Stanley Gibbons Share Discussion Threads

[nurdin] 29/1/2004 18:41

Yup pausing for a breathe.
PRVD are holding their recent gains depite weak Nasdaq.Bodes well if the market picks up again over the next few weeks.
$24 target would make that worth near 12p a share on their balance sheet.Of course the net worth will appreciate if the dollar strengthens against sterling following a possible rate rise in the US...but I am not pinning any hopes on the dollar rising.
Its the core SGI business that looks the most exciting...I am expecting them to announce their Alternative Investment Trust initiative soon as the stock markets enter more uncertain periods...watch the share price if they do make an announcement!

[cockneyrebel] 29/1/2004 15:28

Had a nice consolidation phase - waiting for another leg up now and a 'mass punter pile in' as with the last bout of buying.

NAV's going to have risen nicely and more being added to the year ahead too.

CR

[mo123] 29/1/2004 15:22

Roth Capital initiates coverage of PRVD as a Buy, and price target of $24

see

[nurdin] 28/1/2004 11:04

25k buy just shown..could so with a few more of those ;o)

[nurdin] 27/1/2004 21:00

My impression is that they are still naive when it comes to dealing with the city..perhaps a hangover from the old ways of running the business .Nothing concrete,just reading the accounts and chatting to the men holding the reins.I feel they will exceed market expectations but the old establishment attitudes prevent them from saying so..just a gut feel mind.SGI are at the threshhold of tapping into an enormous market..lets hope the management have the know how and the foresight to put in place mechanisms that fully exploits their enviable market position...

[mo123] 27/1/2004 20:19

Can only refer you to last statement made on collectibles in July 2003, highlighted in parenthesis.

"Trading was strong in May and June, (and with the recent resurgence in
interest that we have experienced in the collectibles market), this looks set to
continue for the remainder of the year," the group said.

It looks like the collectibles market is growing strongly and hopefully it will remain strong throughout 2004.

We also appear to have a competent management team in place at SGI who are delivering on expectations. Think that should go down well with institutions who are contemplating buying into SGI.

[nurdin] 27/1/2004 18:01

Great find Mo...hadnt seen that piece before.Shows the potential for SGIs business doesnt it?

[nurdin] 27/1/2004 17:20

Those who fear the stock market are already putting their hard earned cash into alternative investments,,such as you mention.SGI are talking to their brokers to launch what is called an Aletrnative Investment Trust'.This would only invest in so called collectables with good prospects for long term growth.SGI will be encouraging them to invest in rare stamps and such likes of course under their guidance.I am waiting for news on the launch of this trust.

[tom.muir] 27/1/2004 17:10

I only bought this at the beginning of the month so I probably paid more than most of you guys - but I think I'm still in ahead of the main herd.

One thing that attracted me is something that I havn't seen mentioned before and that is that it strikes me as a great hedge against a stock market crash. If a time comes when everyone is panicked into ditching equities there will be an enourmous wall of cash looking for a home. Collectables such as stamps autographs etc etc must then look very attractive. But even if this doesnt happen ( and I devoutly hope it doesn't) then SG still looks seriously undervalued to me. Tom

[nurdin] 27/1/2004 09:50

Good point gengul :o)

[gengulphus] 27/1/2004 09:44

Also worth remembering that SGI is an AIM company, and I believe it counts as a "trading company" (anyone know for certain?). Together, those should mean that "business taper relief" applies to its CGT calculations - after 1 year holding, only half the actual gain is taxed; after 2 years, only one quarter of it. So there should be significant advantage in holding for more than just a few months.

Gengulphus

[mo123] 26/1/2004 22:32

Good to see PRVD hit $20.

If the forecast for SGI for 2005 is somwhere between 7p and 9p. Then even on the lower figure and a miserly forward P/E ratio of 12, it would give us a minimum share price of 84p (12 x 7).
Can still see this share hitting £1 but that may not happen until next year. Happy to hold and wait over the medium term.

[gateside] 26/1/2004 22:31

nurdin... that's exactly how I like to invest, I usually look to hold for a minimum of 12 months. My stars of last year were Ottakars, Fyffes & Merrydown, all have gone up a long way and I will continue to hold for a while yet, as I believe they have a lot more left in them. That is why I like CR's attitude to share picking and have recently bought into VCP CKN and MBY. I may be a bit late joining the party on those three, but I agree that there is more to come.

[nurdin] 26/1/2004 21:32

Gateside ..another point.Sometimes it pays to hold a company long term if you believe in their business model and the markets they operate in.Companys like Horby have seen their price appreciate 10 folds over last three-four years as CR will no doubt tell you.
So if you believe SGI can maitain their earnings growth rate over the next few years their eps could reach 16p by 2006. With a track record established they could easily be rerated to a conservative 20x earnings..that is a price target of 320p.Its nice to dream..:o)

[gateside] 26/1/2004 20:59

nurdin - daza70

Thanks guys, thats helpful :-)

[daza70] 26/1/2004 20:57

my target is 70p by April/May time. Then?.........

[nurdin] 26/1/2004 20:54

gateside..I hold while I think they are undervalued.At 70% eps growth rate a fair PE would be 20x or more but lets say 15x is more likely given that SGI have yet to prove their business model long term.On next years earnings forecast of circa 5.6p my target price would be about 85p.They should reach that sometimes this year..all being well.
Of course if their internet trading sites become dominant contributors to their revenues and profits,the markets could start rating them more in line with their peers..ebay..comes to mind.In which case......lets not go there lol!

[gateside] 26/1/2004 20:21

nurdin... do you have a price or a timeframe in mind, at which point you think these could become a sell?

[nurdin] 26/1/2004 19:59

Great! My target could be met earlier than I thought... :o)

[daza70] 26/1/2004 19:55

and we have hit $20

[nurdin] 26/1/2004 19:05

PRVD close to hiting $20 on nasdaq...SGI are getting richer by the day :o)

[nurdin] 26/1/2004 10:25

Yup..SGI as you know have a quite a few specilaist web sites...Fraser autographs is going great guns from what I hear and there are also sites for 'memoribilias'..again a huge market.

PRVD stake is now worth 10p a share incidentally.While the stake value will vary with fluctuations in the share price,PRVD is showing excellent relative strength against broader markets..I expect this holding to be worth atleast £3.0m by half year...equivalent to 12p per share...bargain or what!

[cockneyrebel] 26/1/2004 10:06

nurdin - I saw the Antiques RS - saw the expert too that bought a couple of pieces of china on Ebay at a snip.

Has to be the way things will move further and further imo from generalised auction sites to specialist ones.

CR

[nurdin] 26/1/2004 07:04

oops..double posted