Stanley Gibbons Share Discussion Threads

[daza75] 08/2/2004 16:47

Thanks MO. Cant really read anything into the chart at the mo bar from a general uptrend. Will c what happens this week.

Is anyone here interested in CSV. Ive picked up 150,000 over the course of last week. Charts looking fantastic. Im just hoping it will break 11.5p and stay over it at close.

I do not usually put this much into one stock but ive got one of those feelings you get. I had this with FFY @104 which has proved very profitable. Fingers crossed i guess!!!!

[mo123] 08/2/2004 16:39

daza. Answer is yes, but if you look at the balance sheet there are no other investments. Only the 223K which relates to PRVD.

[nurdin] 08/2/2004 14:50

Peter..PRVD stake is becoming a significant part of their assets now (a 12 bagger for them) but its still at the mercy of Nasdaq.I would rather investors in SGI focus on the companys core business and its strengths rather than their investment in PRVD...a big bonus as it is.
I think it maybe to their advantage to hold the stake for the long term.PRVD is set grow looking at their ambitions.Besides Provide have and are building a huge database of customers.As a holder of 2% of the company Id have thought they could be persuaded to share the database with Stanley which no doubt would benefit their marketing efforts in the USA big time..

[daza75] 08/2/2004 14:25

as shareholders are they obliged to tell us what they do hold as assets??

[barnetpeter] 08/2/2004 14:22

NURDIN - I disagree. The PRVD is not just a bonus, it is a huge bonus. I would hope SGI would sell some shortly into this strength. I wonder if they have any more similar suprises?

[cockneyrebel] 07/2/2004 13:26

Agreed Taurus.

But SGI's price rise has on'y really kept pace more or less with the gains on the balance sheet from the PVRD stake.

Look at it this way, if SGI match earnings estimates of 3.3p then they seem cheap to me based on the earnings expectations of 5.7p eps for the year ahead. But the actual growth in the value of their stake in PVRD is growing faster than the earnings growth.

Also, having done 1.19p adjusted in H1 then the 2.1p eps in H2 is very strong growth over H1 - approachhing 100%. If that was the trend for the businrss they would do 4.1p in H1 2004 and 8.1p in H2 - 12.2p for the year. I'm not saying they will do that but they have the opportunity for that momentum to reduce very significantly yeat still easily meet or beat next year's estimates.

Also. if at the interims nett assets were 6.8m and that represented 27p a share then with the increase in PRVD value the NAV now must be around 35p or more and rising fast.

CR

[nurdin] 07/2/2004 13:18

Taurus..
-I dont believe investors have been buying because of the PRVD stake..although it has helped
-SGI shares have risen becuase of its earnings growth potential going forward
-the 03 results are a history as they have said they will meet.I personally expect them to beat forecasts but we will have to wait and see
-this years forecasts are likely to be revised upwards to atleast 6p(from 5.6p) imo
-that translates to a pe of just 10 at yesterdays offer price
-a company showing eps growth of 70% should be valued at more like 15x earnings
-target price therefore 90p in my view..ie potentially 50% upside from here
-the price could go higher on asset basis of course.Strip out cash and equivalents,worth 16p (4p cash + 12p PRVD)the shares look even cheaper..04 PE of 7.6!!

[daza75] 07/2/2004 13:02

Fair point Tauras and if thats the case the share price should be around 50p but then again thats not taking into account the future of SGI's performance.

[taurusthebear] 07/2/2004 12:55

If it's worth about 12p per SGI share at present I guess you can figure that with every $2 rise in PRVD, SGI NAV benefits by a 1p. May not sound much, but what if PRVD go on to become "the perishable Amazon" (don't laugh - stranger things have happened!) - then you could be looking at a PRVD price in a year or two way ahead of today's! If PRVD doubled from today's price, it'd be worth another 12p onto SGI's NAV. Interesting stuff!

Anyway, nurdin, you say that SGI's results will be "stunning", but aren't they already discounted by the rise in the share price? Aren't the earnings largely taken for granted now that the company has said they will be inline? And isn't the real interest in what SGI will say going forward?

Also, I note that the IPO and rise of PRVD has roughly matched that of SGI in the past couple of months. Is that co-incidence, or do you think many people have bought into SGI as a sort of geared play on that (implying that a Nasdaq correction could have the negative effect)? If that isn't the case, why the rise? - solely leading up to results, looks a bit strong to me, at 50% in less than two months... :0)

[nurdin] 07/2/2004 12:28

ok heres my estimate:
-They said that their stake at $13 PVRD price was worth £1.7m
-using exchange rate of $1.8 to a £ we have PVRD price at £7 equating to £1.7m
-that translates to a holding of 242k shares...call it round no of 250k shares
-PVRD market cap $263m at say $22..therefore roughly 12m shares in the issue
-0.25m holding translates to 2% of PVRD holding..if my sums are right.

ps exact value of stake at $22 PVRD price is $5.5m

-Book value prior to flotation was £223k equal to circa $400k...means the stake is worth 13-14 times original value

[cockneyrebel] 07/2/2004 12:09

Been raking through the old posts above - can anyone answer -

What is SGI's holding of PRVD as a % of PVRD?

