Soco Share Discussion Threads

[kenmitch] 18/1/2019 20:48

nigelpm

You have no knowledge about my level of competence. Others who have would contradict you as I’ve run portfolios elsewhere that have way outperformed markets or relevant benchmarks, and like many competent and experienced private investors my own portfolio often outperforms as well.

As for my opinions on buybacks. They are not misguided or unninformed. On the contrary I have frequently referred to informed research about them. And they are just my opinions. I’m entitled to express opinions and so are you. I base mine on facts and appropriate research.

It is commenting on my competence without having a clue about it that shows an uninformed and misguided opinion!

And obviously for Soco my objection to buybacks at 3 or 4 times the current share price has proved far better than your misguided enthusiasm for them.

Wild accusations not based on facts don’t show you in a very good light!

[nigelpm] 18/1/2019 20:13

As I said earlier your level of competence by comparison to ee is world's apart - you have shown through your regular ranting about share buybacks to be incredibly misguided and uninformed.

[kenmitch] 18/1/2019 17:08

ee.

It's not drivel at all. It's investment basics that all experienced investors should understand. Investment basics like not falling in love with shares and failing to see negatives that are staring us in the face, and then, as a result, seeing huge profits disaappear, as has happened to you with Soco. I used to make exactly the same mistake.

Acknowledging our mistakes, learning from them and trying not to repeat them is the way to improve investment performance. It is not drivel.

[dunderheed] 18/1/2019 17:07

I think there's a slight difference between leaving the EU and SIA buying into a few assets which a lot of other companies seemed to have done quite successfully during this period, also whose respective mgt teams probably had a much less "enticing package" than that at SIA?

[emptyend] 18/1/2019 15:48

It is all very easy from the armchair. The reality is that deals take two to tango (EU deals being a case in point after 2.5 years of mucking about...and still nothing settled)

[dunderheed] 18/1/2019 14:36

Certainly not that one!

[greyingsurfer] 18/1/2019 14:33

So what deals would you have made, D

[dunderheed] 18/1/2019 14:30

EE this is the point to the drivel you refer to.

During this period of 'low' oil price was the time to take advantage of no debt and relatively high cash position.
Something the mgt patently did not do and it looks, based upon crystallised deals to date, to long continue as such.

The Merlon deal was all the 'dream team' could come up with after a year?
Seriously are you impressed with that?

[emptyend] 18/1/2019 13:39

My point re some of this drivel, is that in broad terms one would have done as badly or worse in recent years with ANY E&P.....i.e. the fall has not been (in broad terms) company-specific. Since 2014 capital would have been better-employed outside the oil sector - period.The only question that matters is whether that is still the case.

[kenmitch] 18/1/2019 10:44

True. It was just used as an example and I’m not keen on stop losses including for the reason you gave. Prefer to base investment decisions on news etc.

[stepone68] 18/1/2019 10:28

"That's a difference/loss of £650thousand if luckily deciding to sell at the top and still around £half a million if selling on, say, a 20% stop loss."

Not strictly relevant to your argument, but you would have been out years earlier with next to no profit if you had used a 20% stop loss.

[kenmitch] 18/1/2019 10:12

emptyend

I'm a great believer in dividends and as shown so clearly by Lord John Lee, a share can in time pay back far more than the initial investment -every year!!

e.g anyone who bought NEXT around the 10p lows many years ago, would now be receiving in dividends alone around 150 times their original investment, and again EVERY year! And the share price is up around 4000 times.

Soco is currently up around 10 times from your original bargain buy price, and that's down from around 75 times.

Your 12 times an initial investment in Soco from dividends is impressive, but pales in to insignificance compared with how brilliant it COULD have been.

Say an investor invested £10000 in Soco at a bargain priced 7.5p.

75 times £10000 is £750thousand.

Now the Soco gain is just 10 times. £100thousand.

That's a difference/loss of £650thousand if luckily deciding to sell at the top and still around £half a million if selling on, say, a 20% stop loss.

