Soco Share Discussion Threads

[0rient] 07/3/2019 19:23

Over a million shares traded today..we have not seen that in a long time. Something i see as being very positive as finally we are getting the volume to clear the obvious overhang created from the drip drip seller 👍🏻

[wdkeyes] 07/3/2019 18:28

In general we can't hope to know
What direction shares will go
So though we read what people write
Keep in mind it's mostly shi..

[russiaguru] 07/3/2019 14:22

when buywell says you need to sell
you should just tell him to go to hell
as his doctor has always said
there is something wrong going on in his head
and hence the advice he gives out
always ends in a rout

[0rient] 07/3/2019 14:06

Broker Peel Hunt said yesterday that its sticking with its ADD position on SOCO & 130p target remains unchanged!

We just need to clear this seller, i don't believe its retail investors..larger volume today so maybe close to doing so 👍🏻

[linton5] 07/3/2019 10:45

It’s coming for you pal,my ammo is ready also

[buywell2] 07/3/2019 07:29

Can we have 66.6p again please ?
It makes me go weak to my knees
I like that one lots and lots
So much in fact I get the hots


an ode by buywell
2019 AD

[hugepants] 06/3/2019 20:54

Gr4at dividemd here which I reckon will at least support the share price at the current level. Can't think of any O&G stocks, outwith the majors, that pays a significant dividend.

[dunderheed] 06/3/2019 19:25

Yes so it's the same word different tense!
Jocularly said I hasten to add.

[nigelpm] 06/3/2019 19:17

It's actually the same word isn't it!

No!

One is past tense the other present tense.

[emptyend] 06/3/2019 18:49

.......no adjustment there for c. 90p/share distributed to shareholders......

[dunderheed] 06/3/2019 18:08

It's actually the same word isn't it!

[nigelpm] 06/3/2019 17:13

One word you need to correct - "says" to "said"

[buywell2] 06/3/2019 16:14

Mr Market says

[emptyend] 06/3/2019 15:10

Kenobi, There is some very interesting detail in the presentation this time, especially on the compressor issue which shows that 93% of the problems are caused by a third-party well....and when all the third-party wells are shut in then the TGT production increases by 1500bopd. Material, IMO, but what it shows is that the access agreement for third-party to use the FPSO (currently being renegotiated) is likely to be at least as important as the compressor remediation. That may well account for the delay to doing the work - because perhaps the scope of the work depends on the access constraints for TGD.Also of interest is the clarification over licence expiries, including reference to the 5-year extensions. First time I've seen that in print.....

[brwo349] 06/3/2019 11:36

Wise words Obi Wan. Wise words.

May the farce be with you.

[kenobi] 06/3/2019 11:30

yes the compressor issue has been rumbling on for ages, considering it's been given as the excuse why the "transformative" water handling changes to get rid of the water bottle neck don't seem to have produced a turn around in production you would think that this would be higher priority than it seems to be.

The last thing that we heard was that it was due to the gas or something specific from one of the partner wells, and that it was being managed, by more flaring of gas or some other actions.

First of all, the water handling facilities never looked to be transformational to me, but I thought it might have helped. Then we have this issue, but they tell us they are mitigating it, well not so well as production isn't picking up. I am skeptical that this is as big an issue as we're being told, and that the compressor fix isn't going to make that much difference. I hope to be proved wrong. Upside on soco isn't going to come from vietnam. There's a chance of a well in 125/6, but my understanding was that they would only drill that soon if ENI had success in the block next door, so drilling it isn't even certain. Even if they do, it's effectively a wild cat, it might come to something, but most likely not, too early to count that as any kind of value. Where there seems to be value is in Egypt, and I suspect that the focus will be on proving up and securing as much acreage as possible, and getting production up as high as possible. Then there's other deals, and it's pretty clear that this is a swan, there might not be seen to be much going on above the surface, but down below, there's work going on as indicated by todays RNS about the approach for Ophir ,

We'll hear warm words, about relationships and getting things done, but it's clear, at least for the time being, until there are changes of personel in vietnam, it's going to be slow going.