Also, do you have an exact value of this stake as of today?

I've not bought SGI for their stake in PVRD but it's starting to interest me and would like to do a more exact calculation.

Cheers

CR

[mo123] 07/2/2004 11:36

Market cap PRVD $262.89M, SGI £14.3M.

PRVD have said they want to expand and diversify and they have lots of cash.
A reverse takeover a possibility? Yes, dream on Mo.

nurdin
Stanley Gibbons already using its brand name in China.
They held a stamp auction at;
Hall No.1, Hong Kong Convention and Exhibition Centre,
Wanchai, Hong Kong, DATE: 30th January 2004 to 3rd February 2004.

[nurdin] 07/2/2004 09:18

Whilst the PRVD stake underpins SGIs assets base,this is really a play on the Companys core business and its growth prospects going forward.PRVD stake value will fluctuate with the vagaries of Nasdaq and I am not expecting it to make much headway from here, atleast short term..The stamp and other 'collectables' market is seeing a revival globally as previous posts have shown and the market is growing fast.SGI have taken steps to capitalise on this market and we can look forward to see some stunning results when they report in about 3 weeks time.

[taurusthebear] 07/2/2004 06:58

Thanks for the feedback.

Here's some stuff on PRVD - they actually made a profit in the last quarter, good prospects, looks expensive to me but the Yanks seem to love it at the moment!

[nurdin] 07/2/2004 05:56

Good article daza...learnt something !

[nurdin] 06/2/2004 21:53

Thanks Mo....interesting!

Now if only SGI can tap into the chinese market! :o)

[daza70] 06/2/2004 21:34

prvd up over 10% on the day. LOVELY

[mo123] 06/2/2004 21:06

Evening all. Down a tad I see but at least PRVD going in the right direction.

nurdin check out




The last time I looked, the number of lots for sale was only half that figure.
Looks as though the auction market is picking up.

Mo

[nurdin] 06/2/2004 20:37

Holders may find this interesting:


Stamp-collecting Growing Popular Across Country
Stamp-collecting in China has grown increasingly popular in recent years, with the number of collectors reaching 18 million, said Luo Shuzhen, president of the All-China Philatelic Federation, Tuesday in Beijing.

Addressing the federation's fifth national congress which opened Tuesday, Luo said the growing hobby has "promoted the expansion of China's postal service and contributed to socialist, cultural and ethical progress." The three-day quadrennial conference, attended by more than 300 representatives and officials from the Ministry of Culture and State Postal Bureau, will end with a plan to advance stamp collecting even more, Luo said.

Extending his congratulations to the congress, Tian Jiyun, vice-chairman of the Standing Committee of the National People's Congress and honorary president of the All-China Philatelic Federation, said he expects the federation will popularize the hobby nationwide.

Founded in January 1982, the federation has 4.21 million members and encompasses 44,959 local stamp-collection associations, according to federation sources.

Kund Mohr, president of the Federation of International Philately, said in a letter to the congress that he believes Chinese enthusiasts will greatly contribute to world stamp-collecting in the years to come.

Last August, China hosted the 1999 World Philatelic Exhibition. The top prize - the Grand Prix National Award - was awarded to Chinese contestant Shen Zhenghua for his collection "East China People's Post."

While officials pledge to reinforce their efforts in promoting stamp-collection in China, some experts propose that e-commerce should be introduced to further tap the market potential. China's stamp market has a smaller transaction volume compared to those in developed countries.

Post offices should launch professional stamp websites and sell stamps and stamp-collection merchandise on-line, collectors told the China Philately News.

On-line sales would reduce costs and revitalize sluggish stamp markets in remote regions, said Xu Dongli, a stamp expert in Beijing.

[barnetpeter] 06/2/2004 20:03

PRVD Last: 22.63 Change: +1.62 +7.71% Volume: 83,348

CBS has an interview with the CEO who is very positive.

[nurdin] 06/2/2004 19:49

yup..PRVD stake is now worth near 20% of SGis current market cap!

[daza70] 06/2/2004 19:39

and prvd up further. 7.1%

[nurdin] 06/2/2004 18:38

Taurus..come ere.Sit down and listen :o)

-stamp collecting is a passion...not unlike that shown by 'collectors' of scaletrix and steam trains
-30m collectors world-wide.
-kids learn from dads and develop a passion..new breed of collectors created all the time
-collectors crave to fill gaps in their horde and search world wide to do so
-political changes make stamps of individual countries more in demand .....Iraquee stamps under old regime,Chechenya,Slovania,African states..old and new,The Commonwealth etc
-New Covers are being issued all the time by differnet countries, fuelling further demand
-then we have stamps to honour the deserving personalities,world Rugby team,individual sporting heroes,Royals past and present etc.The list goes on.Princess DI stamps comes to mind..
--Countries world wide will always come up with stamps to mark an occasion important to that country,historical or current..creating further demand
-rare stamps are sought after for investment purposes
-in summary its the world events,political,scientific,sporting and historical that drives the demand for stamps .Collectors see it both as a hobby and an investment.
-little wonder then that it has become a £5bn industry!


-I am not a collector by the way and know little about stamps, but can appreciate the passion of those who do.