Solgold Share Discussion Threads

[mam fach] 17/11/2020 15:56

At last. Rumour mill raising price.
Last chance to top up.
Tomorrow might be too late.( Now that's first time i've said that.)

[rougepierre] 17/11/2020 15:54

And through 38...

[bogotatrader] 17/11/2020 15:53

Through 38p

[mknight] 17/11/2020 15:53

Small road block of 65k at 37.5 then 38p

[rougepierre] 17/11/2020 15:48

Can only buy 5,000 at 37.43...next stop 38...?

Bid for 200,000

[amunro] 17/11/2020 15:48

Creeping up. Wonder what someone knows (or thinks they know)?

[rougepierre] 17/11/2020 15:40

Bid for 300,000...can only buy 100,000 at 37.4...

[rougepierre] 17/11/2020 15:36

There we go....now can we break 37.5...?

[rougepierre] 17/11/2020 15:32

Ready to break 37...?

37.4 to buy 100,000...was 200,000 just a moment ago...

[rougepierre] 17/11/2020 15:26

From iceberg article a year ago...

"The BHP deal has allowed SOLG to safely fulfil its ambition of a meaningful and speedy monitisation of Cascabel. This will allow SOLG to maintain a sizeable exposure to one of the most important copper projects of the 2020’s.

SOLG will have the capital to quickly progress some of its other potential Tier 1 assets.

There are a number of important share price power ups. The BHP deal is one. The MRE will be another, the PFS a third. Regional developments will be a forth and a partial sale of Cascabel the final, crowning glory. "

hxxp://icebergshares.blogspot.com/2019/11/the-battle-for-sol-gold-in-ecuador.html

[the count of monte_cristo] 17/11/2020 15:26

Who has the bigger clout with the Ecuadorian government, BHP or the Chinese?

Just look at how the Chinese are trying to shut Australia up about the investigation of where the virus came from by stopping the imports of beef, coal, grains, etc.

If the Chinese want SOLG, then please pay and make me wealthy:)

[dozyduck] 17/11/2020 15:11

LT - 'fraid not. Paying $4bn now would produce considerably less than an 8% return (on the same figures) because the PEA calculated it from the start of construction - 3-4 years away so discounted at 8% for another 4 years = 26% off the Post construction value. ie the 8% NPV TODAY is only $3.3bn and not $4.5bn. Its why basing a valuation on an NPV is always nonsense. What acquires will want to know is the year by year cash flow which you can't tell from an NPV

[mknight] 17/11/2020 15:09

Tibszol1.

Difficult question .

I donot have an answer but if i was BHP i would tell them no deal . If they let the Chinese in then they will be toast in a few years Copper is going to be short so i would stand up to the chinese .

[tibszol1] 17/11/2020 15:04

MK
Who is BHP biggest customer? China!!! It would not be beyond the bounds of possibility that Beijing might blackmail BHP into stepping aside in any direct head to head battle for control of Solgold if Beijing considers that Solgold and its copper is of national interest, they have no qualms in blackmailing Australia so BHP would not present a problem to them. Also please remember that shareholders and not NM, despite his substantial holding, will in the end decide Solgolds fate, I as a modest shareholder only hope that the eventual price will truly reflect the fantastic potential value of Solgolds entire Ecuadorean portfolio.

[mknight] 17/11/2020 14:58

Should get some porvenir news this week as it must be getting close to 1500m if its still drilling . Would they continue if the mineralisation is good .
How low will they go .

What would that do to the share price ?

[rougepierre] 17/11/2020 14:49

swan...because they just did an equity raise...they've ground to a halt since...

[lowtrawler] 17/11/2020 14:48

Good arguments on why both the Chinese and BHP would be desperate to win any bidding war. We still don't have a bid.

Accepting the arguments, where could the price reach? An NPV at 8% for Alpala gives a value of $4bn, so BHP could pay $4bn and achieve an 8% return on Alpala alone, assuming nothing unexpected happens. We expect Porvenir will likely be more valuable than Alpala but, at the moment, any view to this effect would be a gamble. With backs against the wall, would BHP gamble and add a further $4bn? We still have Rio and all our other sites, could they be worth another $4bn?

As you can see, it's quite easy to get carried away and start projecting bids of 4, 8, 12 billion dollars or more. If it gets very competitive, who knows?

In my view, a bidder looking to make a knockout bid would be willing to pay full price for Alpala hoping to make their returns on Porvenir and the other sites. Thus $4bn should be realistic which works out around 140p. Will anyone step forward to open bids or will the bid talk fizzle out?

[zoros1] 17/11/2020 14:44

MK:
Buy DGR and CGP and open market.
If that doesn't work - blackmail the ecuadorian government ;)
Z

[swanvesta] 17/11/2020 14:44

DGR is interesting. Why is the share price so weak relative to their holding in SOLG?

[mknight] 17/11/2020 14:40

Zoros1

That would give them 10% the same as Bhp and Newcrest more or less but it wouldnt get Solgold .

[mknight] 17/11/2020 14:37

The Chinese are not stupid , they will pay a fair price but not over the top .BHP need to defend their market .where are BHP going to sell their goods if the Chinese dont need them ?

[zoros1] 17/11/2020 14:22

MK - yes at what price? BHP have a budget, the chinese don't!
There is another way in...thru the back door......DGR....
Z

[mknight] 17/11/2020 14:06

Tibszol1

BHP cannot let the Chinese into the market with a tier 1 deposit . BHP will have to buy it even if they never mine it for 10 years . Its their biggest customer , if they dont buy the likes of Solgold when they are in pole position they should not be in the business . Infact if they let it go they wont be in the business as long as they want to be because without customers they dont have a business .

[michaelfenton] 17/11/2020 14:05

Looking at things from Mather's viewpoint. Surely given his history he is angling for a takeover or at least the sale of some parts of the substantial assets. No way will he let things go for less than 100p given the queue forming and with Chinese interest it could end up considerably higher?