It's just my opinion and you and everyone else is entitled to disagree, but it strongly suggests falling in love with a share can prove very costly.

But also agree that that's in the past and what matters far more is how and when current shareholders will see a decent return on their investment.

[dunderheed] 18/1/2019 09:16

CNE certainly cannot be included as debt run company EE?
Admittedly they may have to take on some debt for SNE development as they don't appear to be selling this down (or can't) atm?
What people get upset about here (or one of the main things) is the assumed opportunity cost of lost potential deals during the past few years, imho.
I personally think this is down to the issue that the mgt team simply do not have the business connections required to crystallise this?
We have the dynamic duo effectively running BD now and what BD work have they achieved previously?
Not saying this strategy will not come good but "experience" to date does not look to be the case?
All imho of course and genuinely interested in others views?

[emptyend] 18/1/2019 09:07

Indeed Tomke. If people would stop making ludicrous personal attacks, then I wouldn't mention it. It remains the case that the total return over the last 20 years from SIA has been significantly better than the PMO, TLW, CNE then peer group, mainly because SIA has returned material cash to shareholders whereas the others have not - and have also mostly continued to run with £bn+ debts. SIA have focused on shareholder returns not on the growth of their balance sheet footings.

[tomke22] 18/1/2019 09:00

It really does not matter now whether Soco was a good or bad investment unless you are point scoring or point defending.

The accountants have a term called 'sunk costs'.
hxxps://www.investopedia.com/terms/s/sunkcost.asp
"A sunk cost is a cost that has already been incurred and cannot be recovered.".

The oil market is currently experiencing massive turbulence.
hxxps://oilprice.com/Energy/Oil-Prices/Whats-Behind-Oils-Slow-Flash-Crash.html
..Crude oil prices declined forty percent between October 1 and Christmas Day in 2018...

The decision an investor in Soco is faced with is whether they wish to sell at the share price now or hold in the expectation of a better price in the future. Soco is profitable and produces relatively low cost oil and so can survive at when oil is $55 a barrel.


Tom

[richalert] 17/1/2019 22:20

Not for me they haven't. EE.

[nigelpm] 17/1/2019 21:48

Kenmitch getting owned again by ee - common story that one.

[emptyend] 17/1/2019 20:56

Dividends have returned roughly 12x the initial investment during the last 5 years.

[kenmitch] 17/1/2019 19:26

Orient.

Dividends are small beer when compared to a 90% fall in the share price.

I used to make the mistake of losing all the gains and even down to zero,in the face of endless evidence which should have persuaded me to sell, but realised not to do it years ago.

The shrewd Soco investors also got out years ago. Learning from mistakes is a key to successful investing and ahead of detailed technical knowledge too. That counts for nothing if the Company persistently disappoints as Soco has for years now.

But I do currently hold Soco.... as looks too cheap. Thought that at £1 too but cut a loss then. Current holding was bought at current price as believe (for now) that the dividend should prevent much further downside.

[kenmitch] 17/1/2019 17:57

Editor’s view article in Shares Magazine today is worth a read.

Headline for it is “The importance of having an open mind when investing.”

Sub heading was “Don’t get emotionally attached to stocks as you may be blind to big changes.”

And key point was:-

“If someone has backed a winner, many stay committed when times get harder and are blinkered to problems when they emerge”

Hmmmhhh!

[0rient] 17/1/2019 17:53

Fair play to you emptyend :-) That's what you call a long term position! I imagine your ROI must be very large with all the divi's too..still painful though watching it drip drip downwards.

[kasg] 17/1/2019 17:25

So they have gone up from 7.5p to 70p. They have also gone down from 600p to 70p!

[emptyend] 17/1/2019 16:45

......20 years in two weeks time. Bought at 7.5p ?

[binarypilot] 16/1/2019 13:40

Emptyend,
how you can you devote your life to this terrible investment.

You need to admit youve made a big mistake, get out while you still have something, and do something else with your life, before its too late.