Sdx Energy Share Discussion Threads

[tnt99] 03/3/2022 11:39

But this company is in a very good position for the demand for gas and oil if Russia turns off the taps or Europe tries to source from elsewhereI expect this to at least double in short order on another good RNS

[tnt99] 02/3/2022 21:06

Don't forget some are still being caught up in their 5 year fixed price contracts which are coming to an endIn the main

[haywards26] 02/3/2022 10:55

Additionally I suspect higher energy costs will impact us (SDX) like most other companies too, so some increase in costs expected?

But agree SDX should not be values below 12p

[tnt99] 02/3/2022 10:45

As far as I know they have jettisoned the fixed price deals that have come to an end and are negotiating new ones at much higher prices plus doubling production if all goes wellNo pun intended should boost the share price somewhat 35p my target

[haywards26] 02/3/2022 10:01

It is very slow to react, unlike most other O&G companies...

The fixed gas pricing probably the main reason why the share price afterburners have not yet ignited..

[tnt99] 02/3/2022 08:07

Current poo ang gas prices should mean bumper profits this one going to the moon ? ? ?

[ashkv] 01/3/2022 06:31

Insanely cheap - Has to go up. I will be adding despite management.

Guidance for West Gharib Net Entitlement Production is up to 500 barrels for 2022 with guidance of SDX Net Entitlement 1000 barrels for early 2023 (Gross 4000 barrels with 25% to SDX 75% to Egyptian Government).
To attain this a very active drilling program in underway with the current drill result announced on 28 Feb with better than expected results brooking no response in SDX Share Price ..... go figure.
Keep in mind for West Gharib operational costs are very low and most of WG oil revenue is pure profit. The cost of wells is offset from the Egyptian government share of revenue (75% of total production from West Gharib) so actual cost to SDX is not much.

Also there are two drills upcoming in South Disouq followed by a share buyback in a few months - the chance of success for one of the two wells to come good is 67% and would be hugely positive for SD revenue stream. Moreover Morocco is no longer a cash drain as a corporate customer that was not paying an adequate rate for Morocco gas from SDX has been dropped unless they agree to higher rates - Morocco will no longer suck Capex and is self funding... any drilling upside is not factored in..

At 500bpd for West Gharib - 500 * $100 Brent * 365 Days = $18,250,000 dollars at early 2023 guidance of 1000 barrels (Net) we have SDX revenue of $36.5 million dollars at $100 oil (most of it pure profit) from West Gharib....)

This when per below calcs - SDX is effectively valued at 0 Enterprise Value... What is the downside scenario here? I calculate only upside unless a big unforeseen...

Brent: $100.00
Share Price: 8.2
Shares Outstanding: 205,378,069
GBPUSD Exch Rate: 1.342
Market Cap GBP: £16,841,002
Market Cap USD: $22,600,624
Debt: $0 - NO DEBT FOR SDX
Cash (1 Feb 2022 Operational Update: $10,600,000
Inventory (2021 Half Year Figures): $7,640,000
Investments (Egyptian Oil Services Firm per 2021 HY Report : $4,013,000
Enterprise Value(EV) (Only Subtracting Cash): $12,000,624
Enterprise Value(EV) Sub (Cash+Inventory+Investment): $347,624
Prod Guidance 2022 (3,300 - 3,550 Mid is 3,425): 3,425
EV/Barrel-USD (Cash): $3,504
EV/Barrel-USD (Cash+Inventory+Inv): $101 (HUNDRED DOLLARS ENTERPRISE VALUE PER BARREL PRETTY MUCH A NEAR ZERO VALUE ON SDX BUSINESS)

[tnt99] 28/2/2022 07:10

Millionaire maker this one at these crazy low prices true value will out in the end my exit price 35p on expected good news and buy backs

[tnt99] 25/2/2022 13:01

Bought some more let's hope production doubles in this great environment for oil and gas

[ashkv] 22/2/2022 16:46

Ridiculous share price persists at $100 oil / or thereabouts -madness seems to be the case across the spectrum of E&P firms... case in point HBR, TRIN etc - only highly leveraged firms seeming to benefit...

500bpd of entitlement production is top end of guidance for 2022 which I expect SDX to exceed for West Gharib given the multiple wells in the offing - ergo a $1 increase in Brent translates to $1 * 500bpd * 365 = $182,500 dollars on an annualized

Given current market cap and GBPUSD - a $1 increase in brent is increasing profit by nearly 1% of market cap based on 8 share price where SDX has nearly 0 Enterprise Value... what a humongous management and industry discount...

Brent: $96.50
Share Price: 8.05
Shares Outstanding: 205,378,069
GBPUSD Exch Rate: 1.36
Market Cap GBP: £16,532,935
Market Cap USD: $22,484,791
Debt: $0
Cash (1 Feb 2022 Operational Update): $10,600,000
Inventory (2021 Half Year Figures): $7,640,000
Investments (Egyptian Oil Services Firm per 2021 HY Report): $4,013,000
Enterprise Value(EV) (Only Subtracting Cash): $11,884,791
Enterprise Value(EV) Sub (Cash+Inventory+Investment): $231,791
Prod Guidance 2022 (3,300 - 3,550 Mid is 3,425): 3,425
EV/Barrel-USD (Cash): $3,470
EV/Barrel-USD (Cash+Inventory+Inv): $68
(Minimal Decommissioning Costs)

[winnet] 22/2/2022 12:09

I did ask this question about contract life before but got no answer.

When can we renegotiate in Morrocco? Will they still buy the gas? Can we not transport it to better markets? I guess we are tied in?

[tnt99] 22/2/2022 11:00

New contracts at much higher prices to be announced and share buy back should boost this share in the coming months back to true value of at least 22p millionaire maker this one at the prices with pop going over 100 dollars a barrel

[fireplace22] 22/2/2022 09:17

P(A|B) = P(A) = 0.4, since A and B are independent.

Similarly P(B|A) = P(B) = 0.45.

P(A and B) = P(A)*P(B) = 0.4*0.45 = 0.18.

P( A or B) = P(A) + P(B) - P(AB) = 0.4 + 0.45 - 0.18 = 0.67.

First independent event 0.4, second independent event 0.45,

So 0.45 x 0.4 = 0.18

COS of one event coming in from the two is 0.4 + 0.45 - 0.18 = 0.67.


So 67% COS from one of the wells coming in and 18% from both coming in and 33% chance of neither.

[fireplace22] 22/2/2022 09:07

If you multiply the probabilities that gives the overall chance of success of BOTH events occurring. From #8997 the chance of rain happening in BOTH NY and London is 25%, but in one out of the two it's 75%

[tnt99] 18/2/2022 09:10

Thanks for the maths lesson now by how much is the share price going up if both wells come in?

[thegreatgeraldo] 16/2/2022 10:57

ashkv..... for 2 independent events, the chance of success in one is found by multiplying the probabilities..... so 0.4 x 0.45.... COS = 0.18

[tnt99] 15/2/2022 20:32

Pushing higher me thinks

[tnt99] 14/2/2022 22:05

The worm is ready to turn on new contracts for a valuable in demand resource

[ride daice] 12/2/2022 16:27

Why not think about it in a different way.

Let's say that the chance of it raining in London today is 50%.
And the chance of it raining in New York is also 50%.

If probability were additive then based on the above it would be an absolute certainty that it is going to rain in either London or New York today.