Sdx Energy Share Discussion Threads

[tnt99] 09/12/2021 13:02

I will be quite happy to see a build in their balance sheet then ripe for takeover

[ashkv] 08/12/2021 08:38

SDX at 8p is essentially valued at ZERO, BANKRUPT, NO POSSIBLE UPSIDE - FOR A ZERO DEBT, CASH RICH FIRM (FOR ITS SIZE) AND WITH MOROCCOS LARGEST PRIVATE GAS PIPELINE.

WHAT A GREAT INVESTMENT AND I WILL LIKELY HAVE TO ADD HERE AS I HAVE NEVER EVEN SEEN SUCH A VALUE DISCONNECT - MUPPET MANAGEMENT NOTWITHSTANDING...

HOPEFULLY THE MANAGEMENT GET THE DOOR OR AT LEAST THE LOSERS STEP UP AND BUY SHARES AT THESE LEVELS...
INSANE... WHAT A BUNCH OF CLOWNS....
8 Dec 2021
Brent - $75.15
Share Price - 8
GBPUSD Exch Rate - 1.32
Market Cap GBP - £16,430,409
Market Cap USD - $21,688,140
Debt - $0
Cash - $9,800,000
Inventory (2021 Half Year Figures) - $7,640,000
Investments (Egyptian Oil Services Firm per 2021 HY Report) - $4,013,000
Enterprise Value(EV) (Only Subtracting Cash) - $11,888,140
Enterprise Value(EV) Sub (Cash+Inventory+Investment) - $235,140
Production Actual Till End Q3 2021 - 5,931
EV/Barrel-USD (Cash) - $2,004
EV/Barrel-USD (Cash+Inventory+Inv) - $40
(Minimal Decomissioning Costs)

[winnet] 06/12/2021 12:14

AFAIK Waha Capital is in cahoots with the current team, but they surely cannot be happy. They could never consider a clean break unless there was some sort of mechanism for them to recoup some of their losses, thus a change of management is probable... IRIC Paul Welch lied and they got rid of him effectively, what about the absolute incompetence of Boxy and Reid; could they do the same?

[shakeypremis] 06/12/2021 12:07

Would love someone to come in, take a significant stake in this company and try to influence the board and turn it around.

[winnet] 06/12/2021 11:54

@Shakey - idle gossip, dog and duck trader talk, nothing more. I will re phrase the post.

Could be for a whole or part?

[shakeypremis] 06/12/2021 10:29

@winnet - where did you hear private equity were interested in SDX?

[winnet] 06/12/2021 10:14

Hey folks. Not sure if it's a good sign or not, but I'm back in. :-)

All of this will come to a head. Could well be a target for private equity.

[ashkv] 29/11/2021 16:30

At 8.9p Enterprise Value is approaching ZERO

Seriously how can managment not buy their own shares rather than drilling unprofitable wells in Morocco... this is beyond a value play...

Updated 29 Nov
Brent - $75.00
Share Price - 8.9
GBPUSD Exch Rate - 1.33
Market Cap GBP - £18,274,022
Market Cap USD - $24,304,449
Debt - $0
Cash - $9,800,000 (November 2021 - Q3 update)
Inventory (Half Year Figures) - $7,640,000 (Not provided in Q3 update and from half year - has remained steady prior quarters)
Investments (Egyptian Oil Services Firm) - $4,013,000 (Mark To Market / Equity Stake in firm)
Enterprise Value(EV) (Only Subtracting Cash) - $14,504,449
Enterprise Value(EV) Sub (Cash+Inventory+Investment) - $2,851,449
Production Actual Till End Q3 2021 - 5,931
EV/Barrel-USD (Cash) - $2,446
EV/Barrel-USD (Cash+Inventory+Inv) - $481
(Minimal Decomissioning Costs)

[wigwammer] 24/11/2021 19:24

Yeah I'm sure you've got an endless list of negatives to draw on.... In the meantime, Meseda is a material prospect (contrary to your earlier suggestion) and entitlements are already factored into the profitability guidance they give (contrary to your earlier suggestion). ATB

[shakeypremis] 24/11/2021 19:06

Whatever, I am contemplating buying at this price based on the value at present. I just don't think the market cares though and I don't trust management. I would probably wait for news on just what that Morocco stuff is.

[wigwammer] 24/11/2021 18:04

There there, shakey. I think we both know you made a mistake about the potential at Meseda. And quite frankly they could find a 10000 boepd asset and you aren't going to change your mind. The shares are so lowly valued they must be expensive, eh?! Look on the plus side, the first drill might be a duster and then life will get easier for you and your monologue all over again...