[stemis] 06/3/2019 11:13

Emptyend - possibly although one might believe that untested plays on the Merlon concession are already in the acquisition price. As to Blocks 125 & 126 what is the cost of acquiring seismic/drilling etc v the risked potential. Presumably there's a downside if turns out not to be commercial.

[nigelpm] 06/3/2019 09:42

Lots of hedge funds taking positions so certainly not done. This will add some interest I suspect. I saw both as supremely undervalued so a tie up would have made perfect sense and a logical route to improving shareholder value if executed well.

[emptyend] 06/3/2019 09:15

Put another way, SteMIS, any and all growth opportunities in the portfolio are in for free at current prices..........both 125/6 and the untested plays on the Merlon concession have c. 500mn bbl potential each and, by year-end 2019, these should be beginning to be scoped out.

[emptyend] 06/3/2019 09:11

...mmmm...re OPHR it is OPHR who decided to prefer the MedCo cash deal. That has yet to complete and, whilst all appears to be going ahead from a market standpoint, I suspect it is possible that not all the CPs get satisfied (have you seen the list Nigel? I have not).If Merlon completes and Ophir/Medco doesn't then who knows? I'm not up to speed, though, due to being away in recent weeks.

[emptyend] 06/3/2019 08:52

So.....pre-Merlon.....mkt cap at 70p is £232.4mn, which is $304mn at 1.31. Compare that with net assets (after impairments and after year-end tests for impairment) of $501 mn. Virtually all of that is now represented by producing assets (in contrast to the position for most of the recent past whereby the net assets have been largely intangibles).Of that $304mn, $140mn is net cash after allowing for the RBL drawing. Year end net cash for 2019 seems likely to be similar, after allowing for Merlon completion (with cash payment largely covered by the RBL and 2019 operating cashflow).The dividend yield at 70p is now exactly 8%, with the dividend roughly fully covered by post-tax profits.Very robust balance sheet for the sector, IMO, with some possibility of getting stronger in the event of licence extensions on producing assets.Turning to the upside, I note the intriguingly limited comment about the HPHT potential below TGT and that oil flowed to surface. IMO there is likely to be an angle here re a licence extension.I also note the plan for 2D mid-year on 125/6, so would guess they will have an interpretation by Q4 - right around the time when ENI will drill in the adjacent block, IIRC. Should lead to drilling in 2020?And then we have Merlon. Pre-completion, there is still not much that can be said. But following completion in Q2 (most likely) I would expect to see some quite aggressive drilling plans announced, starting in Q3.In sum, no surprises and quite a bit of newsflow due in the rest on the year (including the much-delayed compressor work on TGT, though I wouldn't bet the house on the Q4 indicative timing). And an 8% yield, with a 40% discount to net assets.

[stemis] 06/3/2019 08:11

Crudely, don't SIA have 8 years of production left in TGT and CNV 2P reserves at last year's level of production?

Cash reserves equate to 33p a share.

8 years of 5.5p a share equates to 44p. Discount it at 5% gives 37p.

So 70p doesn't look far away from reasonable...and that's roughly where they are.

The investment case seems to be that Merlon is worth more than they are paying for it and/or that they'll convert a lot of 2C into 2P. The market seems yet to be convinced. Hard to get excited.

[nigelpm] 06/3/2019 07:45

Good set of numbers and strong signal with the dividend of 5.5p

I'd expect the sellers to be fully satisfied today if they are willing to accept <70p

[0rient] 06/3/2019 07:30

Why? 8% dividend, cash rich, Merlin deal close to completion & will make us a growth company again..lots of reasons to buy down here

[buywell2] 06/3/2019 07:26

Why ? I pick the 6500 cos it's there to be picked

OUTLOOK FOR 2019

-- Production guidance, maintained at 6,500 to 7,500 boepd net