Sdx Energy Share Discussion Threads

[ashkv] 11/2/2022 17:01

thegreatgeraldo what would the probability be per your assessment for the two South Disouq wells with a third party assessed chance of success of 40% and 45% each?

And in different geological plays so a miss on one doesn't impact striking gas in the other...

Simple probability per my take...


Probability of Two Events Occurring Together
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Probability of Two Events Occurring Together: Overview

probability of two events happening together

Answering probability questions can seem tricky, but they all really boil down to two things:

Figuring out if you multiply or add probabilities.
Figuring out if you have dependent events (one event has an influence on the other) or independent (they have no effect on each other)


"Should I multiply or add probabilities?

You would add probabilities if you want to find out if one event or another could happen. For example, if you roll a die, and you wanted to know the probability of rolling a 1 or a 6, then you would add the probabilities:

Probability of rolling a 1: 1/6
Probability of rolling a 6: 1/6"

For Two SD Exploration wells that are independent events probability is -> 4/10 (40%) + 9/20 (45%) = 85%

Please explain where I am off - been a while since I delved into this mathematical area and might be rusty :(

[ashkv] 11/2/2022 16:54

Shakey is a relentless troll and he should sell and get on with another investment...

SDX will certainly be generating free cash flow in 2022 - given that they have jettisoned a large but expensive/costly Morocco customer for whom in prior years SDX were on the hook for Capex to drill and build reserves for this customer on what would appear a low price long term gas contract - that didn't even recover drilling / capex costs let alone generate profit. Management have clearly stated that in 2022 - Morocco will fund its entire Capex/Costs.

SD is profitable and with 2 decent size exploration targets of 40% and 45% chance of success that would would add 1-2 years of production - along with 1/3 cost borne by farm-out partner so it is reasonable to forecast that SD should generate free cash flow.

West Gharib Oil production with a target of 1000 bpd net in early 2023 from current lower levels will be a money spinner with super low operating costs and recovery from Egyptian authorities to drilling costs prior to the hefty Egyptian take of proceeds... At current brent prices generating close to $30mn of revenues - most of which would be pure profit...

Ergo - it is rather logical that in 2022 SDX will be profitable. Even assuming SD is worth zero (which recent deal marks to market is not so as remaining 66.67% with SDX of South Disouq is worth 6.1p based on funds received for farm-out).

Share price is ridiculously low due to low volume / lack of love courtesy this bottom drawer dope management...

Brent: $92.50
Share Price: 8.25
Shares Outstanding: 205,378,069
GBPUSD Exch Rate: 1.356
Market Cap GBP: £16,943,691
Market Cap USD: $22,975,645
Debt: $0
Cash (1 Feb 2022 Operational Update): $10,600,000
Inventory (2021 Half Year Figures): $7,640,000
Investments (Egyptian Oil Services Firm per 2021 HY Report): $4,013,000
Enterprise Value(EV) (Only Subtracting Cash): $12,375,645
Enterprise Value(EV) Sub (Cash+Inventory+Investment): $722,645
Prod Guidance 2022 (3,300 - 3,550 Mid is 3,425): 3,425
EV/Barrel-USD (Cash): $3,613
EV/Barrel-USD (Cash+Inventory+Inv): $211
(Minimal Decomissioning Costs)

[tnt99] 10/2/2022 14:50

I did well on hurricane as sold at the top

[thegreatgeraldo] 09/2/2022 14:52

See you're a new poster...what names have you used in the past?

[drew lonmenob] 09/2/2022 14:30

tgg

seem to remember you ramping HUR all the way down

didnt work out too well eh

[tnt99] 09/2/2022 09:18

Keep on buying you know it makes sense there is a man giving away 1 pounds to give you 5 must be christmas

[thegreatgeraldo] 08/2/2022 14:36

ashkv4 Feb '22 - 11:00 - 8980 of 8989
0

At 40% and 45 assessed probability for independent plays it is a 85% likelihood (simple probability) that 1 of the 2 South Disouq well strike gas..

...Errr...no it isn't. You've simply not grasped probability

[shakeypremis] 08/2/2022 09:17

They are getting US$1m between them in salary each year, 66/33% split more or less. Then there was also over US$1m spent last year on 'management consultancy' on business opportunities that never came anywhere close to fruition. So more money for them both.

Reid is probably just trying to get to retirement. No gusto, no desire to do anything but keep the lights on and keep drawing that salary on his cushty job where he probably doesn't have to work very hard. Both just accountants.

Yes almost negative enterprise value but all that has happened here for years is an erosion of value. Does this continue or does a turnaround happen? At the moment, especially with this management team I don't see any reason for that to occur and this year will be much lower revenue due to 33% sale of SD for contributions to CAPEX and OPEX and shutoff of gas to customer in Morocco. CAPEX spend will also be at similar levels to last year so is there any way this company generates free cash flow this year?

[wigwammer] 07/2/2022 08:17

Yes. I find the analysis by ashkv quite persuasive. On the other side, the detractors are full of hot air and finger pointing rhetoric, the quantity of which will relate closely to the amount of money they have lost here. ATB

[winnet] 06/2/2022 11:53

wigwammer, a name I remember from the past!

You "in" then... ?

[tnt99] 05/2/2022 19:58

I think this is a screaming buy I keep sinking my hard earned cash into this one and expect a large hike in the share price this year20p plus by Christmas lol

[wigwammer] 04/2/2022 15:33

If you flick back you'll see most of these gurus were buying in the 20's and above... perhaps they want to chat us through that decision..

