aware that in all probability this will be tipped by Shares Mag and the IC. Expect a significant markup on Thursday.

[mad4it] 03/8/2004 09:12

xdavid - MMs do compete with each other, but only part of the time. Even though collusion between MMs is forbidden under FSA regs, in reality it happens all the time, because it's impossible to enforce and, frankly, the FSA don't give a toss what the MMs do! So collaboration is in the MMs interests most of the time, as it stops them beating each other up and instead they can focus on beating the retail investor up!

ukhawk - That's an encouraging bid price compared to the quoted spread.

[ukhawk] 03/8/2004 09:02

Comdirect selling 10k @ 98 and buying 37.5k @ 96, so that's not too bad !

[xdavid] 02/8/2004 23:31

Interesting discussion, guys!
With 3 MMs working in 'competition', does it not make it very difficult for one to manipulate things to any extreme without getting shafted by the others? And if they all play the same game are they not then guilty of some sort of unfair collaboration?

[mad4it] 02/8/2004 22:30

The thing you have to remember is that, regardless of buy volumes on tips, etc, the MMs can do pretty much what they like with a share price over a fairly long period.

The FSA give MMs enormous leeway to balance their books over time. So they could have buys far outweighing sells and still drop the price considerably, if they wished to do so.

Therefore the risk is less than you would think, as the MMs have plenty of time to manipulate people out of position.

[kael] 02/8/2004 22:22

Exactly what Im thinking ukhawk, it is a significant amount of risk to take on, but then they have the financial backing to take such risk :/

[ukhawk] 02/8/2004 21:33

There's a lot of risk ! There's a strong possibility of tips.com, Shares mag, and IC all coming out with positive comment behind their recent "buy" recommendations. It won't be easy taking the price down if that's the scenario.

[mad4it] 02/8/2004 21:08

Kael

Yes, there is some risk for the MMs, I guess they'd be banking on recent buy volumes containing a lot of fresh short term traders and weak holders with stop losses in place.

[kael] 02/8/2004 21:03

mad4it

I understand that, but that is based on the assumption that they will get equal or more back than they have sold, you have to admit it is a risky move they are opting to take, if its the case.

[mad4it] 02/8/2004 21:01

Kael

It does make sense for the MMs to keep a lid on the price to some degree, as any XD pullback will trap traders in at these levels and many traders will sell for less than they bought, plus a severe pullback from around these levels will trigger further stop losses. So the MMs get a lot of the shares they've sold since friday back on their books cheaper than they sold them. Then they can start pushing the price up and sell them again at higher levels.

In the meantime they can widen the spread to improve their profits, like today.

[kael] 02/8/2004 20:55

Well who knows, saw the 50K - together with the earlier RNS and lo and behold 2+2=5.

I cant see why the mm's would be reluctant to move it up, when they mark it down (or if) ex divi day, they're bound to get hit with buys. Trying to hold it back by selling into the pressure does not make good sense to me, but then again Im not a market maker ;)

[mad4it] 02/8/2004 20:52

ukhawk

Actually, I did expect a sell! So I was wrong! (Although it could still appear as a T trade tomorrow or Wednesday).

After yesterdays delayed 50k sell and the early day MM moves today, I thought we might have a persistent seller appearing in the background, but hopefully not. The MMs were probably just trying to discourage sizeable buying and sucker sellers out of their shares at the same time, certainly the end of day MM tick up on the offer, but not the bid, suggests that scenario.

[xdavid] 02/8/2004 20:49

The MMs have always tried to sucker sellers after SGI's big moves - understandable I guess and better it gets done in small stages rather than one big one. However, I think their shakings in the week before the results took out a lot of the weak holders already. I also get the sense that there is a different breed of new holders - a tad more 'knowledgeable'. Maybe just wishful thinking though...
The other scenario is that there are weak holders ready to sell but they are now all holding off until after the ex-div date, given it is quite soon, on a hope that the price 'bounces'. Combine this with the MMs playing the price down and it may indeed give the opportunity for people get in a few p lower than otherwise.

On another topic: I note no RNS saying M Hall sold his options? I would have expected this today if that was his 50,000 on Friday?

[ukhawk] 02/8/2004 20:33

mad4IT, I think we agree ! I wasn't expecting a late Sell report, not of any significant size anyway.

[mad4it] 02/8/2004 18:53

ukhawk

While a delayed trade in the next day or two is still possible, the late day MM moves and final spread indicate they are trying to sucker sellers and discourage buyers.

[mad4it] 02/8/2004 18:48

Good post G. However, I had another tricky MM scenario in mind, a cunning plan Baldric would be proud of. ;)
But I still think it's best I keep it to myself, for now. (I'm still trying to work out if it's feasable and if they can get away with it.)

As for the scenarios you present, I'm hoping they WILL try something similar. Thus allowing myself and others to buy cheap shares on or after the XD date AND get the divi. It'll be interesting to see how they play it.

[ukhawk] 02/8/2004 18:31

Well the 2 late sales reported were roughly cancelled out by the late buy. No sign of a big sale yet.