[wigwammer] 24/11/2021 18:00

Kaos3 - a lot of people here believe management have repeatedly wasted cash flow. But please look at the history of the company - management haven't been around long enough, nor has the asset been cash generative long enough, to draw any such conclusions.

[shakeypremis] 24/11/2021 17:59

No, you plank, based solely on anything said here. You use it as information to investigate and verify.

[wigwammer] 24/11/2021 17:57

??? Of course people will use an investment forum to make investment decisions. Why else would they be here?! Lol :)

[shakeypremis] 24/11/2021 17:51

If anyone is looking at what either of us say and taking using it to make investment decisions then they shouldn't be investing.

That's not what I am doing and I am not intending to mislead. That is your opinion. You have absolutely no idea about my intentions, how can you?

Done with this now.

[kaos3] 24/11/2021 17:50

after few years me being a shareholder here - no new assets, no divi, low share price, no buy backs

for experienced - how long does it take (me waiting) before I get something out of this or similar stock - or when it is clever to sell

I would guess 5 years is enough?

[wigwammer] 24/11/2021 17:42

Your argument for months has been that none of the current cash flow is being spent on material projects. But without any question, an additional project with the potential to generate around 50% of the current market cap in profit over multiple years, IS a material project. And I know exactly what entitlements are - the point is, the profit figures they give are POST entitlement, so it isn't relevant to the figures being discussed. The only reason you repeatedly bring it up is because you think it will confuse the reader, it will make them think the profits will be substantially less than they are, so its another part of your highly misleading monologue. You are knowingly misleading readers about the materiality of meseda, and about the relevance of entitlements to the related profitability of the project. And that's rather rude and unpleasant of you, isn't it?

[shakeypremis] 24/11/2021 16:50

Looking at the presentation, there is this mentioned on it regarding the Morocco strategic initiatives;

"Several strategic initiatives being progressed in Morocco to access huge gas market growth potential."

Perhaps a farm in to another asset perhaps? The offshore stuff or the stuff further east toward Algeria. Or something to do with the bottled gas market.

[shakeypremis] 24/11/2021 16:48

Entitlement is very important. You obviously don't know what it is which you really should if you are invested here. It's around 25% of gross.

80bopd x US$40 netback (very rough) x 365 days x 13 wells = ~US$15m/year operating cashflow.

Which is quite close to the US$13m figure you quote. And these new wells will decline back to current production levels by 2025. So there will not be US$13m/year for more than one year.

Just look at the market cap! Nothing they are doing is generating any interest at all because I think the market believes this company will just blow the cashflow as they have done previously.

I didn't underestimate anything, management did and that's where we get our investment thesis from in something as opaque as SDX.

Also, why can you not be civil? I doubt you'd be quite so rude to me in person.

[wigwammer] 24/11/2021 14:52

Never mind what you think the entitlement is. THEY are stating that each well will generate around $1m profit pa. That's 13 wells generating $1m profit each by 2023. That is highly material to a company with a $25m market value, isn't it?

[shakeypremis] 24/11/2021 14:25

It's not that. I've said they are worth doing, certainly, and most welcome. I just don't think 80bopd (net entitlement production) per well or whatever it's going to end up being is going to excite the market. Sure, eventually the cash being added to the balance sheet is going to have to make people buy and if SD turns out to be end of life from 2024 or whatever it is we are in the same position as now basically and maybe even no extra cash on the balance sheet because management have blown it all again. It's really on management now to turn this ship around and actually start adding cash to the balance sheet and try to expand production via an acquisition because they aren't going to achieve it at South Disouq. Hopefully SD's life can be extended a few more years, that would be great, but it really doesn't look like (at the moment at least) that it'll ever get to 100mcf/d like we had previously hoped.

[wigwammer] 24/11/2021 12:45

??? If the payback on a $0.5m investment is 6 months, and there are 13 wells, how on earth can you conclude this is immaterial production to a $25m valued company?

[shakeypremis] 24/11/2021 12:41

Spicer, he was referring to the Meseda drills that won't add much production. Something like 6-9 month payback depending on oil price. Harvest only refers to those Meseda wells. Having said that, various analyst reports indicate that 2022 will be a 'harvest' year across the whole SDX business due to lower CAPEX than previous years. You know, an actual year where SDX add some cash to the balance sheet. Analysts predict there should be several years of this in fact. Although all depends if SDX management change the game plan and decide to blow all operating cashflow. These mysterious new Morocco project may do just that. We'll have to see.

[wigwammer] 24/11/2021 12:38

Well cost $0.5m. Payback 6-7 months. Suggests circa $1m cash flow pa per well. Multiply across 13 wells = up to $13m profit contribution from this campaign starting 2023, significantly elongating profit curve. Market cap $25m. You don't need a PhD in valuation :)