[wigwammer] 04/2/2022 15:05

Have some sympathy for pjj71.. if you glance through his posting history you'll see he lost rather a lot here :(

[pjj71] 04/2/2022 12:39

the only forecast needed with the widow maker is how much dosh will the management sink into next years capex program!!! its like groundhog day each year for the bag carriers (except the share price which tanks a further 50% each year...)

the trend is your friend...

[ashkv] 04/2/2022 11:01

At today's 8.25p - the market has effectively viewed the firm has having zero option value to the upside (Zero probability for 2 South Disouq upcoming drills in Q1 and Q2, Zero chance of West Gharib going to 1k bpd net of lucrative oil production by early 2023 etc) I am certainly not gifting away my shares...

Brent: $92.50
Share Price: 8.25
Shares Outstanding: 205,378,069
GBPUSD Exch Rate: 1.356
Market Cap GBP: £16,943,691
Market Cap USD: $22,975,645
Debt: $0
Cash (1 Feb 2022 Operational Update): $10,600,000
Inventory (2021 Half Year Figures): $7,640,000
Investments (Egyptian Oil Services Firm per 2021 HY Report): $4,013,000
Enterprise Value(EV) (Only Subtracting Cash): $12,375,645
Enterprise Value(EV) Sub (Cash+Inventory+Investment): $722,645
Prod Guidance 2022 (3,300 - 3,550 Mid is 3,425): 3,425
EV/Barrel-USD (Cash): $3,613
EV/Barrel-USD (Cash+Inventory+Inv): $211
(Minimal Decomissioning Costs)

[ashkv] 04/2/2022 11:00

Management has been dire - and the uber troll who wrote a recent negative commentary on a half baked site doesn't appreciate that consequent to South Disouq sale it is not cash flow that is being received but additional payment from the acquiring firm that will contribute for the 2 well program Capex in Q1 and Q2 and the $5.5mn received for SDisouq sale will be used for buyback and new venture.
SD 66% retained asset has a mark to market price of 6.1p on SDX share price from the sale... so management could easily monetize the same.

Morocco is self funding including Capex with the large low price client dumped unless they re-sign at an improved price and with all the drills - will keep the lights on there and hopefully add reserves. SDX situation improving in Morocco going forward is my assessment...

At 40% and 45 assessed probability for independent plays it is a 85% likelihood (simple probability) that 1 of the 2 South Disouq well strike gas...

Also West Gharib production at $92 oil is a money gusher...with an upside to 1k bpd net in early 2023 from 500-600bpd net to SDX at present...

Management have I believe been put on notice and I expect a turn around...

[ashkv] 04/2/2022 10:27

Hopefully this change of strategy and share buy back - possible upside catalysts on drilling success in South Disouq in the next few months plus production increases in West Gharib will lead to the share recovering some lost ground.

For the amount of capital put into South Disouq the realized price seems very cheap - would have preferred a disposal of Morocco... though they claim that all capital expenses will be paid for for from Morocco assets..

Brent: $91.30
Share Price: 9.7
Shares Outstanding: 205,378,069
GBPUSD Exch Rate: 1.34
Market Cap GBP: £19,921,673
Market Cap USD: $26,695,041
Debt: $0
Cash: $10,600,000
Inventory (2021 Half Year Figures): $7,640,000
Investments (Egyptian Oil Services Firm per 2021 HY Report): $4,013,000
Enterprise Value(EV) (Only Subtracting Cash): $16,095,041
Enterprise Value(EV) Sub (Cash+Inventory+Investment): $4,442,041
Prod Guidance 2022 (3,300 - 3,550 Mid is 3,425): 3,425
EV/Barrel-USD (Cash): $4,699
EV/Barrel-USD (Cash+Inventory+Inv): $1,297
(Minimal Decommissioning Costs)

[ashkv] 04/2/2022 10:27

With the upcoming US$3m H2 share buyback at 9p (assumption) - share price with current level of Inventory, Cash and Investments is 9.2p (do the calcs)
$15mn from West Gharib at prevailing oil prices (almost pure profit) assuming no uplift in production post the conservative guidance.
2 Wells in South Disouq Egypt with Chance of Success (COS) of 40% and 45%
Play opening in Morocco
Re-on boarding of Morocco customer at prices that make Morocco solidly profitable post capex - all to play for...

Deep value unloved share at some point - their will be a catalyst - a predator, success Disouq results, Morocco play opening, new project - this share is priced for immediate failure...

[wigwammer] 03/2/2022 14:11

Anyone who has lost a lot of money backing this dog should seriously consider sacking themselves, and in future stick to buying a nice index ETF. Unfortunately, too many PI's make the same errors - buy high, sell low, and always point the finger elsewhere.

[pjj71] 03/2/2022 14:10

the widow maker looks set to reach all time lows in the next couple of weeks...

at least the management continue to rake it in!! will be interesting to see when the last few bag carriers say enough is enough and call an EGM to get them sacked!!! Might be worth a punt at 1.5p to see if that happens... otherwise the trend is your friend with this wealth destroyer of a company...

[shakeypremis] 03/2/2022 13:27

Management and board should really be sacked now - someone has to takeover and turn this around now or it's all going down the toilet.

[34adsaddsa] 02/2/2022 18:15

More like 3+ years ago.

[wigwammer] 02/2/2022 17:24

No doubt same growth investors - having made a fortune in the recent oil recovery - are so rolling in money they no longer bother with advfn... :)

[wigwammer] 02/2/2022 17:21

So the company is buying back assets at a fraction of what the clever clever growth investors here paid just a year or two ago. And these same growth gurus are claiming management are stoopid? Pot. Kettle etc..