Stanley Gibbons Share Discussion Threads

[kael] 30/7/2004 07:34

That'll do nicely then DC, let me get off the floor and make a cuppa, LOL.

[kael] 30/7/2004 07:24

Dont forget that the nature of the buisness means that trading is weighted towards the second half of the year.

The fact that EPS is up by 84% is very good news, the sales growth is also VERY encouraging, philatelic retail sales up 31%. A perfect example of the strong trading market they are encountering. Given the comments concerning the investment department this seems to have followed through into the seconcd half.

Ah yes the divi, forgot about that one, tell me where the bad news is hidden in the report? No nevermind, there isnt any!

[don carter] 30/7/2004 07:23

Excellent results SGI! Well done! H2 eps last year was 3.61. Even in what now looks the very very unlikely event that they simply did the same again in H2 '04, and did not have grow at their usual exhilarating rate, their full eps would be 5.36. This beats forecasts. And the likely actual result in 6 months will smash them. Even at 5.36 eps the share price would be a minimum of 100p. If they hit 6p a share fair price might be 120p.

None of this is to mention the new divi, always a good sign, and the special divi, what a bonus!

[nurdin] 30/7/2004 07:23

These are results beyond my best expectations! Have just woken up so brain not quite in gear,but remeber historically H2 is normally 2.5-3 times better than H1..will check

[ukhawk] 30/7/2004 07:20

Figis, what were you expecting then ?

The full 8p from PRVD is being returned to shareholders, plus 0.5 p interim divi, that's about the best that could possibly have been hoped for here. Profit up 86%, eps up 84%.......

[kael] 30/7/2004 07:11

Profits up 86% and you say dissappointing? In line for full year imo.

[figis] 30/7/2004 07:06

A tad disappointing

[kael] 30/7/2004 07:03

Look at the sales growth!

[kael] 30/7/2004 07:02

profit up 84%

[kael] 30/7/2004 07:01

8.5p divi.

[don carter] 30/7/2004 06:59

Hi Kael,
Excited? Me too. Keep taking the pills
Good luck in 2 minutes, mate!

[kael] 30/7/2004 06:51

Morning all, hope you're up now lol.

[xdavid] 29/7/2004 16:43

I better go and prepare my spreadsheet to plug the figures into...
Let's see if Paul Fraser can repeat these statements from the 2003 results...

"I am very pleased to report a record net profit before tax of £1,227,000 (2002: £537,000) up 128%, being the highest profit figure achieved in the fifteen years I have been involved with the Company!"

"I am becoming increasingly excited about the future of Stanley Gibbons as we enjoy strong philatelic market conditions and a heightening interest in alternative investments at the same time as beginning to reap the rewards from the successful implementation of our strategy in building the number one stamp community in the world."

I'll fill a glass to him tonight...

See you all early tomorrow - LOL!

[kael] 29/7/2004 16:38

Sweet dreams everyone, cya tomorrow bright and early, here's to a stonking set of results tomorrow!

[ukhawk] 29/7/2004 16:30

Can only buy 5k @ 90.98p, lol. Well we know which way the mm's expect this to go tomorrow !

[xdavid] 29/7/2004 13:09

Comdirect: 11:06
Offer price: 3.75K (down from 7.5) @ 90.5
Bid price: 15K @ 88.3
Mid: 89, 2.5% spead

After 5000 buy just made. NMS on offer down again to 3.75K. LOL!

[xdavid] 29/7/2004 12:33

Yep. That PDF article I posted the link to is good for describing what is happening. MMs fear 'knowledgeable' investors - people who are buying/selling purely on fundamentals and news flow. MMs do not largely make money from these investors. MMs make their money from 'unknowledgeable' investors - people who are buying and selling without any real basis for their actions i.e. they may have bought purely on a 'tip'. MMs can provoke reactions from these investors by appealing to their base emotions - greed and fear.

Today, for example, all the MMs did was increase the spread after keeping it un-normally tight yesterday. They just dropped their buying price and then dropped the headline 'mid' the same. 'Unknowledgeable' investors see this after the 2% manipulated fall yesterday and fear drives them into the trap. Meanwhile, the MMs offer price has hardly changed so anyone not tempted previously to buy, does not really see a cheaper price so this leads to a look of a sell-off - triggering more panic sells...

If it all goes quiet later this afternoon, I wouldn't be surprised to see the price moving back up, even without any buying.

[ukhawk] 29/7/2004 12:21

Hmmm, they'll still take 15k off you but only sell 7.5k.

[ukhawk] 29/7/2004 12:15

Nice work this market-making lark ! Sold a load end of last week at around 95p, bought it all back, and more maybe, at around 89p, sell it again at quite a bit more tomorrow (we expect !). They don't often get it wrong either.

[xdavid] 29/7/2004 09:56

Comdirect: 10:16
Offer price: 7.5K @ 90.5 (-.25)
Bid price: 15K @ 88.3 (-1)
Mid: 89 (-1), 2.5% spead (from 1.7% yesterday)

Little flurry of panic this morning... LOL.
NMS on offer tightened. Offer price only drops by 0.25p but bid by whole 1p to just below mid.
Selling fodder for the MMs. Predictable after yesterday.

[kael] 28/7/2004 15:07

Well you can never be too sure about an mm's positions, but SGI has the tendency to follow that pattern. Given that mm's wont hold a position for "too" long and SGI's illiquidity, you can make certain assumptions. Ah well, just me going off on one, nm :)

[ukhawk] 28/7/2004 14:58

Kael, you know that, I know that............

[kael] 28/7/2004 14:52

ukhawk - you now know why they were reluctant to mark it up more when the buys were coming in @ 95p - must have been short. Held the offer down, traders and the uninformed sell out as price doesnt move, mm's get their stock back and drop it back to support. Interims in 2 days, if they are as good as we hope they will be, it will be time for the next move up.

With the possiblity of a special dividend and the activity it will generate, I would say being short again wouldn't be the greatest move, but they may be forced to take that position as buyers pile in. They will carry that position up until they reach a point whereby the spread (and share price) will allow them to cover their short positions at a profit, as we have just seen over the past few weeks, as an example sold stock at 95p bought back at 91p.

[ukhawk] 28/7/2004 14:11

As per Kael's theory, it's good news the mm's have some stock. They'll now be able to mark it up nicely on friday morning, lol !